8/8: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 8/8/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #4 BAY STREET MONEY 2ND #5 COMPLIANT 3RD #2 DOSWELL

#4 BAY STREET MONEY made the only meaningful off the pace move last time out going longer at Belmont and now races with Lasix for the first time. This barn has heated up of late and you can count on this son of Street Sense to be moving late. #5 COMPLIANT returns off a lengthy layoff after showing 3YO form that’s strong enough to win this heat. Trainer Chad Brown is a tremendous 37% with maiden turf routers off 180+ day breaks ($3.48 ROI). #2 DOSWELL is a former Chad Brown trainee who is now in the care of Barclay Tagg. He has had trouble sealing the deal in the past, but drew favorably in a race where he’ll go favored.

Race 2- 1st #1-1A ATRAS ENTRY 2ND #5 AMERICAN LINCOLN 3RD #6 CREATIVE STYLE

#1A MUSICAL HEART is the half of a coupled entry that stands out on paper, as this son of Maclean’s Music was most recently seen missing at a lower level. He was taken that day by Rob Atras, who is 29% with dirt routers first off of claims ($2.15 ROI) and this gelding has the speed to get control early. #5 AMERICAN LINCOLN is a pace player as he exits a 40k seller downstate where they flew early. He is quick enough to get the lead in here if apprentice Luis Cardenas so chooses and that would help his chances as a live longshot. #6 CREATIVE STYLE rallied wide on a surface where the rail was the place to be last time out and now stretches out in distance again. He is a late threat who’ll be helped if the pace heats up and it could be fair.

Race 3- 1st #3 RISKY MISCHIEF 2ND #9 LIGHT IN THE SKY 3RD #1 VIOLENT POINT

#3 RISKY MISCHIEF is the one to catch and might move forward on turf given her pedigree and the fact she handled a sealed surface so well on debut. The dam never turfed, but is kin to the dam of multiple turf sprint winners including Swayed and Pink Freud Live. This filly’s lone sibling placed on turf in the UK and won on the synthetic at Dundalk for Aidan O’Brien. #9 LIGHT IN THE SKY is the one to beat, but figures to get only a moderate pace to run at late. She has been second in consecutive starts off the bench and will be a heavy favorite today, which provides no bargain. #1 VIOLENT POINT lost all chance at the start last time out and will likely be more effective at the shorter sprint distance given she can settle and make one run.

Race 4- 1st #5 HIEROGLYPHICS 2ND #2 SIDING SPRING 3RD #8 GOLDEN SPEAR

#5 HIEROGLYPHICS received a comically bad ride last time out at Gulfstream and now goes 2nd off a layoff. He was stuck in heavy traffic before getting extricated from that spot when it was too late. He can be closer to the pace early, especially in an event where there is not a great deal of early zip. #2 SIDING SPRING is the one to catch as he contested a brutal pace last time out before tiring late. He goes 2nd off a layoff today and drew favorably to get command from the start. #8 GOLDEN SPEAR rallied well from off a moderate pace that largely held together in his last start. He goes 2nd off a lengthy layoff today and has been given some time since that race to move forward.

Race 5- 1ST #6 BOTTLE ROCKET MAN 2ND #7 MUTASAABEQ 3RD #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG

#6 BOTTLE ROCKET MAN is a firster by Into Mischief out of a dam who is a half to Munnings. The workout reports on this colt are positive, and he will offer some value given the presence of #7 MUTASAABEQ. That son of Into Mischief is training forwardly and went for 425k in 2018 despite having little pedigree. There’s clearly some interest on Todd Pletcher’s part to do well for this new client and this colt drew well on the outside. #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG is kin to 6 winners, including June stakes winner Honey I’m Good. Progeny of Shackleford win their 2YO debuts at a 12% clip and the dam here was a 4x winner.

Race 6- 1st #10 FIRE AT WILL 2ND #1 SECRET OPTION 3RD #2 PIVOTAL MISSION

#10 FIRE AT WILL drew poorly, but has some pedigree and will offer value. This colt is by Declaration of War, a 14% debut sire and his dam is a half to multiple graded stake winner Decorated Invader. That’s enough to give him a lengthy look in a competitive affair. #1 SECRET POTION drew well and has a huge 2nd family turf pedigree. He is by Into Mischief and looks to be training well for a barn that is long overdue to get things rolling at this meet. #2 PIVOTAL MISSION endured a brutal trip last time out as he was spun out very wide on the turn and he should benefit from having that race behind him. His trainer winning a race yesterday after starting the meet poorly feels like a very good sign.



Race 7- 1st #6 PINK SANDS 2ND #5 LETRUSKA 3RD #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS

#6 PINK SANDS is going to have to improve significantly to win here, but figures to get an enormous pace setup and now has Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard. She had no chance last time out against tougher going long and now lands in a weaker than par version of this Grade I staple. Look for her late at a price. #5 LETRUSKA is the interesting wild card in this field given the strength of her efforts in the US. She has ample speed, but should find herself in a position to sit just off the pace today under the pilot who won with her in April. #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS is the only runner in the field who is quick enough to clear, but she will likely pay a heavy price for doing so. Her effort in last year’s Test was tremendous and that’s enough to give her an extra look today.

Race 8- 1ST #7 CHEWING GUM 2ND #6 PULSATE 3RD #2 AMERICAN SAILOR

#7 CHEWING GUM and #6 PULSATE ran virtually the same race in a tough optional seller last month at Belmont. The former moved a tad earlier and wider on the far turn, but they were virtually heads-up at the finish. There’s enough pace to set up their respective late bids and Pulsate is the only runner in the field who figures to offer any value. #2 AMERICAN SAILOR is the horse to use if you’re tired of the veterans in this field that look like they’ve seen better days. This son of City Zip worked hard to clear the field in the Wolf Hill from an outside post and grudgingly gave way late. He is quick enough to get an easy lead here and might forget to quit if he does so.

Race 9- 1ST #4 MY SISTER NAT 2ND #7 FOOLS GOLD 3RD #1 MRS. SIPPY

#4 MY SISTER NAT ran a far better race last time than it looks on paper given her poor break and prolonged wide move on a surface where the rail was the place to be. Unlike the morning line favorite, #1 MRS. SIPPY, this French-bred will benefit from the added ground and should be rolling late. #7 FOOLS GOLD would help her uncoupled stablemate if she forces the pace along early, and there is precious little zip in this field. She has run well here at the Spa in the past when forwardly placed going long and is an intriguing price play. The aforementioned Mrs. Sippy brings in the best credentials, but this distance is likely more than she wants, she has been off for an extended period and her trainer is struggling of late. That’s enough to make you shop around.

Race 10- 1st #5 GAMINE 2ND #6 VENETIAN HARBOR 3RD #3 MRS. DANVERS

#5 GAMINE looks to be from another planet. She demolished an overmatched field in the Acorn and now faces a new rival in #6 VENETIAN HARBOR in a race where she might not be able to get a comfortable early lead. That seems like a minor concern at most as this daughter of Into Mischief has shown immense talent and figures to use this as another stepping stone to the Kentucky Oaks. The aforementioned Venetian Harbor is being cutback in distance after a failed bid at Grade I glory last time out at Keeneland. She capitulated readily when confronted that day and will appreciate shortening up. The outside post will help jockey Joel Rosario assess the situation and formulate a plan of attack for beating Gamine. #3 MRS. DANVERS seems like the only upsetter, even if she has just a remote chance. She was wide last time out when you didn’t want to be and likely wants shorter than a mile.

Race 11- 1ST #3 UNCLE CHUCK 2ND #6 TIZ THE LAW 3RD #2 COUNTRY GRAMMER

#3 UNCLE CHUCK has shown flashes of brilliance in two prior starts and now moves up in class for Bob Baffert. This barn is a staggering 12 for its last 19 in Grade I dirt route races at NYRA for 3YOs and up. The speed he possesses is a major weapon as he can get control of this race if allowed to, or rate just off the pacesetters. #6 TIZ THE LAW is the horse to beat on paper, but he has not taken an appreciable step forward as a 3YO. He ran a bang-up race in the Holy Bull and has simply matched that effort in subsequent tries. He’s ripe for the picking for a fresh face like ‘Chuck and there’s no value to be had on this son of Constitution. #2 COUNTRY GRAMMER is an improving sort who parlayed an inside post into perfect trip and a Peter Pan win last time out. He will benefit if the pace heats up and he will be a square price at the windows as well.

Race 12- 1st #3 BLITCHTON LADY 2ND #2 MONIFICENT 3RD #5 MISTY TASTE

Even if he goes winless for the balance of the meet, trainer Jorge Abreu has had one he won’t forget and #3 BLITCHTON LADY can keep that going. She rallied well on a surface where closing was almost impossible last time and it was her first start off a lengthy layoff. She figures to be wound tighter here and will get pace to run at thanks to #2 MONIFICENT. That daughter of Verrazano set a fast pace last time out before tiring late and improved on the dirt. She is the one to catch and additional improvement would make her very dangerous. #5 MISTY TASTE is training strongly for this engagement as she returns from a lengthy break. She clearly has speed and Irad Ortiz, Jr. is willing to take the call.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 172-36-29-30 $224.90