2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Mike

Why isn't Ever So Lucky listed in the Graded earnings? He was 3rd in a Grade III this year, and 2nd in a Grade II last year. Plus, he's entered in the Bluegrass, though he doesn't look good to me in that race, it's possible he could get 3rd.

On another list I saw him at $48,502.

[Mike]

Thanks. With only $48k Ever So Lucky would have to get 2nd place to have any shot.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Sabercat's connections are going to have a hard time sending him after he has no impact in the AD.

I think he goes unless he's hurt...

“Obviously, he’s got enough earnings to go,” said Ron Winchell, the 39-year-old son of Verne Winchell, the founder of Winchell’s Donuts who died in 2002. “I’m hoping in the next two starts he kind of validates himself as a real player. But even if he doesn’t win the next two races, we’re probably going forward to the Derby, just because the way it lays out. It’s such a different race. The dynamics of that race are so profoundly different. I’ve kind of changed my opinion of it the last five years. Horses that win sometimes aren’t the obvious winners. If you’ve got a horse that can get the distance and qualifies, it’s almost worth taking a shot.”

http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...hells-asmussen

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think he goes unless he's hurt...



http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...hells-asmussen

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

I like the sly move of putting Drill in the undercard at Oaklawn rather than exposing him in the Blue Grass. That way it won't be so obvious that the horse is in there to keep an AE horse out of the body of the race.

I wonder if he tries a Hail Mary with Stirred Up in one of the Keeneland races instead.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Sabercat was at the top of my list early on, even off those less than stellar wins at 2, they were wins nonetheless.. I will be interested to see if there is any progression at 3 (I can toss the Rebel as needing one) in the Ark before completely dismissing, but typically the "free ride" that the horse gets for winning the Delta Jackpot Stakes has never really impacted the the Derby trail or the Kentucky Derby

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

Trinniberg is listed as 15% for the Derby, 85% for the Preakness. Which of course means 100% for the Derby and 75% for the Preakness as well.

[justindew]

Considering Exothermic hasn't had a published work in six weeks, I'm guessing he's no longer under consideration for the Blue Grass or Lexington and my $200 Wynn futuer wager on him at 85-1 can now be used as a place to put my chewed gum.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Exothermic hasn't had a published work in six weeks, I'm guessing he's no longer under consideration for the Blue Grass or Lexington and my $200 Wynn futuer wager on him at 85-1 can now be used as a place to put my chewed gum.

Rusty Arnold on ATR earlier. Summer turf stake campaign.

[Kasept]

KEE: 4/14/12 - Blue Grass (G1) -- Current Field

Dullahan (Romans)
Ever So Lucky (Sheppard)
Hansen (Maker)
Heavy Breathing (Pletcher)
Hero of Order (Dorochenko) -- Possible
Holy Candy (Sadler)
Howe Great (Motion)
Midnight Crooner (Baffert)
Politicallycorrect (Ward)
Prospective (Casse)
Russian Greek (Dorochenko)

Adirondack King (Servis) -- Lexington
Golden Ticket (McPeek) Lexington
Scatman (Lauer) -- Lexington

Raconteur (Pletcher) -- Unlikely

[Indian Charlie]

Maybe that dolt Sheppard no longer thinks Ever So Lucky is a sprinter!

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Exothermic hasn't had a published work in six weeks, I'm guessing he's no longer under consideration for the Blue Grass or Lexington and my $200 Wynn futuer wager on him at 85-1 can now be used as a place to put my chewed gum.

$200 on a turf horse to win the Derby...

[Merlinsky]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...the-blue-grass

I get that when your horse gets a graded win, you look for other graded stakes so I'm not begrudging them the obvious course of action, esp. for a $750,000 race. It's not like they can wait on the sidelines til the Derby with some really expensive 'no no, you take this one, we'll wait.' I was just thinking that if I had a horse that missed out on sufficient Derby earnings because a another horse with no way of getting in finished ahead of mine, I'd be p'od.

Then there's the problem of an embarrassment of riches (well, two promising 3yos who've won something with the word "Derby" in it counts here). The trainer's got Russian Greek too. Was there no way to keep these two apart so the one who's Triple Crown nominated and by Giant's Causeway out of a Grindstone mare would have a better shot at getting the dough without having to deal with the one who's not TC nominated? Does Dorochenko have an ownership interest in either?

Hero of Order was bought for $3,000. It'd be a curious situation if he won 2 big Derby preps and then couldn't enter the race.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...the-blue-grass

I get that when your horse gets a graded win, you look for other graded stakes so I'm not begrudging them the obvious course of action, esp. for a $750,000 race. It's not like they can wait on the sidelines til the Derby with some really expensive 'no no, you take this one, we'll wait.' I was just thinking that if I had a horse that missed out on sufficient Derby earnings because a another horse with no way of getting in finished ahead of mine, I'd be p'od.

Then there's the problem of an embarrassment of riches (well, two promising 3yos who've won something with the word "Derby" in it counts here). The trainer's got Russian Greek too. Was there no way to keep these two apart so the one who's Triple Crown nominated and by Giant's Causeway out of a Grindstone mare would have a better shot at getting the dough without having to deal with the one who's not TC nominated? Does Dorochenko have an ownership interest in either?

Hero of Order was bought for $3,000. It'd be a curious situation if he won 2 big Derby preps and then couldn't enter the race.

If you needed to beat Hero of Order to get to the Derby, and you couldn't, I'd be pissed that my horse was nowhere near as good as I originally thought...not that I didn't make the Derby.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Kasept

KEE: 4/14/12 - Blue Grass (G1) -- Current Field

Dullahan (Romans)
Ever So Lucky (Sheppard)
Hansen (Maker)
Heavy Breathing (Pletcher)
Hero of Order (Dorochenko) -- Possible
Holy Candy (Sadler)
Howe Great (Motion)
Midnight Crooner (Baffert)
Politicallycorrect (Ward)
Prospective (Casse)
Russian Greek (Dorochenko)

Adirondack King (Servis) -- Lexington
Golden Ticket (McPeek) Lexington
Scatman (Lauer) -- Lexington

Raconteur (Pletcher) -- Unlikely

That's the most interesting Blue Grass field in a while.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

If you needed to beat Hero of Order to get to the Derby, and you couldn't, I'd be pissed that my horse was nowhere near as good as I originally thought...not that I didn't make the Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

$200 on a turf horse to win the Derby...

That's what people said about Animal Kingdom. And have you seen how the horses that Exothermic has beaten have performed in subsequent starts?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by justindew

That's what people said about Animal Kingdom. And have you seen how the horses that Exothermic has beaten have performed in subsequent starts?

I had a smaller future on Exothermic - by Empire Maker, there was every reason to think he'd get over dirt - but there really isn't much need to try now as he'll miss those classics.

[Dahoss]

There was every reason to think Exothermic would get over dirt because his sire is Empire Maker?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

There was every reason to think Exothermic would get over dirt because his sire is Empire Maker?

I was willing to take the chance that the son of a Florida Derby/Wood Memorial/Belmont winner was going to get over dirt - at 85-1. But the brilliance of his dam made it pretty clear turf would be his best game.