Tampa Bay Plays for Saturday

POINTGIVEN1985 · #1 03-16-2007, 06:59 PM

I have spent a few hours this afternoon handicapping this card, i have a few plays that i like alot, here they are....

Race #9 $1 pick 4 wheel All/2,7/6/2,4 ... possibly not much value if you dont catch a price in the first leg, thats why i will go all. In the 10th i thought it was really hard to go past the top 2 in here i looked at this race for a long time trying to find a way to beat one of the top 2 but i just dont see it happening. In the 11th i think My Typhoon is a standout, i will be betting her heavy to win, i have loved this horse for a long time i love the pedigree and the great tactical speed that she has, she is actually my play of the day if she losses im in trouble because im making a big win bet on her and keying her in the pick 4. In the 12th i was tempted to key Street Sense and play a $2 or $3 wheel but i dont want to get beat by Todd and Any Given Saturday, this is another race that i looked at for a long time trying to find a horse to beat one of the top to, but i just couldnt, i could not go over 2 in this race or the 10th. Good luck everyone, and once again unless you catch a big price in the first leg i dont think you can break the bank with this ticket but i definitly think its hitable.

hockey2315 · #2 03-16-2007, 08:15 PM

I'm not very enthused by the card so my only play as of right now will be a straight exacta Any Given Saturday over Optimistic Steve. . .

POINTGIVEN1985 · #3 03-16-2007, 08:21 PM

i dont like it much either i only like the 4 races in the pick 4 sequence, but there is not much else tommorw, i dont like anything at gulf or the big A, i like lukas's horse in the rebel but he will be short price.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #4 03-16-2007, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not very enthused by the card so my only play as of right now will be a straight exacta Any Given Saturday over Optimistic Steve. . .

do you think optimistic steve will run good ? i looked at the race for a long time and i thought maybe most distinguished could get into the exacta if one of the big 2 runs bad.

hockey2315 · #5 03-16-2007, 08:25 PM

I've liked Optimistic Steve since his debut (see my posts in the "two year olds to watch" thread in the trip notes section). . . His last race was pretty impressive and I think he's got the running style to get a piece. . .

POINTGIVEN1985 · #6 03-16-2007, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I've liked Optimistic Steve since his debut (see my posts in the "two year olds to watch" thread in the trip notes section). . . His last race was pretty impressive and I think he's got the running style to get a piece. . .

do you think he can win, should i put him in my pick 4, i mean if he wins you could possibly catch a huge pick 4, even if the other 3 races are chalk.

hockey2315 · #7 03-16-2007, 08:32 PM

He has a SLIGHT chance to win if there's enough pace in the race. . . I'm not sure he's quite at the level that AGS is and the level that Street Sense can be when he's 100%. . . If you haven't watched the replays of Optimistic Steve's races- take a look. . . He's got a nice kick

POINTGIVEN1985 · #8 03-16-2007, 08:36 PM

i just watched, i dont think this race will setup for him, but from what i saw he's definitly talented

hockey2315 · #9 03-16-2007, 08:37 PM

ya that's why I'm playing him underneath. . .

Unstable · #10 03-16-2007, 09:08 PM

I have also been looking at the races in this Pick 4. I'm hesitant, because I don't like to bet tracks I'm unfamiliar with. I like the picks suggested for the 10th and 11th. I'm trying to narrow down the choices in the 9th.

As for the 12th, the Tampa Bay Derby, I think this is Any Given Sunday's race to lose. Of the Zito horses, I prefer Most Distinguished to run 2nd. But I haven't seen Optimistic Steve run, so.... I don't think Carl Nafzger could care less about winning this. I think he's trying to get his horse ready for the big race the first Saturday in May.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #11 03-16-2007, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unstable

I have also been looking at the races in this Pick 4. I'm hesitant, because I don't like to bet tracks I'm unfamiliar with. I like the picks suggested for the 10th and 11th. I'm trying to narrow down the choices in the 9th.

As for the 12th, the Tampa Bay Derby, I think the is Any Given Sunday's race to lose. Of the Zito horses, I prefer Most Distinguished to run 2nd. But I haven't seen Optimistic Steve run, so.... I don't think Carl Nafzger could care less about winning this. I think he's trying to get his horse ready for the big race the first Saturday in May.

i agree about nafzger possibly not caring but heres how i look at it, this horse might just be that much more talented then any given saturday, i mean he has never been worst then 3rd in his career vs very good company and everyone he beat in the juvenile has came back to run very well, so even if he's not fully cranked im thinking he can still beat any given saturday, the more i think about it and look the more im thinking of keying street sense and doing a $3 or $4 ticket, instead of a $1.

Unstable · #12 03-16-2007, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i agree about nafzger possibly not caring but heres how i look at it, this horse might just be that much more talented then any given saturday, i mean he has never been worst then 3rd in his career vs very good company and everyone he beat in the juvenile has came back to run very well, so even if he's not fully cranked im thinking he can still beat any given saturday, the more i think about it and look the more im thinking of keying street sense and doing a $3 or $4 ticket, instead of a $1.

Good luck to you. I agree that Street Sense is the best horse. I just think that Calvin Borel is going to follow instructions and take it very easy on this horse. If Street Sense doesn't win, who does? The way I'm thinking, I'm going to key Any Given Saturday over the 2 Zito horses in the exacta. I was going to go for a cold exacta Any Given Saturday over Most Distinguished, but a few others on this site love Optimistic Steve, so I've got to include him or I won't be able to sleep tonight.

GPK · #13 03-16-2007, 10:11 PM

Remember boys, Tampa is not like most other tracks. Very sandy there and some horses simply do not take to the quirky surface. Been following the track long enough to know that horses that run great elsewhere, can run like total sh*t at Tampa....and visa versa.

My greatest success has come betting horses that are proven over the track.

J.M.V.H.M.F.O.

Rudeboyelvis · #14 03-16-2007, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Remember boys, Tampa is not like most other tracks. Very sandy there and some horses simply do not take to the quirky surface. Been following the track long enough to know that horses that run great elsewhere, can run like total sh*t at Tampa....and visa versa.

My greatest success has come betting horses that are proven over the track.

J.M.V.H.M.F.O.

Truer words have never been spoken...GPK is BACK!

AGS has already proven he can win over the surface, albeit over questionable company...I'd still take that over SS off the layoff and the Zito pair, but use them for sure.

saucon17 · #15 03-16-2007, 10:22 PM

Does any one think Desire To Excel has a chance
in the Fla. Oaks. Hasn't started since Saratoga, but
Breen does pretty well with fresh/layoff horses. Could
be the controlling speed with Calvin at the helm.

GPK · #16 03-16-2007, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Truer words have never been spoken...GPK is BACK!

AGS has already proven he can win over the surface, albeit over questionable company...I'd still take that over SS off the layoff and the Zito pair, but use them for sure.

damn right homey....

Already been to the OTB 2 times this week and left a winner both days.

To quote The Beastie Boys...

"IT'S THE NEW STYLE"

lemoncrush · #17 03-16-2007, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17

Does any one think Desire To Excel has a chance
in the Fla. Oaks. Hasn't started since Saratoga, but
Breen does pretty well with fresh/layoff horses. Could
be the controlling speed with Calvin at the helm.

Yes, I'm using her in my pick 4.
And I'm not a Tampa expert either, but am going to tread lightly and take a shot at the pick 4.
Selections below.

#18 03-16-2007, 10:45 PM

There is a more interesting p4 for the 5-8th races that i will be playing instead of the 9-12 races p4. I HATE turf sprints and with it starting the 9th race p4, i will most likely pass.

lemoncrush · #19 03-16-2007, 10:53 PM

Here's what I came up with for a pick 4.

9) 6-8-9-11
Could get burned here, but I think one of these 4 will win it.
Not buying Court Folly in here, as the 5 furlong turf sprint is definitely a specialized race, and I don't think any back class is going to help him win this one.

10) 2,5,7I don't think Cotton blossom will win here, but can't justify not including her, either. Autobahn girl is in great form and Desire to Excel could be an absolute force in the 3-yo filly ranks this year if she comes back as good as she looked before she got sidelined.

11) 1-5-6
I agree that My Typhoon is the class, but also note she's never ran at Tampa before. Plus, 1-1/8 isn't her favorite distance, and she won't be alone on the front end getting away with soft fractions either as the 8 and 9 will both be right on her tail. She could win this on sheer ability, but I need to include Rich in Spirit and as a longshot, I'll take Masseuse. Trainer is good off the long layoff, and if she's ready, she fits with these.

12) 4
No reason to take anyone else. There's already too many built-in excuses for Street Sense not to win here, and I don't see anyone else in the field being able to handle Any Given Saturday. The Sam Davis win makes him even more of a slam dunk. Anything near the 9/5 morning line will be a gift.

6,8,9,11/2,5,7/1,5,6/4
$36 for $1 (pending scratches)

POINTGIVEN1985 · #20 03-16-2007, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saucon17

Does any one think Desire To Excel has a chance
in the Fla. Oaks. Hasn't started since Saratoga, but
Breen does pretty well with fresh/layoff horses. Could
be the controlling speed with Calvin at the helm.

i looked at the race for a long time and i cannot use anyone but the top 2, i looked at her i like her, just not in this spot