3/26-28 (CD): Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 5

[Kasept]

#7 Essential Quality (Brad Cox, 4-1, $10.20);
#24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (5-1, $12.80);
#4 Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, 5-1, $13);
#8 Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, 9-1, $20.80);
#12 Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, 12-1, $26.20);
#15 Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, 13-1, $28.80);

#18 Prevalence (Brendan Walsh, 21-1, $45.40);
#11 Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, 25-1, $53.80);
#16 Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, 27-1, $56.80);
#9 Helium (Mark Casse, 28-1, $59.80);
#20 Risk Taking (Chad Brown, 30-1, $62.80);
#21 Rock Your World (John Sadler, 31-1, $65);

#2 Caddo River (Brad Cox, 33-1, $69.40);
#23 Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, 35-1, $72.80);
#3 Collaborate (Saffie Joseph Jr., 36-1, $74.40);
#14 Mandaloun (Brad Cox, 36-1, $75.40);
#5 Crowded Trade (Chad Brown, 38-1, $78.40);
#13 Hozier (Bob Baffert, 44-1, $91.40);

#6 Dream Shake (Peter Eurton, 45-1, $92);
#22 Spielberg (Bob Baffert, 46-1, $95);
#17 O Besos (Greg Foley, 50-1, $102.20);
#19 Proxy (Mike Stidham, 51-1, $105.60);
#10 Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver, 53-1, $109.60);
#1 Big Lake (Steve Asmussen, SCRATCHED).

[moses]

Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things it’s not much but I’m wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things it’s not much but I’m wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.

How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Dunbar, we can agree to disagree. Next time just say you don’t like me and save yourself the time from having to write an essay. The line of internet douchebags who don’t like me forms to the left and is very long. Take a number.

You have an edge betting Derby futures but can’t and won’t prove it. I’m very impressed. I have to say, saying if you showed me proof that you’ve made money in the past it would ruin your edge for the future is right on brand and very intellectually dishonest. Have fun with that one.

Consider this my last word on the topic. Something tells me you’ll need the last word. Have at it

I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a couple of things clear to me. First, you don't have the foggiest notion of what expected value is or what "having an edge" really means. More surprisingly, you don't seem to understand the fact that in parimutual pools, if you convince everyone to bet like you do, your payoffs suffer.

You can relax. I won't make the mistake of engaging with you again.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things it’s not much but I’m wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.

If it's not because of some accounting delay, bet with both fists in the Lexington Stakes...

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a couple of things clear to me. First, you don't have the foggiest notion of what expected value is or what "having an edge" really means. More surprisingly, you don't seem to understand the fact that in parimutual pools, if you convince everyone to bet like you do, your payoffs suffer.

You can relax. I won't make the mistake of engaging with you again.

You’re probably right. I’m sure if you just proved that you’ve been able to make money in future pools consistently that hundreds, if not thousands would rush to this board to see the brilliance of betting “all other 3 year olds” at 2-1 four months before the race. You’re not that important.

Again, we agree to disagree. It’s not a big deal. For some reason, you seem personally offended because I think these bets are bad bets. I’m not sure why you are so offended, but it’s pretty funny.

Another thing I find hilarious is you seem incapable of just dropping it. Almost like I’ve really gotten under your skin and as hard as you are trying to stay calm, you’re clearly mad.

Mission accomplished! GFY Dunbar and shove your blackjack CD up your tight ass, k?

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.

Agreed about that. I wait until late in the day on Sunday to make my wager no matter what.