Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[SniperSB23]

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

Where's your proof of that? Nakatani rode Colonel John last time and has ridden him in four of six starts. That doesn't sound like Gomez ditching him to me..

The horse is a winner with a versatile running style and awesome distance pedigree. As for his figures, if you take all synthetic numbers at face value, then I don't know what to tell you, and it isn't like 95 is far off what it'll take to win here. To me, the only one that has run a two-turn race significantly faster at three is Big Brown, because I'm not buying that AR Derby fig.

Do I think he offers value? Hell no. But if you watch the horse run, look at his pedigree and don't think it screams "Derby horse", then I think you're mistaken. I wouldn't bet him to win, but he's definitely one of the more likely winners.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Where's your proof of that? Nakatani rode Colonel John last time and has ridden him in four of six starts. That doesn't sound like Gomez ditching him to me..

I don't know if Gomez could get the mount back now if he wanted to but he undoubtedly chose to ride Court Vision in the Wood over Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby:

Another person who was thrilled when he heard about the work was Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson, who stands by last month’s decision to ride Court Vision instead of Colonel John.

“With Colonel John, you’re dealing with a horse coming off synthetic surfaces and who had won the Sham Stakes by a half-length,” Anderson said. "With Court Vision, you’re dealing with Billy Mott and going to Aqueduct where he had already won a stakes, and then going to Churchill Downs where he had already won a stakes. How could I take off him? And when you’re going a mile and a quarter for the first time, you can’t count speed figures.

[robfla]

couple reasons.

- process of elimination, except for Big Brown who really is fast enough?
- Throw out beyers on synthetic as they are not meaningful.
- He can plod along and run down the wilting frontrunners ( ala Giacomo )
- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year
- Tiznow, true, dominant sire on synthetic surfaces, but didnt he win a good race or two on dirt?
- and last but not least: he should have no problems with the distance

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by robfla

- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know if Gomez could get the mount back now if he wanted to but he undoubtedly chose to ride Court Vision in the Wood over Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby:

Another person who was thrilled when he heard about the work was Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson, who stands by last month’s decision to ride Court Vision instead of Colonel John.

“With Colonel John, you’re dealing with a horse coming off synthetic surfaces and who had won the Sham Stakes by a half-length,” Anderson said. "With Court Vision, you’re dealing with Billy Mott and going to Aqueduct where he had already won a stakes, and then going to Churchill Downs where he had already won a stakes. How could I take off him? And when you’re going a mile and a quarter for the first time, you can’t count speed figures.

Yeah, and Ron Anderson's never made a similar mistake before (Hard Spun, Rags to Riches)..

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, and Ron Anderson's never made a similar mistake before (Hard Spun, Rags to Riches)..

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

I understand playing against him on top at 9/2 or so, and he's certainly not my value pick, but I can't really see him running out of the money.

[Danzig]

i thought gomez only rode him when he did because nak was injured? i doubt it was a permanent change, or one that gomez could turn into a permanent jockey switch.
as for colonel john, he could make the switch-then again, he may not. it's possible he will get good odds that would make him worth a look as there could be doubts.
but, judging by the results at oaklawn, synthetic horses can make a successful transition to dirt. now, for those going from dirt to synthetic, that's another story. of course for every example you could show that horse was able to transition, no doubt you can find some that can't. but that's been a part of horse racing for years, with horses trying dirt to turf and vice versa.
i'd give col john a lot longer look than many of the other horses people have been mentioning.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

I said in my initial post that seeing how he works might change things. As of now though I don't understand how everyone can be acting like he's a must play horse. I think he needs to prove he belongs on dirt before he is worthy of consideration on any tickets.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

Yeah, that pretty much sums up my thoughts.

[slotdirt]

Is there a must play horse in this Derby? If so, I'm seriously missing something.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, Pyro.

[slotdirt]

My bad. After DrugSy's Pyro tout, is there a must play horse in this particular Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's Mr. DrugSy to you.

[slotdirt]

Sorry, Mr. DrugSy, won't make that mistake again.

[Thunder Gulch]

Tiznow may look like a Synthetic sire because all of those Cal-breds at Delmar, Hollywood, and Santa Anita. Tiznow himself won the Breeders Cup classic dirt race at Churchill downs covering 10f.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Slew's Tizzy, Bear Now, Well Armed, Tough Tiz's Sis, Colonel John, .... all very good synthetic horses - and that's just off the top of my head.