10/23-25: C/O-palooza ~ KEE $301k P5; AQU $124k P6; SA $153k P6

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$301k P5 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to sequence with class droppers and in-and-outers..

Most Likely: #5 Strava 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #7 Huge Bigly 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Underdressed 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 C F V Bullet 8-1 10th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Quartet of candidates (2-4-6-10) have established form that win this and another five (3-7-8-9-12) are within hailing distance. #5 Pretty Pertinent WON ($54.98) is a 20-1 first time turf filly out of the nice multiple G1 placed Pretty Prolific, but there doesn't seem to be any indication that the lawn will work for her..

Most Likely: #10 Birdwatching 6-5 11th
Next Best: #6 One Front War 6-1 9th
Best Value: #2 High Shot 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 My Brazilian Girl 4-1 3rd


6th: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Everland 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Landed 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Intricate 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Neon Icon 5-1 WON ($11.96)


7th: ALW/Cond., 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Stakes quality turf sprint where Ward (Arrest Me Red) and former Ward (Outadore) figure prominently, but note that Arrest hasn't been too successful over this course..

Best Value: #6 Mischievous Rogue 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Outadore 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Arrest Me Red 7-2 WON ($7.56)
Super Add: #10 Mo Stash 4-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Hitchcock SCR
Next Best: #4 Touchy 8-5 WON ($3.26)
Exotics Use: #9 Can Do Andrew 15-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Original Sin 7-2 -


$200 Budget P5 Grid (w/ All Used in 4th):

4: 5-7-9-10 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-5-8 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8/SCR-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x4x3 = 288 x .50 = $144
All A's: 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
Backup (CAAAA): 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48 (1-4-5-8 in 4th)


$100 & Under Budget P5 Grid:

4: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-3-10 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8/SCR-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (CAAAA): 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-3-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

5: 6-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$124k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #2 Silent Melody 5-1
Next Best: #3 Sweet Anniversary 7-5
Exotics Use: #7 Nolita 4-1
Super Add: #1a (POE) Chasing Daylight 3-1


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Miss Bourbon 7-2
Next Best: #8 Magic Eight Ball 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Just Heart 9-2
Super Add: #3 Turriga 6-1


5th: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Its Satisfactual 10-1
Next Best: #5 Stamp of Approval 9-5
Exotics Use: #2 Sunday Tiff 10-1
Super Add: #3 Positive Carry 5-2


P4 Grid:

2: 3-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


6th: MDN/OC-$, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Western Wolf 7-2
Best Value: #8 Skyloft 6-1
Next Best: #7 Chris's Revenge 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 America's Honor 3-1


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Classify 3-1
Next Best: #3 El Grande O 8-5
Exotics Use: #1 Forrest City 7-2
Super Add: #8 For Some Reason 6-1


8th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f-Outer

Always hard to be totally objective when you have a horse in a race, but our home bred Landauer ran a career best stretching out on the grass last month and found trouble mid-stretch when rallying. Gets Lezcano and added ground and starts out as the 5th choice (6-1)..

Most Likely: #5 Landauer 6-1
Best Value: #2 Rohan 15-1
Next Best: #7 Make Your Moment 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Cattani 3-1


P6 Grid:

3: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x2x1x2x2 = $72


P5 Grid:

4: 5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

5: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = $32 ($16 for .50)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$153k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


5th: CA-MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


6th: MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


8th: CA-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


9th: MCLM/$50k, F&M/3yo-5yo, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


P6 Grid:

4: - (A), - (B), - (C)
5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


P6 P5 Grid:

5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


P4 Grid:

6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

Still was going to miss the P5 (with Neon Icon rated too low), but wanted to involve Pretty Pertinent (who was as fast as the major players) and couldn't find any turf on her page to convince me.. Eh.