2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agree, and I also would.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Originally Posted by cakes44

Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.

I like Game Winner and think he is the most likely of the horses to hit the board. But to win? As consistent as he’s been, he hasn’t taken that next step...yet. I also suspect the California horses are a little overrated this year.

Plus, we saw his odds rise to 7-1 in Pool 4, and that was before Omaha Beach won the Arkansas Derby. So I think we see his odds end up above 6-1.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Country House to Prat; Anothertwistafate will await Preakness..

Steve - I’ve seen a few times on HRN where it says Mott hasn’t decided on a jockey for Country House. Are they just way behind you or is Country House still riderless?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve - I’ve seen a few times on HRN where it says Mott hasn’t decided on a jockey for Country House. Are they just way behind you or is Country House still riderless?

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I know. I shouldn’t doubt you.

[MinnSkinny]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah I bet they were afraid he’d nose them out for 15th.

Nice to see you back on DT.
I have always respected your opinions.
Good luck yo you!

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

I’m starting to come around on Roadster. But I’m still having a heck of a time figuring out this race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m starting to come around on Roadster. But I’m still having a heck of a time figuring out this race.

The draw will help

[Kasept]

Corey Lanerie gets on Cutting Humor..

[moses]

Looking a little bit into horses with 4 or fewer starts. Just looked into the last 10 years but was interested to see the the trainers for those horses. If I went back 11 years, the numbers would actually look better for lightly raced horses since Big Brown and Denis of Cork both finished in the money in 2008.

Pletcher: 9 starts, 1 finish in Top 5 (Danza in 2014)
Baffert: 4 starts, 2 finishes in Top 5 (Justify in 2018, Bodemeister in 2012)
Brown: 2 starts, 0 finishes in Top 5 (My Man Sam finished 11th, Shagaf DNF in 2016)
Motion: 1 start, 1 Winner (Animal Kingdom in 2011)
Hollendorfer: 1 start, 1 finish in Top 5 (Battle of Midway in 2017)
Sharp: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Girvin finished 13th in 2017)
Mott: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Hofburg finished 7th in 2018)
Zito: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Dialed In finished 8th in 2011)
Ice: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Summer Bird finished 17th in 2009)

For Pletcher, Noble Indy finished 17th, Magnum Moon 19th, Patch 14th, Outwork 14th, Materiality 6th, Itsaknockout 9th, Verrazano 14th, Dunkirk 15th. Baffert’s other horses in that time frame were Chitu who finished 9th in 2014 and Midnight Interlude, 16th in 2011.

Anyway, for trainers not named Pletcher, they’ve got a record of 12-2-1-1, which is 17% win, 33% ITM. All-time, Baffert has a Derby record of 28-5-3-3, which is 18% win, 39% ITM.

I guess my thought is - is the fact that a horse has 4 or fewer starts really that big of a negative for them? It’s not exactly fair to just throw out Pletcher’s starters but he also sends a lot of lightly raced horses to the derby and he’s clearly skewing the numbers in recent years.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was 23rd on the list. He was never getting in anyway.

Shoulda stuck around.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Shoulda stuck around.

I still like Anothertwistafate but his performance in the Lexington shows me that he was not going to be ready for the Derby. Hopefully he benefits from coming back a little bit fresher in 3 weeks.

[richard burch]

So the "real" winner is bypassing?

[ninetoone]

Curious to see how the morning line plays out here!

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Kasept

5/18 (PIM): PREAKNESS STAKES

1. Country House (Mott/Prat)
2. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione)
3. Code of Honor (Shug/McGaughey)
4. Laughing Fox (Asmussen/Vasquez)
5. Mr. Money (Calhoun/G. Saez)
6. Anothertwistafate (Wright/TBA)
7. Owendale (Cox/Geroux)
8. Alwaysmining (Rubley/Centeno)
9. Signalman (McPeek/B. Hernandez)

Hell, Alwaysmining has as good a shot as any of those.

[moses]

I was just thinking about this - Flavien Prat decided to get off Omaha Beach earlier this year and was replaced with Mike Smith. I felt bad for him when Omaha Beach ended up running so well after he had switched horses. I can’t even remember who he chose over Omaha Beach. Was it Galilean? Anyway, he was one of the last jockeys to get a ride in the derby, obviously picking up Country House.

The two jockeys who rode Country House prior to Prat - Joel Rosario and Luis Saez - both ended up on two of the top horses and at least arguably cost their horses the win (Rosario going too wide, Saez with the foul).

[ninetoone]

Looks like a good betting race. I expect Mr. Money will get some attention, even with the 92 Beyer.

[Kasept]

Improbable a yes for Preakness; Smith rides..

[cakes44]

Okay now we are talkin'.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Improbable a yes for Preakness; Smith rides..

Improbable/Owendale exacta