11/14: Aqueduct ($57k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Enigmatic 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 La Vita Sofia 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Backstretch Rose 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Roman Goddess 6-1 8th


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$51k P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Very tricky start to a difficult sequence..

Most Likely: #7 Winnin'onweekends 5-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Smile Mon 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Kahala 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Skylander 4-1 WON ($5.50)


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Ideally, you can get away with the 2 from Chad, but Silvology (Shug) and African Waters (Toner) are very competitive..

Most Likely: #5 Steel Lute 9-5 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #4 Weighted Average 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Silvology 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 African Waters 9-2 6th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
7th
And again, the 2 Chad debut runners (1/5) might get you through this leg, but the Mott pair (8/10) are viable (and value), while Shug's Majestic March (10-1) and Barrera's Pionus (20-1) are capable of blowing up the Picks. And of course Weaver offers 4x runner up Good Long Cry (7-2)..

Most Likely: #5 Green Jobs 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Olatz 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Pionus 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Chelsey's Choice 5-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

2: 5-6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
3: 5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 4-5 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
5: 1-5 (A), - (B), 7-8-10-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x5 = 60 x .50 = $30 (7-8-10-11-12 in 5th)


6th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Montebello 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Giroovin 9-2 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #4 Mason Mania 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Legal Deal 3-1 3rd


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (DD)

Next Best: #4 Collaboration 9-2 6th
Best Value: #2 By Any Other Name 12-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Lisa's Vision 6-1 WON ($25.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Reflexivity 3-1 4th


8th: CLM, 3+, 7f

Favored Nolo Contesto & Winter's Ghost are obvious players, but they haven't won a race that's visible on the page. Potts pair (High Heat/Classic Mark) certainly make sense, but how about a Spin Doctors exacta of the 2 Princes?? Davis has seized a pair of wins on 8-1 Prince James and 30-1 (!) Prince of Joy goes turf/dirt while cutting back for low percentage Legall who happens to do well with both moves (25% & 18% respectively)..

Most Likely: #4 Prince James 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 High Heat 3-1 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #2 Prince of Joy 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Classic Mark 4-1 2nd


P6 Grid:

3: 5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 4-5 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
5: 1-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3-4 (A), 6-7-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x1x1x6 = $144
All A's: 3x2x2x1x1x3 = $36
Backup (AAACAA): 3x2x2x1x1x3 = $36 (7 in 6th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]