My theory and feelings on Polytrack

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Funny that this toe grab issue came up.. Dan Fick of Jockey Club was on the show tonight and one of the topics we covered was the Grayson Foundation call for toe grabs to be eliminated.. Here's Hegarty's piece on it from DRF and a report from Anvils magazine from a few years ago when the California study elaborated on the issue:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319949/

http://www.horseshoes.com/advice/alkane1/tgrbandi.htm

Good article, thank you.

[Swap Fliparoo]

My TB has good feet, and is always barefoot. We do some light jumping and showing; unless he walks on gravel he's fine.

I recall reading about toe grabs in the past; had never known they were correlated w/ breakdowns

Originally Posted by Swap Fliparoo

My TB has good feet, and is always barefoot. We do some light jumping and showing; unless he walks on gravel he's fine.

I recall reading about toe grabs in the past; had never known they were correlated w/ breakdowns

It primarily has to do with a horses stride and its bio-mechanics IMO....horse with a sloppy stride and bad break-over are the ones to logically have issues hitting the ground poorly and off balance - and toe grabs would only magnify that effect on many cases......A HORSE'S MECHANICS AND THE WAY THE HORSE IS SHOD ARE THE PRIMARY FACTORS TO PREVENTING UNSOUNDNESS (well, and good luck )....

[sumitas]

let's just keep moving this game ahead. polytrack is here to stay and more tracks will convert soon. the biggest issue for fans is the health and safety of the horses. face the facts.

Originally Posted by sumitas

let's just keep moving this game ahead. polytrack is here to stay and more tracks will convert soon. the biggest issue for fans is the health and safety of the horses. face the facts.

This is not the proper solution......I don't mean to digress

I own many horses and i have more interest than the fans in keeping them sound, and even I know Polytrack is hardly the firm answer relative to the concessions in other areas you have to make....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by chromer

Wish I had written this.

I'm trying to think of something to add but I think you nailed it so all I can say is...amen.

thanks chromer,
oh, and you too titan.

[Danzig]

[quote=Kasept]Funny that this toe grab issue came up.. Dan Fick of Jockey Club was on the show tonight and one of the topics we covered was the Grayson Foundation call for toe grabs to be eliminated.. Here's Hegarty's piece on it from DRF and a report from Anvils magazine from a few years ago when the California study elaborated on the issue:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319949/

http://www.horseshoes.com/advice/alkane1/tgrbandi.htm[/QUOTE

i saw an article about toe grabs and their evils a few weeks ago...makes you wonder why everyone doesn't do away with them...

also, about shoeing...what about glue on shoes? i know they've been used on some horses due to hoof problems, are they a viable alternative? i would think if you don't have anything to correct that you could just use those, right?

[paisjpq]

[quote=Danzig188]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Funny that this toe grab issue came up.. Dan Fick of Jockey Club was on the show tonight and one of the topics we covered was the Grayson Foundation call for toe grabs to be eliminated.. Here's Hegarty's piece on it from DRF and a report from Anvils magazine from a few years ago when the California study elaborated on the issue:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319949/

http://www.horseshoes.com/advice/alkane1/tgrbandi.htm[/QUOTE

i saw an article about toe grabs and their evils a few weeks ago...makes you wonder why everyone doesn't do away with them...

also, about shoeing...what about glue on shoes? i know they've been used on some horses due to hoof problems, are they a viable alternative? i would think if you don't have anything to correct that you could just use those, right?

the thing with glue ons is that they are very expensive it adds about $100 per pair to your shoeing bill (not that that should be a problem in the racing industry) the glue will alter the integrity of the hoof composition long-term (dry's it out big time).
One of my best friends is a farrier...he says: a glue-on shoe will not fully bond to the hoof wall for about 2 cycles...the glue takes all of the moisture out of the foot...after the first cycle you are left with a dried out 'shelly' crmbling hoof...until the foot is acclimated to the glue the foot is really a mess...if anything goes wrong and the glue ons are not working there is no viable hoof wall left to put a nail into...and you have to wait until the foot regraows (up to 9 months)
they are difficult to put on and remove...and if a horse happens to step on it and get it off they usually take of a significant portion of hoof wall with it...unless they are using 'Sigafoos' shoes that have a kevlar cuff that goes over the foot and does not detatch when the shoe falls off.

[Danzig]

so not a really good alternative....wonderful.

but see, if there was a winter break (rather than running on poly at turfway) you could pull their shoes off and let them romp.

yeah, like that's gonna happen.

[quote=Danzig188]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Funny that this toe grab issue came up.. Dan Fick of Jockey Club was on the show tonight and one of the topics we covered was the Grayson Foundation call for toe grabs to be eliminated.. Here's Hegarty's piece on it from DRF and a report from Anvils magazine from a few years ago when the California study elaborated on the issue:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319949/

http://www.horseshoes.com/advice/alkane1/tgrbandi.htm[/QUOTE

i saw an article about toe grabs and their evils a few weeks ago...makes you wonder why everyone doesn't do away with them...

also, about shoeing...what about glue on shoes? i know they've been used on some horses due to hoof problems, are they a viable alternative? i would think if you don't have anything to correct that you could just use those, right?

I like them for horses with bad feet, but they are VERY expensive and need to be changed frequently....they're not really economical for anything other than top allowance and stakes horses....

Joel,
Up here in the summer our local newspaper prints the previous days handle and shows what the running total to date is as compared to the prior years handle after the same number of days.
I predicted that Keeneland would show a bump early on handle then slow down later. Can you get any stats as to where they stand in regards to handle compared to the same number of racing days last year at the fall meet?
Calder just reported a 2% increase in handle without "polytrack" at their recently concluded 112 day meet, and Fresno out in California was reporting a 4% handle increase. Since this seems to be the trend in with tracks these days, I'd predict an overall handle increase at Keeneland to be within 2-4% at meets conclusion. Anything less than that will actually be interpreted as a negative sign in this corner.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Joel,
Up here in the summer our local newspaper prints the previous days handle and shows what the running total to date is as compared to the prior years handle after the same number of days.
I predicted that Keeneland would show a bump early on handle then slow down later. Can you get any stats as to where they stand in regards to handle compared to the same number of racing days last year at the fall meet?
Calder just reported a 2% increase in handle without "polytrack" at their recently concluded 112 day meet, and Fresno out in California was reporting a 4% handle increase. Since this seems to be the trend in with tracks these days, I'd predict an overall handle increase at Keeneland to be within 2-4% at meets conclusion. Anything less than that will actually be interpreted as a negative sign in this corner.

The one thing to consider about Calder though was that they had their Festival of the Sun card last weekend and had a good handle day with all of teh stakes on the card and good weather.....I like your logic, Mike, and I think it'll play out that way....I really do because I know I won't bet Keeneland now as much as I used to hammer it.....I just won't, and I know other advanced handicappers will find an alternative too beore they give the edge they've created over the general public over the years back.....we've worked too hard to acquire a better understanding of how to play the races over teh yaesr to play on a level playingfield with casual fans - and that is exactly what Polytrack does...

I would almost lay the odds at '"pick 'em" in a handicapping contest at Keeneland with a lady spending her second day ever at a racetrack who doesn't even know how to read a program.....she seriously has as much chance as I do of making money runnng over that crap....

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Joel,
Up here in the summer our local newspaper prints the previous days handle and shows what the running total to date is as compared to the prior years handle after the same number of days.
I predicted that Keeneland would show a bump early on handle then slow down later. Can you get any stats as to where they stand in regards to handle compared to the same number of racing days last year at the fall meet?
Calder just reported a 2% increase in handle without "polytrack" at their recently concluded 112 day meet, and Fresno out in California was reporting a 4% handle increase. Since this seems to be the trend in with tracks these days, I'd predict an overall handle increase at Keeneland to be within 2-4% at meets conclusion. Anything less than that will actually be interpreted as a negative sign in this corner.

I have no clue what their handle was last year but it you download the full charts on equibase it gives you the full handle for each individual day at the end. Keeneland and Belmont are fairly close in overall handle most days. Not sure how they compared last year.

[JJP]

I think there's some definite positives and negatives re: Polytrack to us bettors. Lets look past the breakdown stuff, and kickback and look at it strictly as bettors:

Any time something new occurs, the better horsebettors adapt quickly. For instance, I believe KY didn't have any turf racing until 20 years ago (or thereabouts). Those able to adapt profited. It also brings up a whole new dynamic or how trainers treat surface switches to/from the artificial surface.

But there could be major negatives if the Polytrack is too widespread. I believe California reacted way too quickly to mandate every major track to install an artificial surface. The game is still about speed, as well it should be. The last thing we want is the majority of tracks to go to artificial surfaces. A few of them as a novelty is good but hopefully the Polytrack/Cushiontrack folks don't run the game in a few years.

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

You have to compare apples to apples. If I recall correctly, in terms of handle, Keeneland's fall meet has been on a decline since '03 or '04 (too short on time to look it up, right now). So, unless Calder and Fresno had similar trends (ie decline starting in 03 or 04 then a sudden boost in 06), such a comparison would be meaningless...if we're truly trying to be objective, that is, which is not always the case here.

The Lexington Herald compares each day's handle against the same day last year, but I haven't seen a meet-to-date vs prior meet-to-date comparison. And I don't have the time or inclination to pull all the numbers and do the math!

So because they had declines in '03 and '04 it's meaningless to compare Keeneland to Fresno and Calder? WHAT?

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

You have to compare apples to apples. If I recall correctly, in terms of handle, Keeneland's fall meet has been on a decline since '03 or '04 (too short on time to look it up, right now). So, unless Calder and Fresno had similar trends (ie decline starting in 03 or 04 then a sudden boost in 06), such a comparison would be meaningless...if we're truly trying to be objective, that is, which is not always the case here.

The Lexington Herald compares each day's handle against the same day last year, but I haven't seen a meet-to-date vs prior meet-to-date comparison. And I don't have the time or inclination to pull all the numbers and do the math!

I'm sorry but thats illogical statistically.
You haveto factor in the trends in racing as well as a whole. Lots of tracks had declines in 03 and 04.
Its much more accurate to compare it to the trends with all tracks especially since simulcast money comes in form all over the world and is far greater than on track hanlde at ANY track. The local ecomony of a racetrack area is not a significant factor when comparing all sources handle.
How do you ignore the trends at other tracks when making a comparison?

[The Bid]

Is Keenelands handle up or down. I know I havent touched Keeneland, but for maybe 3 races and Im good for 25 thousand during the meet. I sit with a few guys who make me look like a 2 dollar bettor and they won touch it either. Im very curious if they are losing the real players yet. Who cares about the young college kids all kicking in 3 bucks in a pick 6. Losing the real sophisticated whales is going to hurt, and I see that happening.

Originally Posted by The Bid

Is Keenelands handle up or down. I know I havent touched Keeneland, but for maybe 3 races and Im good for 25 thousand during the meet. I sit with a few guys who make me look like a 2 dollar bettor and they won touch it either. Im very curious if they are losing the real players yet. Who cares about the young college kids all kicking in 3 bucks in a pick 6. Losing the real sophisticated whales is going to hurt, and I see that happening.

I am jabbing subtly at the poly shills Bid, because I believe that if it was up we would have read about it, they sure were in a hurry after opening weekend to say that, silence since then. And you know what that means.

[The Bid]

I agree with you. I think the real serious players, guys who have a clue and put up big dollars have decided to switch tracks. I bet Belmont's handle will be up, but I really dont think Keeneland's will. Not only is Keeneland's bias unreal, the best horses simply arent winning races. If you cant be rewarded for being sharp, knowing which horse is the best, why play? Like I said Im good for 25 a meet, the guys I get down with are good for 20k a day. They have swung that money over to Belmont, as have I. Im sure there are other guys who bet a lot of money doing the same thing, who can blame them?

Originally Posted by The Bid

I agree with you. I think the real serious players, guys who have a clue and put up big dollars have decided to switch tracks. I bet Belmont's handle will be up, but I really dont think Keeneland's will. Not only is Keeneland's bias unreal, the best horses simply arent winning races. If you cant be rewarded for being sharp, knowing which horse is the best, why play? Like I said Im good for 25 a meet, the guys I get down with are good for 20k a day. They have swung that money over to Belmont, as have I. Im sure there are other guys who bet a lot of money doing the same thing, who can blame them?

Thats interesting, I bet Belmont's handle goes up this meet.