2/12-14 (CD): Derby Future Wager (Pool 3)

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool 3

1 Caddo River 12-1
2 Candy Man Rocket 20-1
3 Concert Tour 20-1
4 Dream Shake 20-1
5 Essential Quality 8-1
6 Fire At Will 50-1

7 Freedom Fighter 20-1
8 Greatest Honour 15-1
9 Highly Motivated 20-1
10 Hot Rod Charlie 20-1
11 Jackie's Warrior 30-1
12 Keepmeinmind 20-1

13 Life Is Good 8-1
14 Mandaloun 30-1
15 Medina Spirit 20-1
16 Midnight Bourbon 30-1
17 Nova Rags 30-1
18 Prevalence 20-1

19 Risk Taking 15-1
20 Roman Centurian 30-1
21 Senor Buscador 30-1
22 Swiftsure 30-1
23 The Great One 20-1
24 "All Other 3-Year-Olds" 9-5

[Kasept]

There are nine new wagering interests compared to pool 2, which was staged Jan. 22-24: Frank Fletcher Racing Operation's Candy Man Rocket and Michael Shanley's Nova Rags, the top two finishers in the $200,000 Sam F. Davis (G3); Exline-Border Racing, SAF Racing, and Richard Hausman's 4 3/4-length debut winner Dream Shake; Freedom Fighter; Godolphin's 8 1/2-length debut winner Prevalence; Klaravich Stables' $200,000 Withers Stakes (G3) winner Risk Taking; Don Alberto Stable and Qatar Racing Limited's Robert B. Lewis runner-up Roman Centurian; Siena Farms and Asmussenequine.com's undefeated Swiftsure; and ERJ Racing, Train Wreck AI Racing Stables, Niall Brennan, Tom Fitz, and William Strauss' 14-length maiden winner The Great One..

[Dunbar]

Gone from the previous Future Wager Pool are:

Bezos
Capo Kane
Mutasaabeq
Olympiad
Prate
Prime Factor
Proxy
Spielberg
Wipe the Slate

Prime Factor at 21-1 and Bezos at 26-1 were the lowest odds of the group in the previous Future Wager Pool three weeks ago.

[moses]

Kinda curious to see if Prevalence or Dream Shake will be above that 20/1 figure or if they'll get a good chunk of money since they won impressively and are newcomers to the pool.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Gone from the previous Future Wager Pool are:

Bezos
Capo Kane
Mutasaabeq
Olympiad
Prate
Prime Factor
Proxy
Spielberg
Wipe the Slate

Prime Factor at 21-1 and Bezos at 26-1 were the lowest odds of the group in the previous Future Wager Pool three weeks ago.

confused why Proxy was dropped. His last race he came in 2nd,, and the horse that finished 1st and 3rd are in ???

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Kinda curious to see if Prevalence or Dream Shake will be above that 20/1 figure or if they'll get a good chunk of money since they won impressively and are newcomers to the pool.

Going into the final day, with almost 150K in the pool, Dream Shake is 32-1 while Prevalence is 12-1.

I noticed that at some point in the evening, All Others dropped from 6-1 to 7-2, before settling at 4-1. It looked like someone had popped $10K onto All Others. (I'd looked when there was $11K on All Others, and a relatively short time later there was $23K.)

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Going into the final day, with almost 150K in the pool, Dream Shake is 32-1 while Prevalence is 12-1.

I noticed that at some point in the evening, All Others dropped from 6-1 to 7-2, before settling at 4-1. It looked like someone had popped $10K onto All Others. (I'd looked when there was $11K on All Others, and a relatively short time later there was $23K.)

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3

Interesting as I like Dream Shake more than Prevalence.

Concert Tour remains around 16/1 so it looks like I’ll be putting some money on him again. I’m not sure I like the All Others bet for Pool 3. How many horses not listed have a strong chance to win the Derby? If that horse emerges, I’d rather just wait to bet it in Pool 4 or on Derby day than to take the field at 4/1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

... I’m not sure I like the All Others bet for Pool 3. How many horses not listed have a strong chance to win the Derby? If that horse emerges, I’d rather just wait to bet it in Pool 4 or on Derby day than to take the field at 4/1.

I don't bet on All Others with some specific horses in mind. It's a bet that new contenders will emerge from the remaining preps, and also that there is usually some attrition from the current leading contenders.

In the 3 weeks since Pool 2, 9 horses were replaced. Similarly, many of the horses from Pool 3 will not get into the starting gate on May 1. If the 6-12 horses from Pool 3's All Others that do get into the starting gate have a combined chance of at least 25% to win the Derby, then the All Others bet was a good one at 3.3-1.

2020 was weird timing-wise, so let's look at 2019. Pool 2 in 2019 was held Feb 8-10. Compared to this year's Pool 3, that's an extra week before the Derby was run. Only 7 horses from the 2019 Pool 2 made it to the starting gate. There were 12 horses from All Others, including the first 2 to cross the finish line.

[Dunbar]

Here are the final odds, to the right of the ML:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool 3

1 Caddo River 12-1, 15-1
2 Candy Man Rocket 20-1, 35-1
3 Concert Tour 20-1, 17-1
4 Dream Shake 20-1, 28-1
5 Essential Quality 8-1, 8.4-1
6 Fire At Will 50-1, 30-1

7 Freedom Fighter 20-1, 52-1
8 Greatest Honour 15-1, 9.9-1
9 Highly Motivated 20-1, 37-1
10 Hot Rod Charlie 20-1, 35-1
11 Jackie's Warrior 30-1, 26-1
12 Keepmeinmind 20-1, 25-1

13 Life Is Good 8-1, 7.7-1
14 Mandaloun 30-1, 16-1
15 Medina Spirit 20-1, 25-1
16 Midnight Bourbon 30-1, 41-1
17 Nova Rags 30-1, 91-1
18 Prevalence 20-1, 14-1

19 Risk Taking 15-1, 25-1
20 Roman Centurian 30-1, 41-1
21 Senor Buscador 30-1, 39-1
22 Swiftsure 30-1, 74-1
23 The Great One 20-1, 38-1
24 "All Other 3-Year-Olds" 7-2, 3.3-1

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't bet on All Others with some specific horses in mind. It's a bet that new contenders will emerge from the remaining preps, and also that there is usually some attrition from the current leading contenders.

In the 3 weeks since Pool 2, 9 horses were replaced. Similarly, many of the horses from Pool 3 will not get into the starting gate on May 1. If the 6-12 horses from Pool 3's All Others that do get into the starting gate have a combined chance of at least 25% to win the Derby, then the All Others bet was a good one at 3.3-1.

2020 was weird timing-wise, so let's look at 2019. Pool 2 in 2019 was held Feb 8-10. Compared to this year's Pool 3, that's an extra week before the Derby was run. Only 7 horses from the 2019 Pool 2 made it to the starting gate. There were 12 horses from All Others, including the first 2 to cross the finish line.

Good points. I’m typically not putting enough money down for 7/2 odds to be appealing in February (not that 17/1 on Concert Tour is great odds either). Makes sense though.