2009 Breeders' Cup

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not going to argue with you but there's absolutely no way two or three horses are going to go off lower odds in the Classic than Zenyatta. No way.

NT

I guess we will see, unless we see some defections you will be proven wrong.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Scav

Isn't always been Sprint/Turf/Classic in that order?

Before the 2 day the distaff was somewhere in there also I think.....

they reserve the right to mix it up to provide the best betting sequence.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Here are early (and meaningless) odds for all the races.

http://www.drf.com/newsletter/BCpreentries_102809.pdf

Paul

Thanks Paul, Now I won't be able to sleep thinking I'm gonna get 4-1 on RVW.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Gander

You think so? I dont think she has much of a fan base at all. It would be one thing to say this about Rachel but most people really dont even know who she is. I dont remmeber Street Sense being that popular either. To me he was very forgettable, just like Zenyatta has been.

I had typed out something long and similar to this but didnt post. I really dont get the whole "Zenyatta superstar" thing at all. She has only won one race that anyone outside the industry/gamblers would have watched, the distaff.

The only reason she may get the attention is because its in California, and that is where she has excelled.

She is definately not in the Smarty Jones/Rachel Alexandra/Cigar superstar category.. where you could ask your average football fan if you heard of the horse.. nobody knows who Zenyatta is.

I think based on popularity, and not just limited to Cali popularity, Summer Bird has the most "star" quality because he at least won a TC race. Some average joe's may know who he is. The reality is, outside of the TC and MAYBE the BC (not on the same level as the TC though), nobody knows or cares who is racing outside of gamblers.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

yea, they bet like 5 bucks (say you have 1000 of them)...there are people that will wager $5000 if they really liked someone in that race.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Thanks Paul, Now I won't be able to sleep thinking I'm gonna get 4-1 on RVW.

I wouldn't hold out much hope for that...

Paul

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I had typed out something long and similar to this but didnt post. I really dont get the whole "Zenyatta superstar" thing at all. She has only won one race that anyone outside the industry/gamblers would have watched, the distaff.

The only reason she may get the attention is because its in California, and that is where she has excelled.

She is definately not in the Smarty Jones/Rachel Alexandra/Cigar superstar category.. where you could ask your average football fan if you heard of the horse.. nobody knows who Zenyatta is.

I think based on popularity, and not just limited to Cali popularity, Summer Bird has the most "star" quality because he at least won a TC race. Some average joe's may know who he is. The reality is, outside of the TC and MAYBE the BC (not on the same level as the TC though), nobody knows or cares who is racing outside of gamblers.

dang, forgot about summer bird.....heck he goes off about the same as Zenyatta,

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

they reserve the right to mix it up to provide the best betting sequence.

Wow, they changed the lineup today....Give me a minute and I will find out

Fri: Moved the F/M Sprint to right before the Distaff
Sat: They moved the Sprint to earlier and put the Dirt and Turf Mile back to back....Like the moves

Friday
Alw/Opt Claimer 8.5f
Alw/Opt Claimer 6.5f
Breeders' Cup Marathon Marathon $500,000 1 3/4 Miles
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 mile (T)
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies I Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf I Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 1/4 Miles (T)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint I Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 Furlongs
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic I Ladies' Classic $2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles
Las Palmas

Saturday
Damascus Stakes 7f
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf II Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile (T)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Turf Sprint $1,000,000 6.5 Furlongs (T)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint I Sprint $2,000,000 6 Furlongs
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile I Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles
TVG Breeders' Cup Mile I Mile $2,000,000 1 Mile (T)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile I Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 Mile
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf I Turf $3,000,000 1 1/2 Miles (T)
Breeders' Cup Classic I Classic $5,000,000 1 1/4 Miles
Oak Tree Derby 9f Turf

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not going to argue with you but there's absolutely no way two or three horses are going to go off lower odds in the Classic than Zenyatta. No way.

NT

How much stupid money is bet on the BC? it cant be anything like the Derby where everyone wants to make a bet. If there is a lot of stupid money bet I could see her as the 2nd choice behind Summer Bird (he's a better bet but its also similar stupid money bet on him because of the lack of synthetic experience).

Based on performance it should go - the best Euro should be favored (because of the stupid surface), then Summer Bird, Gio, the next best Euro, then Zenyatta.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

Gio Ponti stinks.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think zenyatta and Rip Van Winkle will vie for favoritism. Based on last year, all Euros will be overbet. Zenyatta has a huge fan base in California. I am not sute the same can be said for Gio Ponte.

Paul

Zenayatta will take more money than 2009 HOY Summer Bird()

You know seriously he may be forgotten with Rip Van Winkle, Gio Ponti, hopefully Colonel John, Derby winners always seem to take money Mine That Bird, Richard's Kid...ect... I know he's the best horse at 1 1/4, the only question is does he have one more big race in the tank and the obvious risk of not knowing how he will fare on pro ride. Which will be a bonus to his odds if you want a positive spin of not running on dirt.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I had typed out something long and similar to this but didnt post. I really dont get the whole "Zenyatta superstar" thing at all. She has only won one race that anyone outside the industry/gamblers would have watched, the distaff.

The only reason she may get the attention is because its in California, and that is where she has excelled.

She is definately not in the Smarty Jones/Rachel Alexandra/Cigar superstar category.. where you could ask your average football fan if you heard of the horse.. nobody knows who Zenyatta is.

I think based on popularity, and not just limited to Cali popularity, Summer Bird has the most "star" quality because he at least won a TC race. Some average joe's may know who he is. The reality is, outside of the TC and MAYBE the BC (not on the same level as the TC though), nobody knows or cares who is racing outside of gamblers.

I agree 100%. If Zenyatta wins the Classic, I will be very impressed as this is a much better field of horses than Rachel took down in any of her 3 wins vs males. Then she will be interesting and a huge story. For now, shes a very good, freakishly consistent horse who only runs in races in her own element.

I still think she doesnt go here and instead opts for the Ladies Classic. Why would we expect anything else from her connections, when they have already had many opportunities to try the males? Wake me up when the Ladies Classic is over.

The Classic is going to be an awesome race, but so, so much better if Zenyatta go. I hope she does.

[Antitrust32]

Exactly Gander, this will become a moot point when Z runs in the Distaff or scratches out of both races. Maybe it will rain and they dont want to run her on wet pro-ride.. like they did at Churchill. It is very hard to root for this horse because of her chicken **** owners. Of course its not the horses fault but it become redundant and boring.

I really hope she runs in the Classic and does well.. then I can appreciate her. If she runs in the Distaff I hope she runs a non-threatening 5th, so the owners can go cry.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Gio Ponti stinks.

YES!!

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Scav

Did you bet the Breeders Cup last year?

Zenyatta has a chance to hit the board, only because she runs good over the track, but a horse like Gio Ponti will beat the piss out of her.

Yes I had a very good two days by the way. I don't really know what your point was here. I said I was in the minority, Zenyatta is an underlay...it doesn't mean she can't win.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

Gotcha, I see what you're getting at, but I think that was a bad example because he was the best horse in the field. It isn't often the best 3 run 1-2-3 in the Derby but they did in that one.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Scav

YES!!

I hope you bet him...I think there are at the very least 5 horses who are simply better, better suited for the race.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Gander

I agree 100%. If Zenyatta wins the Classic, I will be very impressed as this is a much better field of horses than Rachel took down in any of her 3 wins vs males. Then she will be interesting and a huge story. For now, shes a very good, freakishly consistent horse who only runs in races in her own element.

I still think she doesnt go here and instead opts for the Ladies Classic. Why would we expect anything else from her connections, when they have already had many opportunities to try the males? Wake me up when the Ladies Classic is over.

The Classic is going to be an awesome race, but so, so much better if Zenyatta go. I hope she does.

Then if either Z or SB win the Classic, is it fair to say they should seriously receive HOY consideration, and a horse sitting on the sidelines protecting her record should not get it via defacto.

[slotdirt]

Zenyatta doesn't deserve even a second of consideration for horse of the year regardless of what she does IF she runs in the Classic. Her schedule has been downright laughable. Summer Bird and Gio Ponti are far more likely to challenge Rachel Alexandra for the award.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Then if either Z or SB win the Classic, is it fair to say they should seriously receive HOY consideration, and a horse sitting on the sidelines protecting her record should not get it via defacto.

lordy! Yeah, cause Z didnt sit around for the WHOLE FREAKING YEAR waiting for the classic!

and Summer Bird didnt already get whopped by her!

Remember, Rachel DID run 8 times this year! and 11 times in 11 months.

This argument you keep bring up is very misguided, unless you meant 2nd in the voting when you said "HOY consideration", then it is spot on.