8/8: Saratoga ~ Day 21 (Morrissey-NY)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Endless Vow 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Blakely's Wish 2-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Practically Summer 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Trail of Gold 5-1 WON ($9.10)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Prospero 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Legitimize 3-1 WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Passive Management 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #7 Ak Sar Ben Derby SCR


3rd: John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Who can't win this?

Most Likely: #6 Looms Boldly 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #5 Rotknee 8-5 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Factually Correct 8-1 2nd


4th: MSW-$, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Eighty West 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #4 Friday Surprise 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Play the Gray 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Strengthandguidance 9-2 6th


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 11f-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Aspen Grove 1-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #5 Dreaming of Mo 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Be Your Best 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Avenue Niel 6-1 2nd


6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Those with experience (3-6-7-8) appear more likely than the firsters (1-2-4-5-9)..

Best Value: #8 And One More Time 6-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #3 Pop Idol 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Moonlight Promises 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Flirting With Time 10-1 6th


7th: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Difficult start to squirrely P4 with 4 of the 9 dropping in for a tag from MSW company.. Lightly raced types (I'm Thinking, Ascension, Bourbon Serengeti) & the 2 class-rising Linda claims (Street View, The Taco Lady) feel more probable as win candidates than those that have had their chances..

Most Likely: #2 I'm Thinking 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Street View 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Bourbon Serengeti 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Cararra 6-1 WON ($8.50)


P4 Grid:

4: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)
5: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x4x4 = $32
All A's: 2x1x4x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup (CAAA): 2x1x4x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (2-8 in 4th)

$1 Pick 4 (1,3/1,8/ALL/5) Paid $18.40 x 4 = $73.60


8th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Superb, old fashioned $40k claimer. With a moderate pace anticipated, feels like winner comes from front half of the field..

Most Likely: #1 Nelson Avenue 9-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Good Juju 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Lark's Mischief 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Radical Right 7-2 2nd


9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF (DD)

Total scrambler where 7 of the 8 (Queens Dancer the outsider) are separated by a length..

Best Value: #4 Latest Edition 8-1 5th ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #7 Marco T 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Patria 8-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Fancypants Juliana 6-1 WON ($16.80)


10th: OC-S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF

Yet another competitive set..

Best Value: #8 Ninja Abarrio 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Sweet Duchess 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Diamond Status Turf SCR
Super Add: #7 Sizzle Turf SCR


P5 Grid:

6: 8 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
8: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

3rd: John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Who can't win this?

Most Likely: #6 Looms Boldly 3-1
Next Best: #5 Rotknee 8-5
Exotics Use: #4 Factually Correct 8-1