2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by jms62

Sorry about that

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

You're a trip handicapper now....in addition to becoming a sudden fanboy?

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Well, you're half right, at least as far as my post-Belmont response. I can't remember ever going back to dig up ridiculous posts and quoting them when they've been proven wrong (or at least highly dubious), but I may make an exception in this case. That's how over-the-top I think the accolades have been for a horse that to me has shown no more quality than Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome had at the same stages of their careers. (I won't put Silver Charm in that list because SC won his KD and Preakness against 2-3 other horses with BSF's in the 115 range, and was more impressive, IMO.)

But if AP wins the Belmont, I can't think of a scenario that would keep me from joining the worshippers, short of some truly calamitous event that wipes out most of the competition. I won't care if AP has the most perfect of perfect trips/setups--if he can get 1.5 miles on top of everything else he's done and beat these more-rested horsess, then he's truly worthy in my book.

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

I can see it already, all over the blogs and various media. If he loses, it will be Victor's fault: got left at the gate, he went too fast early, moved too soon, moved too late, got boxed in, lost ground because he raced too wide......

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

Let's just reveal the elephant in the room:

Materiality has the talent, and most importantly, the early speed, to hinder American Pharoah's bid to stay 12 furlongs.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is really good.

No, it's really not.

It's completely backwards.

You should try your hand at stand up comedy.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by freddymo

People look for the most logical horse because its been an impossible task to conquer and so it makes sense to bet anyone but the favorite, which frankly has been a good strategy for 40 years. Just not this year.

Guess we will know in a few weeks...
I've gotten my hopes up a few times over the years since affirmed. Been wrong every time...and then there's the particular memory of a certain charcoal grey horse who was one hell of a horse...and failed.
I'll believe it when/if it happens, but not one moment before.
If that makes me a hater, than I question who is setting the bar...

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

Semantics, Rollo. He pressed a still maiden in the slop in his maiden breaker, pressed a confirmed quitter in the Islamorada, and pressed an average Bluegrass Singer before dueling with Upstart, who would later just quit in Kentucky.

Frosted's off the pace effort in the Kentucky Derby was clearly better than Materiality's off the pace effort, and if his saving grace, "pressing" AP, is what folks are holding out hope for - well, you can see the what he was up against when successful doing so in the past.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No, it's really not.

It's completely backwards.

You should try your hand at stand up comedy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Semantics, Rollo. He pressed a still maiden in the slop in his maiden breaker, pressed a confirmed quitter in the Islamorada, and pressed an average Bluegrass Singer before dueling with Upstart, who would later just quit in Kentucky.

Frosted's off the pace effort in the Kentucky Derby was clearly better than Materiality's off the pace effort, and if his saving grace, "pressing" AP, is what folks are holding out hope for - well, you can see the what he was up against when successful doing so in the past.

"Clearly better" usually means more than one out of ten people that know anything about watching races would agree with you. I would have trouble finding one out of 100 that actually think Frosted's Derby effort was "clearly better" than the effort of Materiality.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'll explain.

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'll explain.

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

That didn't help. Sorry, I think you are reaching here.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

Lots of tilting at windmills. Since the running of the Preakness, in both this thread and the "American Pharaoh with authority" thread there was at best a couple of comments about Dortmund being held back and Tale Of the Verve running second that might qualify as "detracting" from American Pharoah's Preakness performance. Otherwise, what we have been treated to is some paranoid ramblings about American Pharaoh's vulnerability to internet criticism, a rather oddly placed attack on D. Wayne Lukas (as if any number of other trainers, including American Pharoah's, couldn't be cast in the same light), and Freddy's weird appropriation of American Pharaoh for his beloved Phipps stable (sorry, dude, I know hopes were high with Orb).

Sadly, the only thing remotely related to actual events in horse racing in either thread is whether Materiality can rate or not.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

"Clearly better" usually means more than one out of ten people that know anything about watching races would agree with you. I would have trouble finding one out of 100 that actually think Frosted's Derby effort was "clearly better" than the effort of Materiality.

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

What were you up to between the 1/2 mile pole and the 1/4 pole during the Kentucky Derby?

Couldn't have possibly have been watching the race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

I'm not certain we've watched the same race if you're characterizing Materiality's trip as clean. And I'm putting that VERY delicately.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Let's just reveal the elephant in the room:

Materiality has the talent, and most importantly, the early speed, to hinder American Pharoah's bid to stay 12 furlongs.

You sure Materiality can rate? Seems to me the same argument suggesting AP hadnt proven he could rate sitting second to a running away speedball in Ark Derby would apply to any convincing argument Materiality can rate. If being out gunned by Stanford is proof he can rate then I guess he could effect AP but nobody should be convinced he can rate and be effective and we know AP can rate and finish. Seems to me all you have to do is follow Materiality until he is spent.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further.

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

This isn't what happened, but I'm not arguing this with you. It's not clear who ran the better race. Most people I respect believe it was Materiality, which doesn't mean that others don't believe it was Frosted that ran the better race. I'm always open to that discussion, and there has to be a certain amount of subjectivity, as it can't be clearly established one way or another.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What were you up to between the 1/2 mile pole and the 1/4 pole during the Kentucky Derby?

Couldn't have possibly have been watching the race.

He wasn't watching the start either.