State by State

[SCUDSBROTHER]

270 electoral votes needed to win it.

These 4 states are close: CO(9) OH(20) VA(13) NV(5)



I'll call the other 46 (because I can easily handle such a task.)



Pro-Obama States (TOTAL: 264 electoral votes)

PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT...don't forget D.C.(3 ELEC. VOTES....BELIEVE IT OR NOT.)

Pro-McCain States (total:227 electoral votes...of course...the predominant thing in common is most of the states that had slavery ain't having OBAMA.)

AL AZ AR FL SD AK
GA NC ND ID IN KS MO
KY LA MS MT NE OK
SC TN UT WV WY TX



NH,AND NM could be soft,but I think Obama will take them. Florida could be soft, but I expect it's McCain's. If Florida or Ohio go for Obama, then JohnnyCat, you are dead. Funny how 2 states that are normally battleground states(Missouri,and Arkansas) aren't even close when a brotha is involved.

[Rileyoriley]

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

[hi_im_god]

that's probably a good snapshot if the vote was held today.

but it could change in 2 months. obama has a ground war where he just needs to grind it out and hope the economy and unpopular war carry him. but he can't make any mistakes.

i think the republican's nominated the only candidate they had that wouldn't get swamped. he's a moderate who has significant policy differences with the disastrously incompetent leadership in the white house.

it could still be a close republican win. but it could also be a close democratic win or a significant one. absent another terrorist attack there's no chance for a sweeping republican win.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

Keep dreaming on this one. I'm being objective. I have given Johnboy everything he has been close to taking. Like I said, NH, and possibly NM could slip away from Obama, but I think all the others I listed are gunna stay his. Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin etc...all gunna stay with him. Johnny n' Ranger Gal could take all 4 of the close ones I mentioned.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

where are you getting those numbers? i haven't seen any poll that has mccain that close. the idea mccain would be competitive in mass is off the rails.

mccain won't spend any more effort campaigning there than obama will in alaska. and for the same reason.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

that's probably a good snapshot if the vote was held today.

but it could change in 2 months. obama has a ground war where he just needs to grind it out and hope the economy and unpopular war carry him. but he can't make any mistakes.

i think the republican's nominated the only candidate they had that wouldn't get swamped. he's a moderate who has significant policy differences with the disastrously incompetent leadership in the white house.

it could still be a close republican win. but it could also be a close democratic win or a significant one. absent another terrorist attack there's no chance for a sweeping republican win.

No, it's not drastic( he agreed with Geedubbya 90% of the time.) Fact is there aren't that many states in play. The Electoral College is not that hard to figure out. States vote about the same way each time they vote for Pres. There are states in play, but not as many as people think. Seriously, maybe these 11 are even close. FL ND NC MI NH MN CO OH NV VA NM

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

No, it's not drastic( he agreed with Geedubbya 90% of the time.) Fact is there aren't that many states in play. The Electoral College is not that hard to figure out. States vote about the same way each time they vote for Pres. There are states in play, but not as many as people think. Seriously, maybe these 11 are even close. FL ND NC MI NH MN CO OH NV VA NM

Wisconsin will be tougher than it looks

[ArlJim78]

McCain will win comfortably. i said it as soon as he won New Hampshire, and nothing has changed. in fact, the situation vastly improved for him this week.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

No, it's not drastic( he agreed with Geedubbya 90% of the time.) Fact is there aren't that many states in play. The Electoral College is not that hard to figure out. States vote about the same way each time they vote for Pres. There are states in play, but not as many as people think.

you mean like, massachusetts?

i know the partisans have to paint everything in black and white and i understand the dems have to make this about another bush term.

but there's a reason mccain has been held at arms length by his own party for so long. he really has taken principled position's that have cost him politically.

he's likely the best candidate for president i will ever vote against.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

McCain will win comfortably. i said it as soon as he won New Hampshire, and nothing has changed. in fact, the situation vastly improved for him this week.

^
afterglow.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be so sure about MA.. Right now it's McCain-44%, Obama-45%, and undecided-11%.
I would have sworn Obama would be way ahead in my extremely liberal state.
Then again, I don't have much faith in polls.

Really, as a proud graduate of public high school in Salem Mass., the State University in Amherst and a life long Red Sox fan who grew up with but a few absolutes of life in Massachusetts........we have Democrats and Catholics in Boston and the surrounding Rte 128 area......JFK was both and although close to 50 years ago, I would be shocked if this Obama guy did not receive the electoral backing of the Commonwealth the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November 2008.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Wisconsin will be tougher than it looks

Keary carried it. He is up by about 4%, and I doubt that goes all the way away, and he is probably even more popular in Madison than is showing up in polling. I think he has a solid 264 with
PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT District of Columbia, but there certainly is no other state that he can rely on. My guess is he loses Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio, and barely gets home by winning Virginia. For some reason, Virginia is pretty consistently polling for him by a sliver. It's going to be a very close election. He needs one more state, and he is gunna have to work very hard to get it. I think he gave up on Florida, and went for a V.P. that would help solidify Michigan, and give him an outside shot of winning Ohio.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Keary carried it. He is up by about 4%, and I doubt that goes all the way away, and he is probably even more popular in Madison than is showing up in polling. I think he has a solid 264 with
PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT District of Columbia, but there certainly is no other state that he can rely on. My guess is he loses Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio, and barely gets home by winning Virginia. For some reason, Virginia is pretty consistently polling for him by a sliver. It's going to be a very close election. He needs one more state, and he is gunna have to work very hard to get it. I think he gave up on Florida, and went for a V.P. that would help solidify Michigan, and give him an outside shot of winning Ohio.

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by GPK

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html

Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight. Don't you have a Democrat running away with the senate race? This is the one state where the "Black vote" could make a difference, because it is (for sure) very close.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html

Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight.

http://news.aol.com/elections/story/...05233409990018

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by GPK

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

Still disagree with you there.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by GPK

not a chance in hell he carries VA.

kev-

you can keep posting that but poll after poll shows it's a toss up. i haven't seen anything the last 3 months that had either ahead by more than the margin of error.

watch how many trips mccain and palin make to va the next 2 months and then tell me there's no chance.

[dalakhani]

Biden was in Manassas on wednesday.

[jwkniska]

with Palin as McCain's running mate, no way does he carry OH. Obama will carry downtown Cleveland, Columbus and maybe Cincy (unions and black vote)... no way does he carry any rural county. He'll lose the veteran (which Ohio has a ton of) and male vote by a wide margin and with a pro-life woman on the ticket, will lose the women vote too.

If they chose Hillary, Obama could have won it (the rural women would vote for Hillary over Obama... as they did in the primary or over McCain), but will now almost all vote for McCain since there's a pro-life woman on the ticket. They would have looked past the pro-life part for Hillary, but with them not taking her, the democrats will lose the state... probably by a wider margin than most will expect too.

Grew up there and know the area and the way the people will vote.

I will say one thing for Obama though... he's better off in Ohio by himself, because the type of person that Biden is... is exactly what they cannot stand.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

with Palin as McCain's running mate, no way does he carry OH. Obama will carry downtown Cleveland, Columbus and maybe Cincy (unions and black vote)... no way does he carry any rural county. He'll lose the veteran (which Ohio has a ton of) and male vote by a wide margin and with a pro-life woman on the ticket, will lose the women vote too.

If they chose Hillary, Obama could have won it (the rural women would vote for Hillary over Obama... as they did in the primary or over McCain), but will now almost all vote for McCain since there's a pro-life woman on the ticket. They would have looked past the pro-life part for Hillary, but with them not taking her, the democrats will lose the state... probably by a wider margin than most will expect too.

Grew up there and know the area and the way the people will vote.

I will say one thing for Obama though... he's better off in Ohio by himself, because the type of person that Biden is... is exactly what they cannot stand.

so like i said to kev...

if there's no way mccain wins ohio, why are the dems campaigning so hard there?