3/27-29 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I get it. You like him Saturday, so that makes him a value play at 30-1. I think Cairo Prince lays over this field. The only value I can hope for is that your horse gets bet in exotics and Prince is not as big a favorite in the pick 3 and pick 4 that he should be.

I haven't really begun to look at this race yet but pacewise, he looks as though he can sit a preferable trip and if he is as good as advertised (figurewise - if you can trust BRIS - there was not much at all between CP's Holy Bull {104}
and Constitution's last {103)}.
Additionally, he's one of a few from the FL route to the Derby that has a shot at getting 1 1/4th. So yes, locking in 30-1 is a steal if you can get it because if he wins (and I believe he has every chance) He would have to be considered one of 3 or 4 prohibitive favorites, thus 30-1 or anything close will be a dream. Where, conversely, taking 6-1 on Cairo Prince would be insane.

[declansharbor]

Bet the field. Hope an "unknown" jumps up and wins one of the final preps. Pray he continues to progess for May.


That's my plan, as horrible as that sounds. Lol

[Dunbar]

Not much love for Sunland. Chitu is 30-1 with about 72K in the win pool.

--Dunbar

[tanner12oz]

Is chitu even pointing to the derby? Seemed to be known to all that the distance simply ain't happening?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

Joesph - I hope you seriously considered taking 19-1 before the race. Not trying to rub it in. He's going to be 5-1 or less if he fortunate enough to make it to the Derby and looks like he's only going to get better with the extra panel.

[tanner12oz]

I dont think for 1 second he will be 5-1 or under...your serious right?

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 ~ Final Odds

Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds

1. Albano, 45-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 35-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 9-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 9-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 13-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)

7. Chitu, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 19-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 24-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 15-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)

13. Midnight Hawk, 50-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 45-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 24-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 17-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 11-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 30-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1

19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 45-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 35-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 35-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 5-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5

(f) – denotes field entry

[letswastemoney]

Poor bettors got 9/1 on Cairo Prince, when he's going to be 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Poor bettors got 9/1 on Cairo Prince, when he's going to be 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby.

He's going to be in the Derby?

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Kasept

He's going to be in the Derby?

It should be enough points to get in, if they intend to go. 24 points was good enough last year and the bubble horses tend to drop out the last week.

I haven't read anything that they don't intend to go.

[Kasept]

They are going to need a few things to break their way over the next 2 weeks. The Tonalists, Social Inclusions, Schoolofhardrocks, Gala Awards and Bayerns will be leapfrogging him right quick.

[tanner12oz]

I don't think he gets in..

[Indian Charlie]

Perhaps Cairo Prince ran the race he really was supposed to, and has been massively overhyped from day one.

I don't see it likely he's a legit Derby threat.

[pmayjr]

If he ran in the Fountain of Youth, and then had that same flat performance yesterday I think most of us would agree with that sentiment. Asking someone to go 1 1/8 off a layoff since January is asking a lot IMO. I just think 2nd-off the shelf he has every chance to improve.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Perhaps Cairo Prince ran the race he really was supposed to, and has been massively overhyped from day one.

I don't see it likely he's a legit Derby threat.

wasn't he like 4/5 going onto yesterday with his only loss being by a head to honor code I think? I agree that he had some hype to him but compared to others in the mix he was far from being a paper champion

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

If he ran in the Fountain of Youth, and then had that same flat performance yesterday I think most of us would agree with that sentiment. Asking someone to go 1 1/8 off a layoff since January is asking a lot IMO. I just think 2nd-off the shelf he has every chance to improve.

will make him a must use in the Peter pan or preakness then :-)

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

wasn't he like 4/5 going onto yesterday with his only loss being by a head to honor code I think? I agree that he had some hype to him but compared to others in the mix he was far from being a paper champion

The remsen was ugly and honor code hasn't done much since then.

He hasn't beaten much of anything and there are several in this crop that are clearly better than him.

On the plus side, he does strike me as a type of horse that can easily improve with age, but for his chances in the derby? He will need much to go perfectly his way to win, and that is including things before the race even happens.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

will make him a must use in the Peter pan or preakness then :-)

assuming he doesn't make the Derby. I think he finds a way to eek in.