The Great Republican Hope

[Riot]

Originally Posted by GBBob

It's more about electability

1) A third Bush?
2) A guy known as the ringleader of the crew that stole it from Gore?

I'll give Jeb that I would have preferred him to his brother, and I think even their father would have preferred Jeb be the one to go nationally, but I can never see him being electable nationally. Two reasons: see GGBob's post

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You realize that throwing numbers out there that not only arent valid but arent mathmatically valid weakens your take on things? Surely if 1/3 of the GOP voted for Obama he would have had a far greater margin of victory unless an unusually high % of Democrats voted against him (which didnt happen)

You obviously know my numbers are wrong, so you must have different ones, so post yours.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by gales0678

tell me why if the economy continues to spiral downhill , why wouldn't he have a chance

The economy stopped spiraling the first quarter of this year. Jobless numbers were released today, they are down for the first time in ages.

It could go back the other way, certainly, it's still dicey and there's alot yet to get through, but alot of our economic strength does depend on confidence in the way things are being directed.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

By the way, if that Rev. Wright story would've broken a little earlier in the primary season, Bubba would've been back in business, in my estimation...

The Rev. Wright story was broken by Hillary during the Dem primaries. It failed to get any traction there as it was nonsensical, and it failed - again - when the GOP tried to resurrect it.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

CNN. Obama got 9% of the Republican votes, McCain got 10% of the Democrat votes (think Appalachia), and Obama won the independents 52 to 44 percent.

If you break it down by voters identifying themselves as Liberal/Moderate/Conservative then he got 20% of the Conservative vote.

Maybe that last is what I'm trying to remember.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Riot

Jobless numbers were released today, they are down for the first time in ages.

Unless you are talking about your individual state you are completely wrong here.

[Riot]

Right - I found what I read, it referred not to jobless numbers, but rather to unemployment insurance claims:

FoxNews today:

"The Labor Department said the total unemployment insurance rolls fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week ending June 6, the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline is a sign that layoffs are easing."

"The drop also breaks a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims, the last 19 of which were records. A dip in continuing claims several weeks ago was later revised higher."

"The four-week average of claims has dropped by about 40,000 from nearly 659,000 in early April, its peak for the current recession."

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Riot

Right - I found what I read, it referred not to jobless numbers, but rather to unemployment insurance claims:

FoxNews today:

"The Labor Department said the total unemployment insurance rolls fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week ending June 6, the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline is a sign that layoffs are easing."

"The drop also breaks a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims, the last 19 of which were records. A dip in continuing claims several weeks ago was later revised higher."

"The four-week average of claims has dropped by about 40,000 from nearly 659,000 in early April, its peak for the current recession."

Even if you are talking about claim counts you are using last weeks data. Here is today's release for the week ending June 13h which shows initial claims are up. Continued claims are down but nothing should be read into that because people exhausting benefits are no longer in the continued claims count.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/18/news...ion=2009061809

[Riot]

Didn't you already cover this in some other thread, this week?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Riot

Didn't you already cover this in some other thread, this week?

Misuse of statistics is a pet peeve of mine.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Misuse of statistics is a pet peeve of mine.

Mine, too. You have better statistics.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Even if you are talking about claim counts you are using last weeks data. Here is today's release for the week ending June 13h which shows initial claims are up. Continued claims are down but nothing should be read into that because people exhausting benefits are no longer in the continued claims count.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/18/news...ion=2009061809

It is the biggest horse **** number ever. Everyone is looking for these "green shoots" and they are ending up chasing waterfalls.

when you have over 600k initial claims and rising every week, there are serious issues.

I really have to believe the Republicans dont
have to have much in the way of a candicdate
if the economy, after all of the fairly significant shifts Obama is trying,
does not recover or gets worse.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I really have to believe the Republicans dont
have to have much in the way of a candicdate
if the economy, after all of the fairly significant shifts Obama is trying,
does not recover or gets worse.

Bozo the Clown could win and he's dead. Dead for real!!! Think he'd be able to release a birth certificate and school records unlike OB and God. But dncing w/the sars or american idiot is on tonight hopefully.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I really have to believe the Republicans dont
have to have much in the way of a candicdate
if the economy, after all of the fairly significant shifts Obama is trying,
does not recover or gets worse.

I disagree. He can simply blame it on bush and spin out of the rest. If W got two terms, Obama can get two terms.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by gales0678

outside of being a talented speaker , how has obama shown he can lead a country let alone a 2 car funeral - i don't get it

We know ya don't get it. On this, you're simply unteachable. He blew away Hillary n' McCain with one of the best organized campaigns ever. People worked very hard for him. Now, somehow, in that brain of Gales, this is not registering as leadership. Hey, I underestimated his ability to get people to follow him(Gales, people follow leaders.) Somehow, he got more votes in Indiana(Bush won there by like 15 n' 20%.) That cost me 2k(in winnings...only $50 in money bet.) Gales, three hours after I made the bet, guess what happened. Seems Mr. Obama (who you say can't lead) somehow got Mr. Colin Powell to disagree with you on that. Guess what. Scuds boat was sunk in Indiana on that day. BTW, your only shot at beating OBAMA in 2012 is by somehow convincing this other guy(POWELL) to run. It's about those independent voters, and you're not gunna get them with a Bush, a Newt, or a Holy Roller Hockey Mom. Keep talking about what experience they've had running stuff. It doesn't matter. They will not vote for them. The rich Mormon that talks down to people? They ain't gunna vote for him. Look at who ya just tried to win with. You tried to win with an opposition leader. Other than Powell, that's pretty much all you've got(opposition leaders.) What is Jeb Bush? He's pretty much Bob Dole without the pencil in his hand. You keep ridin' that puppy. See where it gets ya.

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I disagree. He can simply blame it on bush and spin out of the rest. If W got two terms, Obama can get two terms.

I lived too long.
People have short term memories.

And the economic disaster mitigated by the
Bush people did not come until well into the second term.
The full effects that actually hurt people happened just at
the right time.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

We know ya don't get it. On this, you're simply unteachable. He blew away Hillary n' McCain with one of the best organized campaigns ever. People worked very hard for him. Now, somehow, in that brain of Gales, this is not registering as leadership. Hey, I underestimated his ability to get people to follow him(Gales, people follow leaders.) Somehow, he got more votes in Indiana(Bush won there by like 15 n' 20%.) That cost me 2k(in winnings...only $50 in money bet.) Gales, three hours after I made the bet, guess what happened. Seems Mr. Obama (who you say can't lead) somehow got Mr. Colin Powell to disagree with you on that. Guess what. Scuds boat was sunk in Indiana on that day. BTW, your only shot at beating OBAMA in 2012 is by somehow convincing this other guy(POWELL) to run. It's about those independant voters, and you're not gunna get them with a Bush, a Newt, or a Holy Roller Hockey Mom. Keep talking about what experience they've had running stuff. It doesn't matter. They will not vote for them. The rich Mormon that talks down to people? They ain't gunna vote for him. Look at who ya just tried to win with. You tried to win with an opposition leader. Other than Powell, that's pretty much all you've got(opposition leaders.) What is Jeb Bush? He's pretty much Bob Dole without the pencil in his hand. You keep ridin' that puppy. See where it gets ya.

Hey he's from Chicago! Enough said and I will admit he's cleaner than the average Chicago Bear. LOL But Rahm? Rove was a villain and at least was out there, where's the Rahm? Google him and Fannie May and unneeded bonus. Then tax washington dc house.

You're about as fair and balanced from what I've read me being one side and the former GOP Riot being the other and that's a compliment. Partial cause Physics was a fav, but that’s the rest of the story. Good Luck and hopefully I can handle any truth. Or head to AP this w/e

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I lived too long.
People have short term memories.

And the economic disaster mitigated by the
Bush people did not come until well into the second term.
The full effects that actually hurt people happened just at
the right time.

Bush barely got back into office for a second term. You can credit spin and a lack of a viable democratic opponent.

People arent going to simply vote Obama out. He is too charismatic. If he is going to lose, someone will have to beat him. There certainly isnt anyone around right now that could fit the bill. Of course, we do have three years.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Bush barely got back into office for a second term. You can credit spin and a lack of a viable democratic opponent.

People arent going to simply vote Obama out. He is too charismatic. If he is going to lose, someone will have to beat him. There certainly isnt anyone around right now that could fit the bill. Of course, we do have three years.

don't forget Bush I , looked like he was in good shape in the winter of '91 when the first gulf war eneded , i can't remember too many people at that point thinking he would NOT get re-elected....s**t happens

the southern rebels in va and unc will flip on obama in a NY minute if he don't produce jobs for them , ohio and indiana again will be toss ups and if jeb goes he's winning florida obama ain't going to beat him there