Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Grits

Dunbar, that would be great, and you have Randall's permission via myself. And I certainly would not tell you this if he felt otherwise. I promise you.

We're almost done too. Not many more races.

Okay, Grits, will do. I'll post the results using Randall's format.

--Dunbar

[Grits]

Thank you sweetheart. I appreciate it so!

I still may well be buying him his beverage of choice when we meet in Saratoga.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Okay, burdened with the heavy responsibility of carrying this study forward, I felt I ought to re-read the thread. ;>)

Now I'm curious about what btwind meant by the part I highlighted above. Does the fact that the place payout is given in two pieces somehow overcome the fact that the exacta has a generally bigger takeout?

A dart thrower at Keenland is going to lose 16% plus breakage making place bets. His dart-throwing pal is going to lose 19% plus breakage betting exactas. It's not jumping out at me why the exactas have any mathematical edge. I'm asking because I may be missing something fundamental.

--Dunbar

[Grits]

Today, I believe Blackthroatedwind indicated he was traveling south of NY to Camden Yards and an afternoon of baseball. When he returns, he can clarify. If he misses your question, maybe send him a pm. He can clear it up I'm sure.

[Dunbar]

Nice day for the Exactas!

Day 29 (No dark days included) April 11, 2007
Carryover differential: PLACE BETTING +$72.20

AQ: Race2-- PL 7.60 EX 19.60
AQ: Race3-- PL 8.40 EX 35.40
AQ: Race5-- PL 13.00
AQ: Race8-- PL 16.60
KE: Race4-- PL 16.20 EX 97.40
KE: Race5-- PL 10.00
KE: Race5-- PL 13.20
KE: Race6-- PL 29.40 EX 98.00
KE: Race7-- PL 12.00
SA: Race3-- PL 13.60 EX 84.20
SA: Race4-- PL 11.80
SA: Race5-- PL 23.20
SA: Race7-- PL 15.80



Today's races: EX $334.60, PL $190.80
Today's differential: EX +$143.80

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3413.60, PL $3342.00
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$71.60

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (221) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 69 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--656

I've tried to keep it in Randall's format, but I've added a daily total. And when two 10-1 horses finish 1st and 2nd, as in Keenland Race 5, I am putting them on separate lines.

--Dunbar

Edited to make btwind's correction. (see below).

[blackthroatedwind]

You credited the 8th at Aqueduct as an exacta win and it wasn't as I believe the Frankel horse was the favorite.

[Grits]

Dunbar, this was a great day for exacta and place amounts.

You've done a fine job, thank you so much for taking over.

I will owe you as well.

[Dunbar]

You're welcome, Grits. Glad to do it.

Looks like it will be over in just a few days.

--Dunbar

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You credited the 8th at Aqueduct as an exacta win and it wasn't as I believe the Frankel horse was the favorite.

you are correct, the winner was the 2nd choice

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You credited the 8th at Aqueduct as an exacta win and it wasn't as I believe the Frankel horse was the favorite.

I didn't see your post when I replied to Grits. Thanks for catching the mistake!

I'll correct it by editing the original post.

--Dunbar

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I didn't see your post when I replied to Grits. Thanks for catching the mistake!

I'll correct it by editing the original post.

--Dunbar

Wouldn't you know it, last night, it the first . . . that I have not gone and checked results of all three tracks. Too tired.

Anyway, thankk you D.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Grits

Wouldn't you know it, last night, it the first . . . that I have not gone and checked results of all three tracks. Too tired.

Anyway, thankk you D.

It was a rookie mistake I made, Grits. Glad BTWind was looking over my shoulder. If I can just train myself to look for that asterisk in the equibase chart, I should be okay going forward!

I'm actually rooting for Place in this showdown, so it's funny I'd blow it in the other direction.

One thing seems clear to me at this point. 250 place bets isn't enough to resolve the issue on which is the better strategy with any sort of statistical certainty. (Though it's of course enough to resolve any bet you and randall may have made!) We are getting daily differences that are twice as big as the overall difference. At this point we are waiting for the head bob to see which will win.

It looks as if the first 250 bets will be finished in about 5 weeks from the start. If no one objects, I will continue until a total of 500 place bets have been made. But we'll go ahead and announce the 250-bet winner when that occurs.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It was a rookie mistake I made, Grits. Glad BTWind was looking over my shoulder. If I can just train myself to look for that asterisk in the equibase chart, I should be okay going forward!

I'm actually rooting for Place in this showdown, so it's funny I'd blow it in the other direction.

One thing seems clear to me at this point. 250 place bets isn't enough to resolve the issue on which is the better strategy with any sort of statistical certainty. (Though it's of course enough to resolve any bet you and randall may have made!) We are getting daily differences that are twice as big as the overall difference. At this point we are waiting for the head bob to see which will win.

It looks as if the first 250 bets will be finished in about 5 weeks from the start. If no one objects, I will continue until a total of 500 place bets have been made. But we'll go ahead and announce the 250-bet winner when that occurs.

--Dunbar

The reality is that the exacta is mathematically the right bet and an aberational result that showed place bets " winning " would be deceptive and unfortunate.

I agree about the relatively small sample size, and always felt all you needed to do was look over six months of past results, but the contest was created for whatever reasons in this manner. Regardless, it's been fun.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The reality is that the exacta is mathematically the right bet and an aberational result that showed place bets " winning " would be deceptive and unfortunate.

I agree about the relatively small sample size, and always felt all you needed to do was look over six months of past results, but the contest was created for whatever reasons in this manner. Regardless, it's been fun.

Can you elaborate on why you feel "the exacta is mathematically the right bet"? There's something I'm missing with that, and I want to understand it.

I rarely make a place bets, and I even more rarely make "saver" exacta bets, but I just want to understand what you're talking about.

--Dunbar

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Can you elaborate on why you feel "the exacta is mathematically the right bet"? There's something I'm missing with that, and I want to understand it.

I rarely make a place bets, and I even more rarely make "saver" exacta bets, but I just want to understand what you're talking about.

--Dunbar

Not speaking for BTW...
My view is that the exacta bet sould hit about a third of the time when the other horse runs second....if the average exacta payouts are more than 3 times the other horses place payout then the exacta will have a better ROI.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

So, you're saying that even when the pools are "efficient", there is a built-in mathematical edge to the exacta pool? (at least as far as the 2 bets we are comparing)

Or are you saying that people systematically bet in such a way that the exacta pool is better as far as these 2 bets are concerned?

I'm working on an example, but I'll probably have to assume the pool is "efficient" for it to be at all general.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Maybe I'm (slowly) catching on. I believe it's related to the concept of why it's better to use a free play on a long-odds bet, like roulette, even if the odds on that bet are worse than the odds on some even money bets like craps or blackjack.

Not sure it's the same, though.

more later...

--Dunbar

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

Could you elaborate a little bit...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Maybe I'm (slowly) catching on. I believe it's related to the concept of why it's better to use a free play on a long-odds bet, like roulette, even if the odds on that bet are worse than the odds on some even money bets like craps or blackjack.

Not sure it's the same, though.

more later...

--Dunbar

Still thinking outloud...and thinking the above comparison is nonsense.

In the test, we are betting the same amount of money on place bets and on exacta bets. The place bets will lose at a rate of 16% on average and the exacta bets will lose at a rate of 19% on average. (Keenland, say). Breakage will hurt the place bets relatively more than the exacta bets, but not enough to make up for the diff in takeout.

I'll try to come up with a concrete example. As I said, I almost never make place bets, so it's alien terrain.

--Dunbar