11/16: Churchill Downs ~ Claiming Crown (3rd-11th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CLAIMING CROWN


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, HI-5)

This will be a very productive race going forward..

Most Likely: #9 Camp Hale 3-1
Best Value: #8 Ain't No Disco 15-1
Next Best: #11 Guns Loaded 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 T Kraft 10-1
Super Add: #3 Brodeur 15-1


4th: Kent Stirling/Iron Horse ($8k S/ALW), 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, HI-5)

Best Value: #8 Wandering West 8-1
Next Best: #5 Freedom Road 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 On a Spree 3-1
Super Add: #9 Fightertown 8-1


5th: Tiara ($25k S/ALW), F&M-3+, (P4, P3, DD, HI-5)

Most Likely: #5 Dana's Beauty 4-5
Best Value: #6 Perhaps Tonight 20-1
Next Best: #2 Lady Outofthe Blue 12-1
Exotics Use: #8 Ghostly Gal 9-2


6th: Express ($8k S/ALW), 3+, (Derby City 6, P3, DD, HI-5)

Best Value: #8 Charter Oak 12-1
Next Best: #1 Caramel Chot 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 Concrete Glory 5-2
Super Add: #3 King of Kentucky 6-1


7th: Glass Slipper ($12.5k S/ALW), F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, HI-5)

Best Value: #4 Savannamarie 8-1
Next Best: #1 Ambitiously Placed 9-2
Exotics Use: #11 Pens Street 6-1
Super Add: #6 Jubilant Joanie 7-2


8th: CBY-Tom Mentzen Memorial ($25k S/ALW), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, HI-5)

Best Value: #7 Mid Day Image 6-1
Next Best: #5 Final Verdict 2-1
Exotics Use: #1 Balsa 8-1
Super Add: #4 Cotton 8-1


P4 Grid:

5: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


9th: Rapid Transit ($16k S/ALW), 3+,7f (P3, DD, HI-5)

Best Value: #2 No Easy Days 12-1
Next Best: #8 Global Sensation 2-1
Exotics Use: #10 Stage Left 6-1
Super Add: #4 Young Squire 30-1


10th: Jewel ($35k S/ALW), 3+, 9f (DD, HI-5)

Unless Gilded Cracken draws in, Laughing Boy will be on a very loose lead..

Best Value: #9 Laughing Boy 12-1
Next Best: #3 Money Supply 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 Guntown 12-1
Super Add: #11 Surface to Air 8-1


11th: Emerald ($25k S/ALW), 3+, 8.5f-T (HI-5)

Best Value: #4 Cadet Corps 20-1
Next Best: #8 Sugoi 2-1
Exotics Use: #3 Tidal Forces 15-1
Super Add: #7 Kentucky Ghost 20-1


P5 Grid:

7: 1-4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-9 (A), 6-11 (B), 2-5 (C)
11: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-5 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

8: 5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
10: 3-6-9 (A), 2-5-11 (B), - (C)
11: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Let's get lucky!
Steve