2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[Calzone Lord]

Anyone looking to re-live the greatness that is Super Saver and Mine That Bird:


* Super Saver makes the lead and fades in a weak Tampa Bay Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnmLRCgB550


* Line of David outgames Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5sf7UmQTus



* Mine That Bird storms to the lead at the 1/4 pole in the Sunland Derby and fades badly in the stretch run to finish 4th.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TwhwKe3YGY

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Running styles can change.

Mine That Bird and Super Saver both had been pressing paces and fading sharper through the stretch with the exact same running style as Secret Circle. They basically had the exact same running style as Secret Circle, but both were wildly inferior horses.

Borel simply took both of them way back and made one late run.

The good horses in Secret Circle's family are all deep closing routers.

If they do run him in the Kentucky Derby, they should take him well off the pace. On speed figures, he fits with every horse in the race not named Bodemeister. On Ragozin's he's probably the second fastest horse in this race... and his Arkansas Derby was better than older males in the OP Handicap because of weight and ground loss.

Liason has no chance of getting anything.

Didn't he bear out sharply in the stretch?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Didn't he bear out sharply in the stretch?

Yes.

He should be freshened for the summer. He's already run in four Graded Stakes routes since the Breeders Cup.

If Baffert does run him in the Derby -- he had better change his running style. He's going to run mid-pack at absolute best if the goal is to take him as wide as possible and stalk from up close.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes.

He should be freshened for the summer. He's already run in four Graded Stakes routes since the Breeders Cup.

If Baffert does run him in the Derby -- he had better change his running style. He's going to run mid-pack at absolute best if the goal is to take him as wide as possible and stalk from up close.

The question is can he change his running style in 3 weeks? They will have 2 works at best? Doesn't "bearing out" indicate exhaustion or some sort of physical issue?

I totally agree with the summer freshening idea. Same old story...why ruin a nice horse? (see Trinniberg connections)

[Calzone Lord]

It will be interesting to see what Borel tries to do with Take Charge Indy.

Even though he went wire-to-wire in the Fla Derby last time out, I wouldn't be surprised if he attempts to take him way back.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It will be interesting to see what Borel tries to do with Take Charge Indy.

Even though he went wire-to-wire in the Fla Derby last time out, I wouldn't be surprised if he attempts to take him way back.

I have no doubt he will be running late. Hes going back. Coming into the Derby this is clearly Borels best shot since Street Sense.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by asudevil

The question is can he change his running style in 3 weeks? They will have 2 works at best? Doesn't "bearing out" indicate exhaustion or some sort of physical issue?

I totally agree with the summer freshening idea. Same old story...why ruin a nice horse? (see Trinniberg connections)

Secret Circle has been one of my favorite horses since his debut at Del Mar. Baffert has been my favorite forever.... Secret Circle needs a break and a cutback. Why not the Met?

[RolloTomasi]

Secret Circle has bore out in 4 of his last 5 starts.

[Sightseek]

As a fan, it's hard not to hope that a Secret Circle, Creative Cause, or Hansen wins the Derby rather than a Gemologist or Went the Day Well.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

As a fan, it's hard not to hope that a Secret Circle, Creative Cause, or Hansen wins the Derby rather than a Gemologist or Went the Day Well.

I don't get it.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't get it.

Their campaigns closer resemble something we would have seen a few years ago, not the new trend of "fresh horse," two-prep campaign.

Creative Cause -- 5 starts as a 2 year old, 3 stakes start preps

Secret Circle -- 3 / 4

Hansen -- 3 / 3

I wasn't speaking in terms of relative talent.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Their campaigns closer resemble something we would have seen a few years ago, not the new trend of "fresh horse," two-prep campaign.

Creative Cause -- 5 starts as a 2 year old, 3 stakes start preps

Secret Circle -- 3 / 4

Hansen -- 3 / 3

I wasn't speaking in terms of relative talent.

Ah, I see, I thought of that a bit. I guess Went the Day Well gets a slight pass from me because of the purchase and that stuff. Gemologist's 3YO "campaign" is a tad annoying as well.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

As a fan, it's hard not to hope that a Secret Circle, Creative Cause, or Hansen wins the Derby rather than a Gemologist or Went the Day Well.

Who cares about that stuff?

I want to know what your derby hat ratings are for the derby hat thread in Esoteric that Calzone started.

[Kasept]

Darren Rogers tweets that Hollendorfer reports Rousing Sermon only possible for Derby with decision coming by end of week..

Would move Reveron into body of field..

[Kasept]

ANTICIPATED LEXINGTON FIELD

All Squared Away (Miller)
Gold Megillah (Motion)
Golden Ticket (McPeek)
Hammers Terror (Stidham)
Holiday Promise (Pletcher)
Johannesbourbon (Gorder)
Morgan’s Guerilla (Maker)
News Pending (Romans)
Stirred Up (Baffert)
Summer Front (Clement)

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Darren Rogers tweets that Hollendorfer reports Rousing Sermon only possible for Derby with decision coming by end of week..

I spoke to him after the La. Derby as I was helping out the press team down there and he readily admitted how he was torn. He thought the horse needed a confidence booster, and he also believes the horse will run far. I took that to mean whether or not to skip the Derby and point for the Belmont, with a prep in between.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Their campaigns closer resemble something we would have seen a few years ago, not the new trend of "fresh horse," two-prep campaign.

Creative Cause -- 5 starts as a 2 year old, 3 stakes start preps

Secret Circle -- 3 / 4

Hansen -- 3 / 3

I wasn't speaking in terms of relative talent.

I like this thinking but Hansen's owner really irritates me.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

ANTICIPATED LEXINGTON FIELD

All Squared Away (Miller)
Gold Megillah (Motion)
Golden Ticket (McPeek)
Hammers Terror (Stidham)
Holiday Promise (Pletcher)
Johannesbourbon (Gorder)
Morgan’s Guerilla (Maker)
News Pending (Romans)
Stirred Up (Baffert)
Summer Front (Clement)

Add Castaway (Baffert) to the Lex probs..

Castaway ($162,000) and Morgan's Guerilla ($100,000) would be right on cusp of making Derby field with $120,000 winner's share..

[blackthroatedwind]

Castaway would be a fine addition to the Derby field.

It could be quite a dogfight for 20th.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Castaway would be a fine addition to the Derby field.

It could be quite a dogfight for 20th.

He'd have to win to get in, which is a longshot to happen, even against those killers.