Santa Anita showvivor March 2nd

[bigrun]

Best of luck db, what's the tie breaker?...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Whoa awesome run my friend.

So what happens now? Who wins out of the 8 left?

Congratulations!

Thanks a bunch. I kind of stumbled across the finish line today. The horse I finally settled on after numerous changes of mind finished 2nd, but was only a little more than a half-length ahead of the 4th place horse. (Also, a horse I was very seriously considering in the 2nd race finished 4th.)

One person was knocked out today--the one who picked a horse in the 8th race. So that leaves 7 of us in the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is the highest single show payoff up until April 13. My best payoff was $3.40. (on Halfponderosa on 3/15).

If a 2nd tiebreaker is needed, it will go to the highest show payoff after 4/13. Mine would be $2.20, so I'd better collect on the first tiebreaker, or I'll come up empty-handed.

They could post the final standings anytime. I would think they'd have the process pretty well automated.

Thanks a lot for all the support, mmsc. Thank you A, br, IK, and OM, too! You made it a lot of fun.

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

--Dunbar

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Thanks a bunch. I kind of stumbled across the finish line today. The horse I finally settled on after numerous changes of mind finished 2nd, but was only a little more than a half-length ahead of the 4th place horse. (Also, a horse I was very seriously considering in the 2nd race finished 4th.)

One person was knocked out today--the one who picked a horse in the 8th race. So that leaves 7 of us in the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is the highest single show payoff up until April 13. My best payoff was $3.40. (on Halfponderosa on 3/15).

If a 2nd tiebreaker is needed, it will go to the highest show payoff after 4/13. Mine would be $2.20, so I'd better collect on the first tiebreaker, or I'll come up empty-handed.

They could post the final standings anytime. I would think they'd have the process pretty well automated.

Thanks a lot for all the support, mmsc. Thank you A, br, IK, and OM, too! You made it a lot of fun.

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

--Dunbar

Whatever the outcome, very well done.

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Thanks a bunch. I kind of stumbled across the finish line today. The horse I finally settled on after numerous changes of mind finished 2nd, but was only a little more than a half-length ahead of the 4th place horse. (Also, a horse I was very seriously considering in the 2nd race finished 4th.)

One person was knocked out today--the one who picked a horse in the 8th race. So that leaves 7 of us in the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is the highest single show payoff up until April 13. My best payoff was $3.40. (on Halfponderosa on 3/15).

If a 2nd tiebreaker is needed, it will go to the highest show payoff after 4/13. Mine would be $2.20, so I'd better collect on the first tiebreaker, or I'll come up empty-handed.

They could post the final standings anytime. I would think they'd have the process pretty well automated.

Thanks a lot for all the support, mmsc. Thank you A, br, IK, and OM, too! You made it a lot of fun.

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

--Dunbar

Good run db, wish you the best....Is there only one winner?...

[Immanuel Kant]

WTG Dunbar.....

The tie-breaker, IMO, seems a curious choice. It's as if luck is being awarded. The highest show price would more than likely be a poor choice to make in a survivor contest, ie. big price, why use long odds in this type of contest?

I understand the value of high odds horses...it's how you beat the real game. However, in a contest where all you need to be is in the money and at a track where 5 horse fields are commonplace, getting a longshot to hang on or clunk up for third is luck not pre-designed accomplishment.

[3kings]

Haven't followed this thread but congrats on a job well done Dunbar. Any update on the final result?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Haven't followed this thread but congrats on a job well done Dunbar. Any update on the final result?

Thanks, 3k. They put up some "highest show payout" figs for the 7 of us, but they've screwed up somehow. My fig is wrong and probably all the figs are wrong. They'll probably get it straightened out tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Immanuel Kant

The tie-breaker, IMO, seems a curious choice. It's as if luck is being awarded. The highest show price would more than likely be a poor choice to make in a survivor contest, ie. big price, why use long odds in this type of contest?

I understand the value of high odds horses...it's how you beat the real game. However, in a contest where all you need to be is in the money and at a track where 5 horse fields are commonplace, getting a longshot to hang on or clunk up for third is luck not pre-designed accomplishment.

IK, I don't have any problem with the tiebreaker. What else could they use? As long as it was clearly in the rules, which it was, we all had a chance to consider it when making our picks. The only thing that comes quickly to mind that would maybe make more sense would be to use the total of all show payoffs as the tiebreaker.

If they keep the current tiebreaker for the next contest, it would probably make sense to take some early risks to try to nail a bigger payoff.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'll post some stats soon. Hypothetical $100 parlay and hypothetical $100 flat bets...

hmm...I wrote that on Apr 22. I guess my current definition of "soon" is 2+ weeks. Here are the stats...

I made 31 picks in the Showvivor contest. 5 of them were in races with no show betting. So that left 26 successful show bets.

PARLAY
A $100 parlay would have ended up growing to $1899, with another $9.05 in fractional dollar accumulation. (for example, my bet on the 3rd day was $195 and the $2.10 payoff returned $204.75. I "pocketed" the 75c and bet $204 on the 4th day.) The "growth" to $1899+$9.05 assumes that my bets wouldn't have affected the payoff.

Making 19 times your money is nothing to sniff at. Too bad I didn't make a single real bet on any of those picks.

FLAT BET
My ROI for a $2 bet was $2.26, a +13% return. My total return on the 26 show bets was $58.80, a profit of $6.80. $100 flat bets would have netted $340.

That's all pretty cool, but I don't have good records of the previous 7 Showvivor/Show Me The Money contests I've entered. I clearly have 7 losses in there, so that's -$14. I'm pretty sure I didn't accumulate enough winning bets in the previous 7 to have overcome the remaining $14-$6.80 = $7.20 of losses.

--Dunbar