8/24: Saratoga (155th Travers Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA ~ TRAVERS DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (Early P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Empire Magic 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Geopolitics 4-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #5 Paulas Star Sister 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Calling an Audible 5-1 5th


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Crystal Quest 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Green Light 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Vesting 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Donegal Momentum 7-2 WON ($13.20)


3rd: OC-S/ALW, 3+, 11f-Inner (Mandatory Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Front Man 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 American Grant 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Debate 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lord Flintshire 3-1 WON ($8.80)


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Arro Smash 9-2 WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #4 Costa Terra 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Jace's Road 7-2 6th
Super Add: #6 Can't Hush This 5-2 3rd


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Mandatory Pay P5, P3, DD)

Hyper competitive..

Best Value: #6 Runningwithscissors 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Live Oak entry 7-5 WON ($4.30)/7th
Exotics Use: #4 Mid Day Image 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Mischievous Angel 9-2 4th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Thunder Roll 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Hands of Time 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Insubordination 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Zuniga 4-1 10th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Mandatory Pay P5, P3, DD)

The Romans and Antonucci 2nd timers are OK, but it sure feels like one of the heralded firsters (Pletcher-2, Gargan, Brown, Mott) are ready to go..

Best Value: #1 Freaky 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Rookie Card 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Tip Top Thomas 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #10 Sovereignty 8-1 4th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Rhetorical 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Willintoriskitall 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Slapintheface 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Final Denile 10-1 11th


9th: 50th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-Inner (Mandatory P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Measured Time 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Silver Knott 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Far Bridge 8-1 WON ($18.40)


10th: 46th Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (Late P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Society 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #3 Vahva 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Scylla 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Positano Sunset 15-1 4th


11th: 45th Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

In the crush of interest/excitement over Travers/Jerkens, this heat hasn't received the attention it deserves. Really nice group with good representation from all the running styles needed for an honest outcome..

Most Likely: #1 Gun Pilot 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Twisted Ride 15-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Cagliostro 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Baby Yoda 8-1 6th


12th: 40th H. Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 JEFFERSON STREET 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Domestic Product 9-2 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Vettriano 20-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Reynolds Channel 30-1 5th


13th: 155th Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

Never expected to land on the filly here, but considering the questions we've been asking since spring about the Classic Trail boys, isn't a credentialed fresh face exactly what you want today? Has to work out a trip, but Hernandez has multiple gears and runs to work with and imagine she can adjust to most scenarios that unfold. It also seem like she'll be an attractive price (4-1 currently) with Sierra Leone the favorite in the early betting (8/5)..

Best Value: #1 Thorpedo Anna 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Dornoch 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Unmatched Wisdom 8-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Sierra Leone 7-2 3rd


All G1, Mandatory Pay P5 Grid:

9: 2 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 3-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
12: 3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 1-3-7 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x4x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-4 in 9th)

Travers All G1 P4 Grid:

10: 3-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
12: 3-10 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
13: 1-3-7 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-7 in 12th)


14th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 1m

Best Value: #12 Prairie Dunes 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Treaty Obligation 7-2 WON ($4.90)
Exotics Use: #6 Six Kings 10-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Houlton 6-1 2nd


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S