6/11 (BEL): 154th Belmont Stakes Day

[Kasept]

[steve]

nothing says Belmont more that 5 horse fields in Grade 1 races

[moses]

Does anyone know the record of horses in the Belmont with only 4 career starts and no starts as a 2 year old? Two of the top four ML choices fit that bill and I’ve got to think those horses don’t have a good track record in the race.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Does anyone know the record of horses in the Belmont with only 4 career starts and no starts as a 2 year old? Two of the top four ML choices fit that bill and I’ve got to think those horses don’t have a good track record in the race.

Closest I can think of was Justify. No starts as 2 year old but 5 at 3. No one else comes to mind.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Closest I can think of was Justify. No starts as 2 year old but 5 at 3. No one else comes to mind.

I did a quick look and found Summer Bird had no starts at 2 and only 4 career starts. Tonalist had only 4 career starts but did have a start at two.

This, of course, says nothing of the number of horses with similar resumes who did not win.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

I did a quick look and found Summer Bird had no starts at 2 and only 4 career starts. Tonalist had only 4 career starts but did have a start at two.

This, of course, says nothing of the number of horses with similar resumes who did not win.

Many moons ago this may have been a bigger issue but I wouldn’t worry about it today. Horses dont run like the used to. There are no juggernauts in this field. I’ll take my chances with Creative Minister which fits your original post.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Many moons ago this may have been a bigger issue but I wouldn’t worry about it today. Horses dont run like the used to. There are no juggernauts in this field. I’ll take my chances with Creative Minister which fits your original post.

That’s the horse I’m leaning toward. I don’t like We The People at all. Creative Minister concerns me a little with the inexperience and with so many races crammed into a small time frame…but I also think his third in the Preakness is probably the best performance of any horse in the race and he can back it up with some other pretty good races around two turns.

But just trying to see if there is something I’m missing.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

That’s the horse I’m leaning toward. I don’t like We The People at all. Creative Minister concerns me a little with the inexperience and with so many races crammed into a small time frame…but I also think his third in the Preakness is probably the best performance of any horse in the race and he can back it up with some other pretty good races around two turns.

But just trying to see if there is something I’m missing.

I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if he’s ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. I’ll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if he’s ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. I’ll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.

I actually think he may have more early speed than the 1. I’m totally unconvinced that We The People gets an easy lead.

[Conrad]

I think Gear Jockey is an intriguing runner in the Jaipur.
Up close and wide last time at CD, he steadied out of it and then made a pretty good move while hopelessly wide on the turn. Must have been in the 7 path turning for home. Battled on but tired to finish a close 4th. Gets Lezcano back today, and figures to be up close again in a rather paceless affair. Drew wide but I don't think it will hurt him as he should be able to get out and over in front of most of these.
In his previous race he was wide again and had no chance vs the best in the land, Golden Pal. Still, he ran pretty well to get 3rd.
Maybe he's may be a bit over the top after a big year in 2021? 0-3 so far in 2022.

I'm buying at his ML of 6-1

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Conrad

I think Gear Jockey is an intriguing runner in the Jaipur.
Up close and wide last time at CD, he steadied out of it and then made a pretty good move while hopelessly wide on the turn. Must have been in the 7 path turning for home. Battled on but tired to finish a close 4th. Gets Lezcano back today, and figures to be up close again in a rather paceless affair. Drew wide but I don't think it will hurt him as he should be able to get out and over in front of most of these.
In his previous race he was wide again and had no chance vs the best in the land, Golden Pal. Still, he ran pretty well to get 3rd.
Maybe he's may be a bit over the top after a big year in 2021? 0-3 so far in 2022.

I'm buying at his ML of 6-1

It's a very interesting puzzle to try and solve. I have seen worse 30/1 shots than Greyes Creek. Maybe he really is a sprinter? Adds Blinkers and Lobo appears to do well with that move. Obviously not the most likely winner but I couldn't X him in multi's

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think this race sets up nicely for the horse if he’s ready. I expect him to get first run at the 1 and like his chances. I’ll be happy with 6-1. I may even single so I can get creative in races 8 and 10 for value.

Mike Welsch has reported that Creative Minister was “hot in the coat” after some light work two different times this week. Not sure what to make of it. I’m still going to roll with him.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Mike Welsch has reported that Creative Minister was “hot in the coat” after some light work two different times this week. Not sure what to make of it. I’m still going to roll with him.

Slightly notable that McPeek's Tiz the Bomb kept getting warm all through lead up to Derby..

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Slightly notable that McPeek's Tiz the Bomb kept getting warm all through lead up to Derby..

I’m going to keep an eye on that and see how he looks the next two days.

[Conrad]

Can Happy Saver pick up the pieces (if there are any) in the Met Mile ?

He won his first four races and has now lost five straight.
However, he ran well in the Clark vs Maxfield (who never lost at CD) and he needed his last when 3wide and 4wide around the turns, still he hit the lead vs an in-form and very good Olympiad but got tired.
Now he returns to his favorite track and will likely get a very fast pace to run at.

He can fill out the exacta and maybe win if things get crazy up front.
I expect him to run very well.

[King Glorious]

Jack Christopher was super impressive. Serling may be right that this is the best 3yo in the country.

[cakes44]

Yes, Jerry Bailey seriously just said on air that his ride in the 2004 Belmont was his best chance to win.

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by Conrad

I think Gear Jockey is an intriguing runner in the Jaipur.
Up close and wide last time at CD, he steadied out of it and then made a pretty good move while hopelessly wide on the turn. Must have been in the 7 path turning for home. Battled on but tired to finish a close 4th. Gets Lezcano back today, and figures to be up close again in a rather paceless affair. Drew wide but I don't think it will hurt him as he should be able to get out and over in front of most of these.
In his previous race he was wide again and had no chance vs the best in the land, Golden Pal. Still, he ran pretty well to get 3rd.
Maybe he's may be a bit over the top after a big year in 2021? 0-3 so far in 2022.

I'm buying at his ML of 6-1

Splat - got the trip I wanted and came up empty.
Had a great year in 2021, but he's seen his better days.

[King Glorious]

Wow. Just wow. This is a damn superhorse.