8/7: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 8/7/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #1 KLICKITAT 2ND #6 SPIRITUAL KING 3RD #7 PETRUS

#1 KLICKITAT has the look of a career maiden, but ran a big race last time out on closing day of the Belmont spring-summer meet. He was on the lead that day but doesn’t need to be and will graduate with a similar effort. #6 SPIRITUAL KING goes 2nd off a layoff after sprinting last time out and should be forwardly placed today. If he runs back to either of the Gulfstream efforts earlier this year he can be a threat. #7 PETRUS might be a tad more involved early with the addition of blinkers this afternoon and needs to be based on his first two outings.

Race 2- 1st #7 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE 2ND #6 COTTON 3RD #1 COBRA KAI

#7 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE set a fast pace last time out before weakening late and now returns with experience under her belt. She should get command in here unless another rival shows big early speed. #6 COTTON is a second timer who outfinished the top pick when they met on July 12 and she now has the edge of some experience. With a move forward at second asking she can be a major threat. #1 COBRA KAI is a firster by Strong Mandate, whose progeny win on debut at a 8% clip. He is a half to Durkin’s Call, a mildly accomplished NY bred. This barn has gone cold, but he has done his best work with firsters in the past.

Race 3- 1st #7 SEEKING REVENGE 2ND #2 MUSIC OF LIFE 3RD #6 SUN SUMMERS

#7 SEEKING REVENGE has been facing considerably better of late for John Stephens and now gets a needed class drop. This daughter of Clubhouse Ride is going to need some pace to run at late, but will offer far more value than the other win candidates. #2 MUSIC OF LIFE is the one to beat given her recent efforts at Gulfstream. This is the right class level, but the move in for a tag is a negative and this barn has been cold of late. #6 SUN SUMMERS beat a putrid field last time out at Belmont and was claimed out of that affair. She will need to move forward, but retains Irad Ortiz, Jr. and this barn has been on a tear.

Race 4- 1st #5 HALO CITY 2ND #7 BASELINE DRIVE 3RD #6 HOT BUTTON

#5 HALO CITY drops in class and faces drastically weaker foes than she has in her last two outings. This gal showed increased speed last time out to no avail, but just might find herself dictating terms early in here if Kendrick Carmouche so chooses. #7 BASELINE DRIVE was away poorly then raced wide against Fla breds on debut and is now in for a tag. There’s some talent here, but she’ll be over bet without question. #6 HOT BUTTON is a firster by Summer Front, whose progeny win on debut at a 12% clip. The dam here won thrice on turf and has dropped one grass winner from as many to try.

Race 5- 1ST #7 SKAMANIA 2ND #2 HONOR WAY 3RD #4 KEPT TRUE

If #7 SKAMANIA runs back to her last, then these rivals are bidding for second. She ran huge contesting a vicious pace that completely collapsed before hanging in gamely for third. Look for her to be ridden aggressively today. #2 HONOR WAY is a hard-knocking veteran who gets needed class relief following a modest effort in the Shine Again. She was compromised by the extremely slow pace that day and should get a bit better setup here. #4 KEPT TRUE can keep the top pick honest if Dylan Davis so chooses, as this daughter of Yes It’s True has plenty of speed. She was in excellent form before going to the sidelines and has plenty of back form to be considered a major contender here.



Race 6- 1st #10 CREDIT ENHANCEMENT 2ND #5 ROYAL APPROVAL 3RD #8 ARMY WIFE

#10 CREDIT ENHANCEMENT is by More Than Ready, one of the best producers of young talent in the game. The dam here was unraced, and this gal is kin to Teachable Moment, who was also owned and trained by these connections. #5 ROYAL APPROVAL is back stateside after a failed trip to England for the Queen Mary. That was an ambitious placing and she’s back where she belongs for a barn that is having a good meet. #8 ARMY WIFE is by Declaration of War, and this gal worked :10 and 1/5 at the OBS April sale. She is training forwardly and this barn is rolling at the meet.

Race 7- 1st #6 EXCESS CAPACITY 2ND #7 MO FLASH 3RD #3 ARCHUMYBABY

#6 EXCESS CAPACITY is cutting back in distance after racing wide last time out against considerably tougher competition. Sprinting is her best game and the leading rider at the meet takes the call today. #7 MO FLASH dominated a weaker field on the front end last time out and should be forwardly placed again. Other than a poor effort when she broke poorly and raced on a dead rail back on June 19, this mare has been remarkably consistent. #3 ARCHUMYBABY starts for the red-hot Orlando Noda, whose horses seem to be e moving forward a great deal at the Spa. They are all “must use” types until further notice.

Race 8- 1st #5 GIACOSA 2ND #1 SILKY BLUE 3RD #8 AMOS

#5 GIACOSA got no pace help last time out when trying to rally from well off of it and now lands in a race with a good amount of early speed. She has blossomed as a 3YO for underrated trainer H. James Bond and will be a fair price in this spot. #1 SILKY BLUE is deserving of a look stretching out off a game maiden win. The filly she beat came back to win a NY stallion race here last month and trainer Jorge Duarte is 17% with turfers stretching out from sprints to routes ($2.26 ROI). #8 AMOS enjoyed a sweet trip last time out before getting collared late and probably proved that day she’s better sprinting. Her best races make her a contender here.

Race 9- 1st #10 JACKIE’S WARRIOR 2ND #9 THERIDEOFALIFETIME 3RD #6 CAZADERO

#10 JACKIE’S WARRIOR was extremely impressive winning on debut against MSW foes at Churchill. He looked beaten inside the quarter pole before re-rallying and now draws favorably for a stalk and pounce trip. #9 THERIDEOFALIFETIME was beaten by the top pick on debut then came back to subjugate a field of maidens at Keeneland. He is speedy but can rate just off the pace and that’s a positive given the way this race shapes up on paper. #6 CAZADERO is a favorite worth trying to beat given he dispatched a weak field last time out in the Bashford Manor. He is capable of stepping forward but his stablemate has out-worked him in the mornings recently.

Race 10- 1st #1 JASMINESQUE 2ND #4 TESORINA 3RD #7 MORALITY CLAUSE

#1 JASMINESQUE is a late runner who got no pace help last time out and now drops back in for a tag. Barn has quietly had a good run at the Spa and there’s pace in here. #4 TESORINA comes back from a long layoff after showing life on debut at the Big A. Trainer Wesley Ward is 24% with turfers off 365+ day breaks ($2.63 ROI). #7 MORALITY CLAUSE takes the biggest class drop in racing and should be forwardly placed going a trip where speed is a weapon.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 153-30-27-28 $196.80

[moses]

Thanks Steve and Nick. A lot of people seem to like Jackie’s Warrior. Hopefully he still ends up around 7/2 but I’m thinking he’ll be closer to 2/1.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dancer

Would bet Cazadero Papetu and Therideof ... before I'd touch Jackie ...

Good call