Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious

[Merlinsky]

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

[Kasept]

Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.

And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

[King Glorious]

Funny how we look at things. Courageous? Alydar?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Funny how we look at things. Courageous? Alydar?

Yeah. Courageous. Go and watch the Wood. Atomic Rain turned in a terrific effort and had run when he was as blocked midstretch as the winner. Its Atomic Rain that bumped I want Revenge into the path that he used to the lead.

And seeing as how nuance and the comparative allegory need to be explained a second time, Alydar as Derby hopeful when compared to Mine That Bird.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah. Courageous. Go and watch the Wood. Atomic Rain turned in a terrific effort and had run when he was as blocked midstretch as the winner. Its Atomic Rain that bumped I want Revenge into the path that he used to the lead.

And seeing as how nuance and the comparative allegory need to be explained a second time, Alydar as Derby hopeful when compared to Mine That Bird.

...sometimes a third

Or a fourth.

Or a tenth.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

It's hardly an epidemic. The connections of Mafaaz, Charitable Man, Big Drama, and Terrain have all passed. That's more voluntary passing in one year than I think we've seen in the last three years combined.

[blackthroatedwind]

Atomic Rain was " courageous " while running a non-threatening fourth with, essentially, a perfect trip? That's funny.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.

And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

He was also 7th in the Sam F. Davis. Ok so I missed the Wood earnings. I did a search but didn't catch it. I watched the Wood again and I'm sorry I just don't see where you look at that and go 'we're going to the Derby!' Now watch him win this thing. He does seem nice enough, but what excuse am I missing that he couldn't manage a top 3 in a graded stake all spring? He was holding position at the end of the Wood but not threatening 3rd place from what I could see. In fairness I do apologize for comparing him to Mine That Bird, it wasn't fair to the horse, nevermind the connections. This is Derby fever, though, and it's questionable to send him unless he's got an excuse, even if it it's a 'he wasn't mentally ready but now he gets it' thing. I don't see how we can ignore that.

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

Anyone that invests money in horse-racing and has an opportunity to run in the derby should take it. A shot in the dark,probably, but if you can get in then you deserve to get in because you spent the money. I'm know many horses over the last few years are in the race because their owners want to say they owned a derby horse and have little chance to win. But if the new or small time owners don't get a chance then why in the hell follow a dream and invest in the game at all.

[Ogygian]

Thats why they run the race, did anyone give Giacomo or Closing Argument a chance. At some point they had to do something to get the earnings. Its kinda like the Pistons playing in th playoff's with a losing record, it's like the Chargers getting in the Playoff's at 8-8 and others left out with better records. It's kinda hard to bash connections with Derby fever, I have to believe if any of us had a sound horse and the chances of ever being in that position again are slim to none, why not enjoy the ride.
It's kinda like a chip and chair boys...

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

In an unrelated story, individuals from certain high schools, regardless of athletic ability, should not apply to Division I colleges -- they are foolish for wanting to play football for the NFL. The point totals they put on the board is clearly due to inferior competition.

Those without a country club membership, even with a high IQ, should not apply to Ivy League schools either -- be happy that they will easily let you into community college.

And why are those kids singing on American Idol? For a shot at a recording contract? Please....

The new American way: aggressively seek the minimum and mediocrity...higher aspirations be damned...seek to sustain a self-imposed caste system and never reach higher than eye-level.

[Travis Stone]

It's a horse race, anything can, and often does, happen. And oh yeah, it's the Kentucky Derby. An extremely small percentage of horses actually have a shot at the race, and an even smaller amount actually make it.

Whether or not horses belong is an argument and discussion we could have for ages. Because, truthfully, there are lots of horses who have not, never will, did not or do not belong. But its the biggest race, it's the biggest stage.

I find it extremely hard to believe that more than 95% of the people on this board would skip the race if they had a chance to run. It's easy when you're behind a keyboard, but if you owned one of these horses, it's not as easy to type "pass."

[blackthroatedwind]

I assume that Atomic Rain is running as, essentially, a rabbit for West Side Bernie, or at least to ensure that Quality Road doesn't stroll along on the lead. Of course this was supposed to be the case in the Wood, and instead he was passively tucked inside, and had zero affect on the race one way or another. He probably isn't fast enough to keep up with a good horse early.....and he certainly isn't fast enough to run with one late. But, what the hell, at least he ensures that there will be one less horse entered that could finish ahead of West Side Bernie.

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world. It's relative, but defending Atomic Rain, especially by using Giacomo, doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

[Kasept]

My reaction was more provoked by the ridiculousness of Mine That Bird going than anything else. I hadn't paid any attention to Atomic Rain until multiple viewings of the Wood. I actually was far more interested in West Side Bernie. I think it's apparant in the Wood that Atomic Rain had plenty of traffic to deal with in the stretch and persevered after having been part of the pace from the opening. The three horses that finished ahead of him were all rallying wider while he was pocketed. I didn't give him a thought until seeing how he hung in after things finally opened up in deepest stretch. From my vantage point, that was a very good try.

I certainly can't a fault horse for an off effort at Tampa, and while he may only be an ALW horse when it's said and done, I think he is way more worthy of a Derby slot than a Mine That Bird. We also don't know what Breen is seeing from the horse in these 2 weeks post-Wood. The timing and effort have suited him really well, and the horse may be blossoming. Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It's a horse race, anything can, and often does, happen. And oh yeah, it's the Kentucky Derby. An extremely small percentage of horses actually have a shot at the race, and an even smaller amount actually make it.

Whether or not horses belong is an argument and discussion we could have for ages. Because, truthfully, there are lots of horses who have not, never will, did not or do not belong. But its the biggest race, it's the biggest stage.

I find it extremely hard to believe that more than 95% of the people on this board would skip the race if they had a chance to run. It's easy when you're behind a keyboard, but if you owned one of these horses, it's not as easy to type "pass."

I agree 100%...look at Win Willy's connections. I am sure alot of people wondered why he was in the Rebel to begin with...Mac took a shot and it paid off. Now he has a shot of a lifetime if he does run. I have to believe that number would be 100% that wouldn't pass up the opportunity to run.

Is it possible to insult Breen?

[justindew]

Atomic Rain has little chance of making the race anyway.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My reaction was more provoked by the ridiculousness of Mine That Bird going than anything else. I hadn't paid any attention to Atomic Rain until multiple viewings of the Wood. I actually was far more interested in West Side Bernie. I think it's apparant in the Wood that Atomic Rain had plenty of traffic to deal with in the stretch and persevered after having been part of the pace from the opening. The three horses that finished ahead of him were all rallying wider while he was pocketed. I didn't give him a thought until seeing how he hung in after things finally opened up in deepest stretch. From my vantage point, that was a very good try.

I certainly can't a fault horse for an off effort at Tampa, and while he may only be an ALW horse when it's said and done, I think he is way more worthy of a Derby slot than a Mine That Bird. We also don't know what Breen is seeing from the horse in these 2 weeks post-Wood. The timing and effort have suited him really well, and the horse may be blossoming. Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.

Just because horses are pocketed doesn't mean they had tough trips. In fact, it often means they had decent trips. Yeah, Atomic Rain was pocketed into the stretch, and until about the eighth pole, and then the field separated itself, and ran away from Atomic Rain. He wasn't " courageous " at all....he was too slow. And, remember something else, the winner had lengths of trouble, which makes his margin of finish over Atomic Rain larger than it actually was.

Frankly, Atomic Rain has not given a great indication that he can even be a successful allowance horse at this time. Maybe if they run him shorter he will improve, but he seems somewhat disance challenged.....and slow.

I understand Mine That Bird is another poorly placed entrant....however how much worse are his pps, honestly, than those of Atomic Rain?

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I assume that Atomic Rain is running as, essentially, a rabbit for West Side Bernie, or at least to ensure that Quality Road doesn't stroll along on the lead. Of course this was supposed to be the case in the Wood, and instead he was passively tucked inside, and had zero affect on the race one way or another. He probably isn't fast enough to keep up with a good horse early.....and he certainly isn't fast enough to run with one late. But, what the hell, at least he ensures that there will be one less horse entered that could finish ahead of West Side Bernie.

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world. It's relative, but defending Atomic Rain, especially by using Giacomo, doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

I was only comparing possible odds, in 05 Giacomos morning line was 50-1, there were 4 others listed at 50-1 morning line. He was for all intensive purposes listed as one of the 5 longest shots to win the race.So was he given a snowball's chance, no he wasn't. If Atomic Rain makes the race, he finish a well beaten 18th. What aggravates me more is cross entering in the Derby and Oaks and possibly taking up a spot. Its not like if AR goes he will be taking a "better" horses spot.

[slotdirt]

I heart West Side Bernie, distance-limited pedigree and all.