2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Omaha Beach.

I respect it, but strongly disagree.
Exciting 1st race at Aqueduct tomorrow. Who do you like?
I'm leaning 1,7....

[RHT2004]

Assuming nothing crazy happens with the draw...
My Derby 2 are Roadster and Tacticus.

[declansharbor]

Per Laffit Pincay Jr, Smith chose Omaha Beach for the Run for the Roses.

Chose the logical choice, imo. Great dilemma to have.

[Kasept]

Florent Geroux gets Roadster; Manny Franco lands Spinoff..

Calls remain open on Cutting Humor (Pletcher), Country House (Mott) & Gray Magician (Miller)

[JBJake]

Think it is a bad move on Smith's part regardless of who he feels is the better horse. Maybe Baffert does not care and will still use him on all of his live mounts but seems like a big risk.

Didn't Martin Garcia piss off Mr Baffert once? How did that work out?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by JBJake

Think it is a bad move on Smith's part regardless of who he feels is the better horse. Maybe Baffert does not care and will still use him on all of his live mounts but seems like a big risk.

Didn't Martin Garcia piss off Mr Baffert once? How did that work out?

Garcia is not Mike Smith. This will have no impact.

[JBJake]

You are probably correct about that and certainly correct about Garcia and Smith.

[richard burch]

as of right now.....I am liking these. Since Harvey and Toddy let me down I have to re-group. Will try to cut 1 or 2 before the race and try a few box ex and tri's....bbut that is subject to change.

5/4 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Tacitus 150 (Mott/J. Ortiz) $610,000
2. Omaha Beach 137.5 (Mandella/Smith) $1,050,000
5. Roadster 100 (Baffert/Geroux) $636,000
8. Game Winner 85 (Baffert/Rosario) $1,810,000
11. Improbable 65 (Baffert/I. Ortiz) $589,520

.....or I could just bet every horse who isn't a Baffert or Pletcher entry which eliminates 5.

[LITF]

Looks like the hype is starting for By My Standards...Any thoughts on his pedigree? I really like this horse but am having a difficult time convincing myself that Goldencents can get a horse to run 10F. Don’t know much about A Jealous Woman. Probably just overthinking it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by richard burch

as of right now.....I am liking these. Since Harvey and Toddy let me down I have to re-group. Will try to cut 1 or 2 before the race and try a few box ex and tri's....bbut that is subject to change.

5/4 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Tacitus 150 (Mott/J. Ortiz) $610,000
2. Omaha Beach 137.5 (Mandella/Smith) $1,050,000
5. Roadster 100 (Baffert/Geroux) $636,000
8. Game Winner 85 (Baffert/Rosario) $1,810,000
11. Improbable 65 (Baffert/I. Ortiz) $589,520

.....or I could just bet every horse who isn't a Baffert or Pletcher entry which eliminates 5.

My ranking right now looks something like:

1. Tacitus
2. Omaha Beach
3. Tax
4. Vekoma
5. Game Winner

I’ll narrow it down eventually. I might be the only person that really likes Tax.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by LITF

Looks like the hype is starting for By My Standards...Any thoughts on his pedigree? I really like this horse but am having a difficult time convincing myself that Goldencents can get a horse to run 10F. Don’t know much about A Jealous Woman. Probably just overthinking it.

From a 2013 press release:

Hard knocking A Jealous Woman comes off a game win over the course in the Megahertz Stakes on Jan. 19 and is at the top of her game at age seven. Sent to the sidelines in the spring of 2010 with a bowed tendon, trainer Francis Meza

“Right now, she's at her peak,” said Meza on Thursday morning. “She's at her best. Last Thursday (Feb. 7) she worked five furlongs on the grass in a bullet 59 flat with Brice (regular rider, Blanc) up. He always works her.”

Blessed with an abundance of speed, Blanc can place his mount close to, or on the lead. Owned by a pair of retired mailmen, Richard Reid and Nick Tamborrino, who race as the Three Cent Stable, A Jealous Woman has now banked $443,856 from a mark of 19-8-3-3.

A bit obscurely bred, but as a side note her fourth dam was Miss Musket, who got buried by Chris Evert the horse in a match race.

[Kasept]

Country House to Prat; Anothertwistafate will await Preakness..

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Country House to Prat; Anothertwistafate will await Preakness..

Derby Contenders breathe a sigh of relief...

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by moses

My ranking right now looks something like:

1. Tacitus
2. Omaha Beach
3. Tax
4. Vekoma
5. Game Winner

I’ll narrow it down eventually. I might be the only person that really likes Tax.

I cant argue with you because of the quality of this field. Seems though running in races at Aqueduct doesn't mean much anymore. Could be another Giacomo type year.

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Derby Contenders breathe a sigh of relief...

Yeah I bet they were afraid he’d nose them out for 15th.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah I bet they were afraid he’d nose them out for 15th.

He was 23rd on the list. He was never getting in anyway.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.