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Old 09-20-2023, 12:38 PM
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Steve Byk
 
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Default 9/20: Churchill Downs (5th-9th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Stormquist 6-5 WON ($3.12)
Best Value: #9 Wecallemfuncoupons 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Waldrip 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 East From West 8-1 6th


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Wiki Lio 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Beaux Artes 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Ball Gown 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Mischievous Gal 3-1 WON ($7.12)


7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Coppola 9-5 WON ($3.38)
Best Value: #5 Bodenheimer 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shimmer Me Timbers 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Kavod 4-1 3rd


8th: OC/N2X, 3yo, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Major Blue 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Giant Mischief 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Blue Light 4-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Retained 8-1 9th


9th: MSW-R, 2yo-F, 1m (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Despo's Dream 10-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Shimmering Allure 5-2 WON ($6.12)
Exotics Use: #8 Rock Star Doctor 12-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Sterling Luck 20-1 12th


P5 Grid:

5: 9-10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
6: 1-5-7 (A), 2-6-9 (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
8: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (C-A-A-A-A): 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (5-6 in 5th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (2,7,10/2,8/1/2,5,6,12/12) Paid $61.60


P4 Grid:

6: 1-5-7 (A), 2-6-9 (B), - (C)
7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-C-A-A): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-6 in 7th)

$1 Pick 4 (2,8/1/2,5,6,12/12) $63.32 ($31.66 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Last edited by Kasept : 09-20-2023 at 05:43 PM.
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  #2  
Old 09-20-2023, 12:39 PM
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Steve Byk
 
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CD SCR/CHG'S
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 09-21-2023, 04:44 AM
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Steve Byk
 
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Quick sidebar to this sequence yesterday regarding the idea of beating every favorite.. You had 5 straight faves win here for a breakeven proposition, but note the 5th and 7th results where 15-2 and 9-2 runners up could easily have prevailed.. Suddenly you'd go from a $60 return to maybe $250-300 with 3 favorites winning the other legs..



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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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