1/20: Fair Grounds (3rd-13th)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: OC/N2L, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Ba Dee Yah 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Floating Beauty 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Tarifa 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Spin the Breeze 6-1 5th


4th: Duncan Kenner, 4+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sosua Summer 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #7 Minnesota Ready 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Just Might 7-2 2nd


5th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Funnyflame 9-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Hall of Fame 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #3 San Siro 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Night Out 4-1 4th


P4 Grid:

2: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 4-6 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
4: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ghalia Princess 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Next Best: #10 Beelieve Her 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Absolute Miracle 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Yes Indeed 3-1 7th


7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Alex Joon 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Chasing the Crown 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Freedom's Way 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Point Proven 8-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

MDN's on big stakes days typically rife with potential stars. Guarani flopped in debut but is a full brother of Switzerland. Cox entrymates Cornishman (Godolphin Curlin h/b o/o SW Penwith) and Exp[loration ($900k Stonestreet bred Curlin) both look viable. Partyvicious is a full to Partylicious who was a smashing 20-1 debut winner (CD) in 2020 for the same connex. Stidham brings back tony Jackson home bred Sabi (Into Mischief/MSW Jehozacat). You get the drift..

Most Likely: #10 Cornishman 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Last Attack 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Sabi 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Exploration 5-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

4: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
6: 3-6-10 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 10 (A), - (B), 4-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x2x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-11 in 8th)


9th: Marie Krantz, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (All STK P5, P3, DD)

Modest pace signed on and Blushing KD winner Lovely Princess looks formidable in that scenario under outstanding positional pilot Hernandez..

Most Likely: #1 LOVELY PRINCESS 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Fancy Martini 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Tufani 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Unbridled Mary 10-1 8th


P5 Grid:

5: 4-6 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
6: 2-3-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 10 (A), 4-11 (B), - (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x2x3x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x5x2x1x1 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (AAAAC): 2x5x2x1x2 = 40 x .50 = $20 (6-9 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

6: 2-3-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 10-11 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
9: 1 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 5x2x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10


10th: Silverbulletday, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Consensus seems to be that it's West Omaha's race to lose, but she only has a slight edge on figs and it appears that the field she beat for CD diploma was just average with subsequent winners Pun Intended and Pula Beyering 75 and 67 breaking their MDN's. The rest of that 11/3 set remain winless posting numbers in the 50's. Miss Code West (9-2) is undefeated and pretty much untested and has proven tactical in her 4 wins. Perfect Shot has improved with every try and is 3rd choice on the ML. Dallas Stewart offers LA bred Accomodate Eva who is a prime reverse tri/super key candidate. Sistina Chapel is solid enough but underlaid at 7-2. Noriskit Nobiscuit is sneaky for a share at a big price. Really fun race..

Best Value: #3 Miss Code West 9-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Perfect Shot 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 West Omaha 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #2 Accomodate Eva 12-1 6th


11th: Col. Bradley, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Co-favorite Beatbox needs to improve to win and addition of Saez to Rising Empire (5-1) is appealing with prospects of an outside drafting trip off Strong Quality..

Best Value: #8 Rising Empire 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Strong Quality 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Who Took the Money SCR
Super Add: #9 Beatbox 5-2 2nd


12th: Louisiana (G3), 4+, 8.5f (DD)

SCR #7 Kupuna..

Early season Handicap Division test drew a quality set with Saudi Crown (G1 PA Derby), Smile Happy (G2 Alysheba), Confidence Game (G2 Rebel), Red Route One (G3 WVa Derby), Happy American (Defending winner) and Five Star General (Longacres Mile). General and Saudi assure a good pace. Smile Happy ran well here last year in the Risen Star via the same kind of layoff. Happy American circling up to an A effort..

Most Likely: #2 Smile Happy 9-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Happy American 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Saudi Crown 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Five Star General 6-1 4th


13th: Lecomte (G3), 3yo, 8.5f

As few as 5 may go with the 1 & 8 already declared and the 3 possibly out as well. The quintet that is left were the principal players anyway and Track Phantom should enjoy a stalk and go trip. Ethan Energy every bit as eligible as stablemate Nash..

Most Likely: #7 Track Phantom 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #5 Ethan Energy 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nash 5-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

9: 1 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
13: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x3x4x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 1x3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup (CAAAA): 1x3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (6 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

10: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
11: 2-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
13: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup (CAAA): 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7-8 in 10th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (4-6/2,3,6,7/3,7/7) $12.25


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

FG SCR/CHG'S