Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I think he is better when he ships to KY vs shipping to NY. I don't have the numbers to back that up though.

Good call.

Past Five Years:

KY - 26% w/ a $4.21 ROI (obviously a bit skewed by Miesque's Approval)

NY - 12% w/ a $1.31 ROI

[VOL JACK]

we wll get em tomorrow Dougie...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Distaff

A repeat of Unrivaled Belle's only other race over this track could probably win this race.

She beat Rachel Alexandra by a head on Kentucky Oaks day at 8.5fs in a rapidly run 1:42 4/5. By comparison - Blind Luck needed 1:50 3/5 that day to win the Ky Oaks .. basically Unrivaled Belle's race was six full lengths superior in terms of final times. She's the older female I want.

Blind Luck has improved since the Ky Oaks. She's very good. She has had a very tough campaign - and I guess you could make something of her repetitive lead switching in the stretch last time out .. I expect her to run well - if she was a speed horse or a presser - I think the chances of her hard season catching up to her would be something I'd worry about more.

I like a big longshot in this race. Seeking The Title had absolutely no chance in the world last time out. She was stuck behind an impossibly slow pace over a wet track. Dallas Stewart is one of my least favorite trainers - but his horses do run their best at Churchill for whatever reason and this will be her first CD start - and Calvin Borel has been lethal on these hapless looking one-dimensional closers at Churchill. I wouldn't be surprised if this horse wakes up.

Thankfully this was the last race and it got me out. If Seeking the Title can snag 4th I absolutely kill it.

Whoever was riding Acoma pulled her up about 50 yards before the wire - and she just saved 4th by a desperate nose. The Stewards should remind these riders that people bet down to 4th place.

That was one nose from being a bad situation.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

we wll get em tomorrow Dougie...

I hope so man.

Zenyatta is 1/2.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I hope so man.

Zenyatta is 1/2.

QR is 12-1. 4th choice in double, not much seperates 2-4. I thought it would be a bit more spead out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Zenyatta 1/2 VS Quality Road 12/1 is amusing.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Whoever was riding Acoma pulled her up about 50 yards before the wire - and she just saved 4th by a desperate nose. The Stewards should remind these riders that people bet down to 4th place.

That was one nose from being a bad situation.

Didn't Acoma run 5th, beaten over 2 lengths for 4th?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Didn't Acoma run 5th, beaten over 2 lengths for 4th?

Yeah, my bad, Acoma edged Acting Happy by a nose for 5th and not 4th ... It's Tea Time (another horse like Acoma who I couldn't have included on my super ticket in a million years was 4th)

However, they had a Super High Five thingy on that race ... so, technically, the point remains the same ... the rider of Acoma almost cost someone a big score in the Super High Five by basically standing up with 50 yards to go while Jose Lezcano was riding for his life for 5th on Acting Happy to miss by a nose.

The Stewards need to remind these jocks to ride for 5th I suppose... but only in Super High Five races.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah, my bad, Acoma edged Acting Happy by a nose for 5th and not 4th ... It's Tea Time (another horse like Acoma who I couldn't have included on my super ticket in a million years was 4th)

However, they had a Super High Five thingy on that race ... so, technically, the point remains the same ... the rider of Acoma almost cost someone a big score in the Super High Five by basically standing up with 50 yards to go while Jose Lezcano was riding for his life for 5th on Acting Happy to miss by a nose.

The Stewards need to remind these jocks to ride for 5th I suppose... but only in Super High Five races.

All races, because they pay down to 5th. They're cheating the owner and trainer if they don't.

The Super High Five sure is a dumb bet isn't it?

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Sprint

However, with Big Drama drawing the rail - and taking into consideration that the three horses above are probably all going to get a little more aggressive ride because they're all longshots... I think there's probably enough pace in here to setup Warrior's Reward.

What do you think of Supreme Summit's chances? That was a nice rally in the Ancient Title. His race at GP was okay, and in his only other dirt start, he had a valid excuse for a terrible performance.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not using SS.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not using SS.

Im standing alone with 2,12 on a number of different tickets including all/uncle moe and all/stay thirsty, uncle moe.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Mile

A simple exacta backwheel of Gio Ponti to the only rational contenders is a bet I've had a great deal of luck with on multiple occasions this year.

His win last time out was in a race just tailor made for him. You had 3 quality speeds. One hopeless speed that was going to go out and spoil the race for the 3 quality speeds... and basically the only two remaining horse were Gio Ponti in the hapless Society's Chairman.

Gio Ponti won what amounted to a match race over Society's Chairman in a final time slower than Provisio needed to edge out C. S Silk at the same distance on the same card. The three quality speeds in there where all compromised by the desperate and hopeless cheap speed.

The performance by Gio Ponti was so underwhelming - that it's got me scratching my head and wondering if he's good enough to run 2nd here - and if the bet is even worth it because he will attract money.

I'm going back to the well one more time. I'll be keying Gio Ponti in the 2nd slot - using only Paco Boy, The Usual QT, Sidney's Candy, and Goldikova in the top slot.

Nice call. He's almost a Perfect Driftish sure thing on the backweel.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Thanks. The Usual QT and Paco Boy getting 3rd and 4th was big for me. Hadn't been a good day at all to that point.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Thanks. The Usual QT and Paco Boy getting 3rd and 4th was big for me. Hadn't been a good day at all to that point.

Good job Doug.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Turf

The Euro's will dominate this race. It's inevitable.


Classic

Quality Road has several races that win this. His last two performances at Saratoga aren't among them however. I expect him to win.

Blame seems very certain to get a piece. He would rank among the all-time worst BC Classic winners ever if he's somehow able to pull this off...but a simple combo of QR running to his Saratoga form, Haynesfield getting softened up enough by QR and Zenyatta failing to adjust to the pace - would figure to make Blame the most likely winner.

I'm not going to use Zenyatta in the trifecta or superfecta. I don't like her chances of winning - especially in relation to her odds - and I hate her chances of running like 3rd or 4th - or maybe even 2nd to any horse outside of Quality Road.

If Zenyatta is able to run 12 to 15 lengths faster early than she's been running - and is still comfortable with going that fast early - and doesn't lose her final kick ... she'll probably absolutely blow the doors off of this field. Forget about a narrow win .. it will be a good margin. I'll believe it when I see it. I expect her to look way flatter than she's ever looked and hopefully she's unable to grind it out for 4th. She's a true wildcard at best in there - and is going to be bet like a horse who has several recent races on her form that put her in the winners circle with a repeat.

I caught the late double - but not exactly for that much.

Chalk this years Breeders Cup up as a stalemate and put one in the tie column.

Had Champ Pegasus actually won the Breeders Cup Turf - I would have been skinned alive and lost everything in a certain account. I'd be in need of the suicide hotline number at the least. I took a position placing everything against him in a market.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I caught the late double - but not exactly for that much.

Chalk this years Breeders Cup up as a stalemate and put one in the tie column.

Had Champ Pegasus actually won the Breeders Cup Turf - I would have been skinned alive and lost everything in a certain account. I'd be in need of the suicide hotline number at the least. I took a position placing everything against him in a market.

That is why I could never book bets on horses.
I'd be the guy that lays the kids college funds on a horse like Mine that Bird in the Derby.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I caught the late double - but not exactly for that much.

Chalk this years Breeders Cup up as a stalemate and put one in the tie column.

Had Champ Pegasus actually won the Breeders Cup Turf - I would have been skinned alive and lost everything in a certain account. I'd be in need of the suicide hotline number at the least. I took a position placing everything against him in a market.

He did open up turning for home, lol...
For a split second I thought he was OK.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I caught the late double - but not exactly for that much.

Chalk this years Breeders Cup up as a stalemate and put one in the tie column.

Had Champ Pegasus actually won the Breeders Cup Turf - I would have been skinned alive and lost everything in a certain account. I'd be in need of the suicide hotline number at the least. I took a position placing everything against him in a market.

Which is why he lost.