9/4: Saratoga (Day 40; 4th-11th)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA ~ CLOSING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 4+, 7f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Very difficult read..

Most Likely: #7 Senor Jobim 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Float On 5-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Sagamore Mischief 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Swiftsure 8-1 WON ($6.60)


5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Scherzando 12-1 2nd ~ DePaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #4 Voleuse 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Russi 9-2 WON ($10.40)/5th
Super Add: #3 Okaloosa 4-1 4th


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (Must Pay P6, P3, DD)

Note that the body of the field are all first time starters. The AE's all have made debuts (#'s 11-16) and any that draw in appear to instantly command respect ahead of the #'s 1-10..

Most Likely: #9 Wisecracker 9-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Sorority Prank 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Winwood 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Solo's Fury 5-2 2nd


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (Must Pay P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Snowy Evening 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Overacting 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Smokie Eyes 5-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Waterville 7-2 WON ($8.90)


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Agility Late SCR
Next Best: #8 Win for Gold 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Always Charming 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Callaloo 6-1 5th


P5 Grid:

4: 1-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
5: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-6-7 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-A-C): 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (9-10 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

5: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-6-7 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


9th: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 American Know How 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Borletti 6-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Alexis Zorba 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Be There 12-1 4th


10th: Hopeful (G1), 2yo, 7f (DD)

This should be really good..

Best Value: #6 Gold Sweep 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Timberlake 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Valentine Candy 12-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Yo Yo Candy 20-1 10th


11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-Inner

Next Best: #11 Lt. Mitchell 5-2 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #8 Chulligan 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Fake Celebrity 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Unaffected 20-1 10th


P5 Grid:

7: 4-6-7 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
10: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 8-11 (A), 5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (9-10 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4-8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[jms62]

Castallano should have stayed outside on that Sciacca horse nd not tried to come in. Cost him the length he needed to win.

[ADJMK]

Another nice run by Scherzando today. Never seals the deal but runs his race every time. As all owners know we can't all own G1 winners but as long as he pays the bills we are happy.
The dream of competing with the big boys with shoestring purchases was kept alive by Contessa today. That what keeps us little guys involved.

Thank you Steve for all your work this summer. Most people don't realize how much work is involved posting picks every day.
I know, I am looking forward to doing something else but handicapping and watching replays for a while. Left too much money on the table this summer but that's what happens when you focus on multis and look for that big hit.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Another nice run by Scherzando today. Never seals the deal but runs his race every time. As all owners know we can't all own G1 winners but as long as he pays the bills we are happy. The dream of competing with the big boys with shoestring purchases was kept alive by Contessa today. That what keeps us little guys involved.

Thank you Steve for all your work this summer. Most people don't realize how much work is involved posting picks every day. I know, I am looking forward to doing something else but handicapping and watching replays for a while. Left too much money on the table this summer but that's what happens when you focus on multis and look for that big hit.

Thanks for the kind note. To me it was a really good summer, but I have the benefit of working through many wet seasons over the years. Scherzando ran well again. It's nice to have him 100% healthy. Net out his grass debut on a bog and the start when he hit the gate in April and he's 4/0-3-1 in his last 4. Has earned $125,000 without winning..