Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There typically is very little to no betting value in those type of impressive maiden winners.
The real value comes when you can identify very underrated horses who are soundly beaten in lesser races - and don't have the best of forms going in.
There was a horse racing blog I believe called 'Trader Pete's Boom Boom Room' that was probably the best racing Blog in the land for all of the three or four days it was running.
Trader Pete did a single 'Horses to Watch' list after Saratoga's meet concluded. He only put one horse exiting a stakes race on the list .. Big Drama - who was beaten double digit lengths in the King's Bishop.
Trader Pete put only a single 2-year-old on his watch list... a horse named Eightyfive in a Fifty who was 3rd at 27/1 odds in a maiden race in his most recent race.
Trader Pete made two nice calls - because 85ina50 won his next start by 19 lengths and Big Drama was given a layoff and returned to win the BC Sprint the following year.
Obviously - I just want to pat my buddy StoneGossard in the back - and mention his fine old site. http://traderpete.blogspot.com/
But basically, there is little value in impressive maiden winners. There's a lot more with soundly beaten horses who run better than people think. |
There was another blogger that was really good. I can't remember his name. He would come up with a play practically every day. In the first year he did it, he gave out around 160 plays (just betting to win or sometimes win and place) and the guy had an ROI for the year of +15%.
The next year he came up with even more plays. He came up with over 450 plays and his ROI was +6% that year. He had a pretty good following on the site but he finally stopped posting because he was afraid that he was costing himself money by giving out the plays to people who may be betting into the pools.
11-19-2010, 04:26 PM
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