How good is Big Brown?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Seriously?

[skippy3481]

I agree Pgardn.. I bet against the horse and after he took the first half in 45 and change, I thought he would fold like a cheap tent..... While i haven't decided if I would play him in the derby, I do think it was one of the best preps this year and I can't wait to see how he trains up to the derby.

[hockey2315]

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned Big Brown's behavior after the race. He was a little aggressive.

[Pedigree Ann]

I have two words for you guys - Bellamy Road.

I have been around long enough that I try to resist getting too overcome with enthusiasm about a horse based on one superior race. (Remember Daaher?) Good race on a track that didn't seem kind to closers. Too bad he will be given time off to lose condition rather than another race to bring him on before the Derby.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I watched No Country for Old Men tonight and the 457 killings are affecting me.

Is that wicked or what?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I have two words for you guys - Bellamy Road.

I have been around long enough that I try to resist getting too overcome with enthusiasm about a horse based on one superior race. (Remember Daaher?) Good race on a track that didn't seem kind to closers. Too bad he will be given time off to lose condition rather than another race to bring him on before the Derby.

First, I would say he has at least two, and maybe three superior races.

Second, the track didn't appear speed favoring. The 1st race was won last to first. Chelokee and Sugar Swirl rated a few lengths back and won. Same thing in races 8, 9, and 12.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I have two words for you guys - Bellamy Road.

I have been around long enough that I try to resist getting too overcome with enthusiasm about a horse based on one superior race. (Remember Daaher?) Good race on a track that didn't seem kind to closers. Too bad he will be given time off to lose condition rather than another race to bring him on before the Derby.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

First, I would say he has at least two, and maybe three superior races.

Second, the track didn't appear speed favoring. The 1st race was won last to first. Chelokee and Sugar Swirl rated a few lengths back and won. Same thing in races 8, 9, and 12.

Agree- this is NOT Bellamy Road (who, in fairness, didn't run all that bad in that Derby. Outside of Closing Argument, who ran a ridiculously good race, none of the other pacesetters finished anywhere close.) He has THREE superior races under his belt. Curlin would be a much fairer comparison.

Third, it would be silly to run this horse again before the Derby. What exactly do they have to gain, besides potentially knocking him out with his fragile feet? The experience factor is lessened this year as the competition isn't strong. Point head, click heels, run fast. One more start in a G3 against overmatched types wouldn't offer the Derby 'experience'.

[slotdirt]

The thing that's giving me more pause about this performance than anything else is the remarkably similar performance put in by Electrify two races later. An average stakes horse did the same thing - but faster - two races later. Doesn't that make anybody else question Big Brown at least a little bit, or is it plausible that Electrify is also the second coming?

This is not withstanding the myriad of other issues with Big Brown that make me question his ability to perform in L-ville on May 3rd.

[XIIPointStables]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

The thing that's giving me more pause about this performance than anything else is the remarkably similar performance put in by Electrify two races later. An average stakes horse did the same thing - but faster - two races later. Doesn't that make anybody else question Big Brown at least a little bit, or is it plausible that Electrify is also the second coming?

This is not withstanding the myriad of other issues with Big Brown that make me question his ability to perform in L-ville on May 3rd.

Pretty much summed up my feelings. The sport needs stars and maybe Big Brown will be one. But there's enough questions handicapping-wise that to me he will not be a good bet 5/3.

[cmorioles]

No matter how good he is, I don't think he will last long enough to become a true star.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He reminds me a lot more of a Bellamy Road than a Curlin - because unlike a Curlin - I don't believe Big Brown has the ability to successfully change tactics and come from well off the pace.

I was comparing him to BR before the Florida Derby - but it had more to do with styles and preperation more than anything else.

BR made his 3yo debut in a one-turn mile alw race at GP in early March and won off by double digits off of a five month layoff. Virtually identical to what Big Brown did in his return with the same kind of layoff.

I see them both as being behind schedule - and both of them as horses who will want no part at all of being off the pace.

I think if Big Brown is taken well off the pace - you will see him not relax at all and run significantly below his ability. Where as Curlin is just as effective from deep in the pack as he is from right on the pace.

[copying]

Was Big Brown part of the "field" or "all others" in any of the KD future wagers?

[hockey2315]

Both of them