8/17: Saratoga (4th-12th); Woodbine (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hue 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Valentine Gift 15-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Boss of All 9-2 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Empires Princess 6-1 9th


5th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 1m (Mandatory P5, P3, DD)

Note Macaw's effort here as he was felled by Pursuit of Power who looks to have a big chance in the 11th at 8-1..

Most Likely: #7 Macaw 5-2 DNF-Pulled up
Next Best: #4 Salacious 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Ramesses 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Remember the Chief 6-1 6th


6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Locke and Key 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Rough Draft 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Call Me Harry 3-1 WON ($9.80)
Super Add: #6 Betterluckythangood 9-2 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Mendelssohn's March 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Freedom Trail 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Reckoning Force 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #7 Dripping Gold 6-1 6th


P4 Grid:

4: 2-5-6-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x1x4x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


MONMOUTH 8th: Phillip Iselin (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Il Miracolo 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Subsanador 5-2 WON ($5,00)
Best Value: #1 Khozeiress 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Everso Mischievous 3-1 6th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

CANCELLED DUE TO INCIDENT & DELAY

MTH 8: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-4 (C)
SAR 8: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
MTH 9: 3-5 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
SAR 9: 7 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
SAR 10: 3-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16. (1-4 in MTH 8th)


SARATOGA 8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Timeout 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Rocketeer 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Game Warden 8-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Digital Ops 12-1 4th


MONMOUTH 9th: Select, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #3 Xy Speed 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Nothing Better 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Senbei 5-1 3rd


SARATOGA 9th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

She Feels Pretty the clear filly to beat, but note nice prices on several that still are developing including Spaliday (12-1) who has yet to reach a ceiling..

Most Likely: #7 She Feels Pretty 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Spaliday 12-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Dynamic Pricing 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Grayosh 8-1 WON ($17.60)


P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


P4 Grid:

6: 2-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


SARATOGA 10th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (P3, DD)

No Thorpedo Anna triggered interesting assembly of bred-for-10f fillies with 2 Gun Runners (Intricate, Chatalas), 2 Arrogates (Just Basking, Neon Icon) a Justify (Miss Justify), a Union Rags (Power Squeeze), a Constitution (America's Vow) & a Candy Ride (Candied) lining up. Very tricky read on well matched group; Not sure any outcome would be a total surprise..

Best Value: #6 Miss Justify 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Just Basking 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Candied 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #3 Power Squeeze 9-2 WON ($14.80)


11th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

Ooof. Maniacally difficult starter..

Most Likely: #4 Who's the King 6-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Pursuit of Power 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Unlimitedpotential 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Storming Chrome 8-1 5th


12th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #6 NAUGHTY DESTINY 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Beautiful Thief 8-5 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Heart of the Night 2-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Follow Your Arrow 20-1 6th


P5 Grid:

8: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 1-2-3 (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 4-10 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
12: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x3x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (5-8 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

9: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-7 (A), 1-2-3 (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 4-10 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
12: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x1 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x3x2x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (ACAA): 3x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (5-8 in 10th)



WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Soaring Free, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Swinger)

Best Value: #4 Coolcollected 8-1
Next Best: #2 Test Score 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Dream On 10-1
Super Add: #9 Homie 6-1


7th: Bold Venture (G3), 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Swinger)

Most Likely: #3 Patches O'Houlihan 7-5
Best Value: #7 First Empire 12-1
Next Best: #6 Playmea Tune 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Border Town 3-1


8th: King Edward (G2), 3+, 1m-T (Mandatory .20 P6, P3, Swinger)

Most Likely: #8 Filo Di Arianna 4-5
Best Value: #3 Wicked Django 15-1
Next Best: #6 War Bomber 5-1
Exotics Use: #10 Like the King 10-1


9th: OC/Cond., 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD, Swinger)

Most Likely: #7 Clear Destination 6-1
Best Value: #1 Classic Mo Town 8-1
Next Best: #4 Never Surprised 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Ron's Gizmo 4-1


10th: Catch a Glimpse, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Swinger)

Most Likely: #7 Bullet 2-1
Best Value: #8 Shezafunkydrummer 8-1
Next Best: #2 Will Reign 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Shifty 15-1


P5 Grid:

6: 2-4-5-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x1x4x3 = 216 x .20 = $43.20


11th: 165th King's Plate-R, 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Swinger)

BEAT BYK ~ Week 5: https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/

Best Value: #4 Caitlinhergrtness 12-1
Next Best: #3 Essex Serpent 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 Rafaroo 8-1
Super Add: #8 Pierre 20-1


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

WO SCR/CHG'S

MTH SCR/CHG'S

[myke]

Steve,


Thank you for the Woodbine....

[knickslions2]

Woodbine canceled rest of card. Sux