134th Preakness Field Close to Set - Page 12

Gander · #**222** 05-12-2009, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

Wow, I'd like 9/1 on Big Drama and hope you are right and I am wrong about what his price will be.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Bernardini was 13/1 because of Barbaro being in the race, but you are right, Bernardini and Big Drama had pretty similar resumes heading into the Preakness. Key difference is Barbaro won the Derby that year and Mine that Bird won it this year.

Travis Stone · #**223** 05-12-2009, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Mine that bird second for some strange reason

If it was any race but the Preakness he would be higher... it's simply the Derby winner / public money etc.

Antitrust32 · #**224** 05-12-2009, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Wow, I'd like 9/1 on Big Drama and hope you are right and I am wrong about what his price will be.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Bernardini was 13/1 because of Barbaro being in the race, but you are right, Bernardini and Big Drama had pretty similar resumes heading into the Preakness. Key difference is Barbaro won the Derby that year and Mine that Bird won it this year.

Yes but isnt Rachel Alexandra this years Barbaro?

Travis Stone · #**225** 05-12-2009, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Yes but isnt Rachel Alexandra this years Barbaro?

I don't think she's quite that powerful in terms of odds impact, but she'll definitely stirr it up.

Gander · #**226** 05-12-2009, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't think she's quite that powerful in terms of odds impact, but she'll definitely stirr it up.

Neither do I. She still has lots to prove and maybe she will, but my money says she wont on Saturday.

ateamstupid · #**227** 05-12-2009, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

2-1 is my odds cutoff for using Rachel. Less than that, I'll try to beat her, but anything higher and she gets my money. I doubt MTB will take quite that much money. I'd say POTN will be closer to 4-1 and MTB will be closer to 7-1. Never underestimate the Baffert Buzz Factor™.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #**228** 05-12-2009, 06:27 PM

I'm bettin' the horse with front bandages

Bigsmc · #**229** 05-12-2009, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

Is philcski.com offering 9-1 on Big Drama?

philcski · #**230** 05-12-2009, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Is philcski.com offering 9-1 on Big Drama?

philcski.com is bidding 9-1 on Big Drama.
He's offering it at 6-1.

Keep in mind, new shooters in the Preakness are habitually underbet relative to their actual abilities. Bernardini was 13-1. Macho Again last year, despite the fact that the Derby horses had proven they had next to zero chance of beating Big Brown, was an absurd 45-1. Scrappy T, off a sparkling Withers win, was 25-1.

My odds are "true line" odds- i.e., with a 16% takeout, so unless I'm very wrong on Rachel, MTB, and POTN, the rest of the horses can only go so low.

ninetoone · #**231** 05-12-2009, 07:05 PM

I can't see FF being 10-1...I'd expect him to be favored over MTB actually....

Bigsmc · #**232** 05-12-2009, 07:08 PM

Definitely an interesting exercise, esp. with this particular race.

Danzig · #**233** 05-12-2009, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Montbrook is definitely not a 9.5f specialist, I'll tell you that much. I like Big Drama, but his pedigree screams mile or less.

i like him too, but not here.

Danzig · #**234** 05-12-2009, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I can't see FF being 10-1...I'd expect him to be favored over MTB actually....

really? you don't think people will be put off by him only beating flying private in the derby?

ninetoone · #**235** 05-12-2009, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

really? you don't think people will be put off by him only beating flying private in the derby?

Nope. I definitely see him as favored over MTB. No way he goes from the Derby favorite to 10-1 in this race. I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

Gander · #**236** 05-12-2009, 08:15 PM

I dont see the Derby as a race that most rational bettors use a gauge to determine the chances of a particular horse next out. Theres always too many horses causing atypical trips, and this year's Derby was run in slop, albeit Friesan Fire is a horse who likes it wet. Like every year, there are a few very logical horses who had excuses.

Friesan Fire is a tough one to gauge odds on but I would guess much lower than 10/1. Maybe 6/1?

Danzig · #**237** 05-12-2009, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont see the Derby as a race that most rational bettors use a gauge to determine the chances of a particular horse next out. Theres always too many horses causing atypical trips, and this year's Derby was run in slop, albeit Friesan Fire is a horse who likes it wet. Like every year, there are a few very logical horses who had excuses.

Friesan Fire is a tough one to gauge odds on but I would guess much lower than 10/1. Maybe 6/1?

that's the thing-he had some good races, but fell so flat in ky, and supposedly liked an off track. second off a layoff tho, with his seven week break from his last to the derby...

i like rachel, but i really like musket man here and would definitely use him in ex's and tri's.

Sightseek · #**238** 05-12-2009, 08:45 PM

General Quarters was involved in a very minor van accident after the driver missed the exit to Pimlico, he's Ok:

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...-accident.aspx

It would be pretty weird to make a stop at Wendy's and see the Derby winner peeking his head out of the window of the trailer.

Danzig · #**239** 05-12-2009, 09:26 PM

i'm thinking that won't be the last time flying private and luv gov show up late...

philcski · #**240** 05-12-2009, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Nope. I definitely see him as favored over MTB. No way he goes from the Derby favorite to 10-1 in this race. I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

Unlikely. Had he run an indifferent 8th or something, maybe, but he finished 2nd last beaten 43 lengths. You and I know that was not a real effort but the majority of the people betting the Preakness will not look past it.