11/2: Del Mar ~ 41st Breeder's Cup | Saturday

[Kasept]

41ST BREEDERS' CUP ~ FRIDAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Red Flag 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #4 Navy Man 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Skinner 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Dothraki 6-1 6th


2nd: Sen. Ken Maddy, F&M-2+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Stay and Scam 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Just Nails 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Twirling Queen 6-1 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #6 Kissed by Fire 5-2 4th


3rd: CA-Golden St. Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Hot Girl Walk 5-2 6th
Best Value: #9 In the Air Tonight 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Tequilaandtherapy 10-1 WON ($24.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Rizzleberry Rose 6-1 5th


4th: TB Aftercare Alliance, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

As good as the Juvy Turf races that come later..

Most Likely: #10 Chasing Liberty 15-1 WON ($15.60)
Best Value: #15 Uncle Dude 20-1 13th
Next Best: #6 Supa Speed 6-1 12th
Exotics Use: #4 Mi Bago 20-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Scipio 8-1 4th


5th: CA-Golden St. Juvenile, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 R Heisman 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Shea Brennan 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 I'm a Bad Boy 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Speedy Wilson 6-1 WON ($10.80)


P5 Grid:

1: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-3 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
3: 1-3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-10-15 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 4 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 1x2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7-8 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-3 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
3: 1-3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-10-15 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 4 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7-8 in 5th)


6th: Breeders' Cup Juvy Turf Sprint (G1), 2yo, 5f-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Ecoro Sieg 7-2 8th
Next Best: #2 Aesterius 9-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Shareholder 12-1 12th
Exotics Use: #3 Big Mojo 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Whistlejacket 5-1 5th


$3 TURF P3 Grid:

6: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x2x4 = 16 x $3 = $48


7th: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, J-Filly/Distaff DBL, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Immersive 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #2 Snowyte 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Quickick 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 American Bikini 5-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Scottish Lassie 5-2 4th


P4 Grid:

4: 6-10-15 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 4 (B), 7-8 (C)
6: 2-8-9 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x5x1 = $45
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = $18
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-5 in 7th)


8th: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3)

Most Likely: #1 Lake Victoria 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 Thought Process 5-2 9th
Best Value: #9 Kilwin 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Vixen 15-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Virgin Colada 20-1 13th


9th: Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (Juvy/Classic DBL, DD, Hi-5)

Top 4 are overwhelmingly likely, but find a use for Ireland-campaigned, American-bred (Quality Road/Lemon Drop Kid mare) first time dirt player Hill Road. Work reports pointing to a big try..

Best Value: #6 Citizen Bull 10-1 WON ($33.80)
Next Best: #1 East Avenue 5-2 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Jonathon's Way 9-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Chancer McPatrick 3-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Hill Road 30-1 3rd


10th: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, 2yo, 1m-T (Juvy Turf/Turf DBL, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Mentee 15-1 12th
Best Value: #1 Satono Carnaval 20-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Zulu Kingdom 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Dream On 20-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Iron Man Cal 30-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-3-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 3-5-10 (B), - (C)
10: 1-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x1x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x4x1x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x4x1x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (7 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5-6 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
10: 1-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 4x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

DMR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

41ST BREEDERS' CUP ~ SATURDAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Invigorated 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Jeweled Shillelagh 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Lahaina Flavor 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Rimprotector 12-1 9th


2nd: Bayakoa (G3), F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Alpha Bella 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Show Card Paddock SCR
Next Best: #3 Hope Road 6-5 WON ($2.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Desert Dawn 10-1 3rd


3rd: Goldikova (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Fluffy Socks 10-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Aspen Grove 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Sacred Wish 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Mouffy 10-1 4th


4th: Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Society 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Soul of an Angel 12-1 WON ($41.60)
Next Best: #9 Ways and Means 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Vahva 4-1 8th


5th: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5f-T (All Turf P4, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Cogburn 7-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Star of Mystery 10-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Isivunguvungu 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Motorious 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Believing Late SCR


All TURF P4 Grid:

5: 6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


P5 Grid:

1: 7-10 (A), - (B), 3-11 (C)
2: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-3 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
4: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-11 in 1st)


P4 Grid:

2: 3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-3 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
4: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


6th: Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (All Dirt P4, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Thorpedo Anna 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #7 Honor D Lady 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Alice Verite 30-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Candied 15-1 3rd


All DIRT P4 Grid:

6: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
8: 2-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-4-9 (A), 1-6-7-8-11 (B), - (C)
12: 8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x8x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


7th: Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P6, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Shahryar 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Rousham Park 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Rebel's Romance 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Emily Upjohn 5-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Gold Phoenix 15-1 4th


8th: Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #13 Newgate 20-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Arthur's Ride 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #2 Highland Falls 20-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Pyrenees 30-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Forever Young 6-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

4: 6 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 6-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
6: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
7: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 1x2x1x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (4 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

5: 6-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
6: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
7: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAA): 2x1x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9


9th: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Moira 8-1 WON ($13.60)
Best Value: #2 Full Count Felicia 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 War Like Goddess 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Cinderella's Dream 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Didia 12-1 3rd


10th: Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Gun Pilot 20-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Nakatomi 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Remake 8-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Mullikin 7-2 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


11th: Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 More Than Looks 20-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #12 Carl Spackler 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Notable Speech 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Geoglyph 30-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Johannes 9-2 2nd


12th: Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Post Time 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Domestic Product 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Mufasa 12-1 11th
Super Add: #14 Skippylongstocking 4-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Full Serrano 15-1 WON ($28.80)


P5 Grid:

8: 2-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54


P4 Grid:

9: 2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x3x2 = $36


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[odbaxter]

Thanks for all your hard work Steve!

Nice work yesterday!

GL today.

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by odbaxter

Thanks for all your hard work Steve!

Nice work yesterday!

GL today.

ODB! Thanks a lot.. OK start to weekend. Hope everyone did well. Let's cash early and often today!

[jms62]

I have the 2 in the Turf sprint... No way they should take down the winner..

[casp0555]

More Than Looks

Congrats to the connections!!

[ninetoone]

Nice handicapping Steve!

[atolunch]

Thanks so much for your endless efforts and insights. All culminating in a spectacular Breeders Cup Weekend.

Appreciate your write ups and opinions on Citizen Bull, Soul of an Angel, Full Serrano and many others lead to a very profitable weekend!

Congats and thanks again as always!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Thanks so much for your endless efforts and insights. All culminating in a spectacular Breeders Cup Weekend.

Appreciate your write ups and opinions on Citizen Bull, Soul of an Angel, Full Serrano and many others lead to a very profitable weekend!

Congats and thanks again as always!!

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Nice handicapping Steve!

Thanks.. Really fun weekend and lead up. Will write a summary up of the best information, but hope and expect everyone got something from ATR.