8/29 Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis

[Kasept]

https://stevebyk.com/2020/08/29/7-22...2-2-2-2-2-2-2/



SARATOGA – 8/26/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #7 ENOUGH LOVE 2ND #6 HAPPY SOPHIA 3RD #1 QUEENDOM

#7 ENOUGH LOVE is a tad easier to trust than #6 HAPPY SOPHIA given how cold the barn the latter hails from is right now. This daughter of He’s Had Enough rallied well to snag the place dough against tougher last time and should sit an ideal trip today. ‘Sophia is clearly a win candidate but this is an awfully big drop for a horse that was competitive against N1X foes not long ago.

Race 2- 1st #1 I LOVE JAXSON 2ND #7 KING CAUSE 3RD #2 EXPERT

#1 I LOVE JAXSON gets a big jockey change after racing on the slower inside paths last time out when facing what will end up being a far tougher field than this one. He coasted the last time he raced on a wet track and he has the speed to stay within range early today. #7 KING CAUSE has run well a couple of times on wet tracks and can be forwardly placed, which is essential going this 9 furlong trip.

Race 3- 1st #4 L’IMPERATOR 2ND #7 IRISH MIAS 3RD #5 DON JUAN KITTEN

#4 L’IMPERATOR faced decent company overseas and is reportedly training well for Chad Brown. He gets Lasix and should benefit if rain leaves this turf course on the softer side. #7 IRISH MIAS got the worst of it last time out at Monmouth when stuck behind a slow pace while wide as well. He will get a bit more pace to run at today and that should help.

Race 4- 1ST #2 BUSTIN TO PLEASE 2ND #1/1A ENTRY 3RD #3 CHEATHAM HILL

#2 BUSTIN TO PLEASE seems like she’s in the right spot class-wise on a drop for trainer Antonio Arriaga. The inside post is ideal, especially if the track profile matches what we saw yesterday. The Jeff Englehart-trained entry of #1 RADIANTRITHYM and #1A TIED UP offer complementary running styles and each are coming in with improving form.

Race 5- 1st #7 PRAIRIE FIRE 2ND #1 LETMETAKETHISCALL 3RD #3 LOVE AND LOVE

#7 PRAIRIE FIRE was buried down inside last time and now gets a rider switch back to the successful pilot from the winter. There’s enough pace to set up her late bid and she should be a square price. #1 LETMETAKETHISCALL set a robust pace last time out and nearly stayed the trip before being collared late. She has the speed to get control from a cozy inside post and is a deserving favorite.

Race 6- 1st #10 HAPPYMAC 2ND #1 NEWBOMB 3RD #4 HIGHLY MOTIVATED

#10 HAPPYMAC is a candidate for the 100k bonus for a Runhappy that wins at Saratoga. This colt is training well and is out of a stakes winning mare who previously dropped G2 winner Shancelot. #1 NEWBOMB is training well and is by 14% debut sire Speightstown. He is kin to 2YO stakes type My Happy Face and the dam was a stakes winner.

Race 7- 1ST #1 BASIN 2ND #2 YAUPON 3RD #3 LONG WEEKEND

#1 BASIN has been in dire need of a cutback for quite some time and gets it today. He has been largely ineffective going long, even if his record indicates that he “won” the Arkansas Derby earlier this year. Look for him late, especially if the pace heats up in here. #2 YAUPON is the one to beat based on the N1X performance he put forth earlier in this meet against elders. He has speed and can rate just off the pace if the situation presents itself.

Race 8- 1ST #6 COMPLEXITY 2ND #4 FUNNY GUY 3RD #7 WIN WIN WIN

It has been 23 months since #6 COMPLEXITY won the 2018 Champagne, and he is now the likely favorite in search of a second Grade I score. He has the speed to get control in here and exits a solid performance going a mile at Belmont. #4 FUNNY GUY was sharp in victory in last month’s John Morrissey and now takes on open company. Trainer John Terranova has been careful about moving him into the open company ranks, but this son of Big Brown is obviously in career best form right now and you have to strike while the iron is hot. #7 WIN WIN WIN will be at his best sprinting and gets a cutback in distance today for trainer Mike Trombetta. He’ll need the pace to heat up and it might given the number of forward-running types.

Race 9- 1ST #7 PEDRO CARA 2ND #8 SADLER’S JOY 3RD #6 CROSS BORDER

#7 PEDRO CARA returns off a lengthy layoff for trainer Graham Motion and ran a bang-up race in his lone prior North American outing. He acquitted himself well in Saudi Arabia against solid competition and faces a group of mainstays in here who are nothing special. #8 SADLER’S JOY is the one to beat on paper based on his Bowling Green effort, but he collects more excuses than wins and is going to be over bet in this spot. #6 CROSS BORDER has a pace edge on the top two picks and will benefit if ridden forwardly.

Race 10- 1ST #5 ZAINALARAB 2ND #2 ALWAYS CARINA 3RD #3 JOUSTER

#5 ZAINALARAB was purchased for a million bucks and is the first foal to race from a G3 winning mare. She appears to be training well and trainer Chad Brown will likely figure her out quickly given he trained her mother. #2 ALWAYS CARINA is a half to 2019 BC Juvenile Turf winner Structor and is also training forwardly for her debut.

Race 11- 1st #8 MISS JIMMY 2ND #3 ELOQUENT SPEAKER 3RD #6 FLASHPACKINBARBIE

#8 MISS JIMMY is a live longshot shipping in from Finger Lakes who ran into trouble last time out. She was second to a solid allowance type that day and classes up well in the big leagues at the Spa. #3 ELOQUENT SPEAKER was scratched out of a similar spot where she would have been a heavy favorite a couple of weeks ago. She is the one to beat on paper but there are question marks.