Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Still thinking outloud...and thinking the above comparison is nonsense.

In the test, we are betting the same amount of money on place bets and on exacta bets. The place bets will lose at a rate of 16% on average and the exacta bets will lose at a rate of 19% on average. (Keenland, say). Breakage will hurt the place bets relatively more than the exacta bets, but not enough to make up for the diff in takeout.

I'll try to come up with a concrete example. As I said, I almost never make place bets, so it's alien terrain.

--Dunbar

Not sure where you are coming up with these percentages???
Anytime that you get one of these exactas there will also be a place payout...in other words for the conditions of the study you should be cashing about 3 times as many place wagers as exacta wagers...but if your average place payout is not at least 33% of your average exacta payout then the place wagers will have a lower ROI than the exacta wagers...

obviously takeout effects payout and exacta takeout is higher than place takeout...also obviously the place pool gets split between the top two horses....however I'm not sure how mathmatics and takeout explain the advantage of the exacta wager...
that is why I am looking for btw to elaborate...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Not sure where you are coming up with these percentages???
Anytime that you get one of these exactas there will also be a place payout...in other words for the conditions of the study you should be cashing about 3 times as many place wagers as exacta wagers...but if your average place payout is not at least 33% of your average exacta payout then the place wagers will have a lower ROI than the exacta wagers...

obviously takeout effects payout and exacta takeout is higher than place takeout...also obviously the place pool gets split between the top two horses....however I'm not sure how mathmatics and takeout explain the advantage of the exacta wager...
that is why I am looking for btw to elaborate...

The percentages I quoted were the takeout at Keenland. I'm not quoting them to support BTWind's position. I'm quoting them to question BTWind's position.

I'm looking at these racing bets the same way I would look at any bet: And we are ignoring handicaping skill, because that hasn't been part of the assumptions from the get go. Therefore...

If you make 50 $2 bets into the place pool, you are on average going to lose $16 at Keenland. (plus a little breakage). The $16 is the track take for WPS.

If your twin makes 50 $2 bets into the exacta pool, your twin will lose on average $19 at Keenland. (plus a little breakage). The $19 is the track take for exacta pools.

It's not as if we think the kind of bets being made in the "Contest" were better or worse than the average place bet or exacta bet. Therefore, I don't see why the track take isn't the key figure.

If you or BTWind can find fault with those numbers, I'm all ears. But please be careful to not introduce any additional assumptions.

BTWind usually knows what he's talking about. So I won't be completely shocked if I'm missing something fundamental. But it seems pretty straightforward to me.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Day 30 (No dark days included) April 12, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$71.60

(AQ cancelled after 2)

KE: Race1-- PL 23.00
KE: Race2-- PL 6.60 EX 38.40
KE: Race3-- PL 16.80
KE: Race7-- PL 9.40



Today's races: EX $38.40, PL $55.80
Today's differential: PL +$17.40

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3452.00, PL $3397.80
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$54.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (225) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 70 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--675

It tightens up a bit, assuming I didn't make a mistake!.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Day 31 (No dark days included) April 13, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$54.20

AQ,KE,SA

KE: Race1-- PL 26.80
KE: Race7-- PL 7.80 EX 55.80
KE: Race8-- PL 15.60
KE: Race10-- PL 20.20
SA: Race1-- PL 6.60 EX 18.20
SA: Race2-- PL 7.80



Today's races: EX $74.00, PL $84.80
Today's differential: PL +$10.80

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3526.00, PL $3482.60
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$43.40

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (231) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 72 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--702


--Dunbar

[Grits]

Dunbar, thank you for posting!!

Good luck if you're playing today. I think we'll have a lot of rain here in Lexington today.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Grits

Dunbar, thank you for posting!!

Good luck if you're playing today. I think we'll have a lot of rain here in Lexington today.

Grits, can you believe how close the "contest" is, after 702 races and 231 place bets?! Amazing.

Thanks for the weather report. It looks like the weather will be decent at Oaklawn.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

And down the stretch the come!

Day 32 (No dark days included) April 14, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$43.40

AQ,KE,SA

AQ: Race1-- PL 9.20
AQ: Race3-- PL 12.20
AQ: Race7-- PL 37.40
AQ: Race8-- PL 13.60
AQ: Race9-- PL 9.90
KE: Race2-- PL 13.40
KE: Race7-- PL 16.80
KE: Race8-- PL 11.80
SA: Race3-- PL 9.00
SA: Race5-- PL 9.60
SA: Race6-- PL 13.00
SA: Race8-- PL 11.40 EX 39.80



Today's races: EX $39.80, PL $167.30
Today's differential: PL +$127.50

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3565.80, PL $3649.90
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: PL +$84.10

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (243) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 73 (30%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--730

Place surges back into the lead, but it will all come down to the last day, which may be today, even with AQ cancelling.

I assume that the intent is to stop the original Contest exactly at 250 place bets. If there are more than 7 place bets today, I'll only count the first 7 (according to post time) in deciding who the winner is. If by some bit of statistical cruelty there are 2 qualifying place bets in the race where just 1 would get us to 250, I'll only count the winner's place payoff. (If randall and Grits agree on a different procedure, I'll do whatever they agree on.)

Also, as I said before, I'll keep the record going for another 250 place bets, until a total of 500 have been run. But the first 250 will decide Randall and Grit's bet.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's just mathematics and takeout dispersal.

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Could you elaborate a little bit...

Dave, the lack of response to your post and at least 2 similar requests of mine suggest one of two things:

1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or
2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!)

If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility.

I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right.

--Dunbar

[Antitrust32]

Grits hit the ultimate exacta today early at Keeneland. She should be ahead now with not very many to go..

[Dunbar]

Monster hit by Exactas in the 1st at Keenland!

Day 33 (No dark days included) April 15, 2007
Carryover differential: PLACE BETTING +$84.10

KE,SA (AQ cancelled)

KE: Race1-- PL 21.60 EX 223.60
KE: Race8-- PL 10.00
KE: Race8-- PL 14.80
SA: Race5-- PL 12.60



Today's races: EX $223.60, PL $59.00
Today's differential: EX +$164.60

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3789.40, PL $3708.90
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$80.50

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (247) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 74 (30%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--748

Exacta takes what looks like an insurmountable lead ($80.50) with 3 place bets left to go.

--Dunbar

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Grits hit the ultimate exacta today early at Keeneland. She should be ahead now with not very many to go..

Anti, you're right that $223.60 exacta was sweet.

[jman5581]

neither of these strategies has really proven to me that one is far superior to the other.

I would be more inclined to play the Place strategy with larger wagers and the exacta with a smaller amount. Just based on the odds of coming up with a place vs. coming up with an exacta and the practical bankroll considerations.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Dave, the lack of response to your post and at least 2 similar requests of mine suggest one of two things:

1. BTWind is wrong about the mathematics, or
2. BTWind is right, but the concept is subtle enough that there is profit to be made from the betting public's misunderstanding of it, and he wishes to keep that edge to himself. (Nothing wrong with that!)

If it were almost anyone else here, I'd lean very heavily toward #1. But I respect BTWind enough to consider #2 a possibility.

I'm still working on an example that I hope will illustrate that at least in "efficient" pools, the place bet has to be better than the exacta bet for the type of comparison in this contest. Until I do that, I'm open to the possibility that BTWind could be right.

--Dunbar

Nah, I just haven't really wrapped myself around it enough, or summoned the energy, to give a good response. I will.

[Antitrust32]

I bet grits wins the bottle of scotch, anyone want to bet against?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I bet grits wins the bottle of scotch, anyone want to bet against?

The contest ended after the 4th at Aqueduct and three above 10-1 horses ran first or second. The exacta won by a minor amount.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The contest ended after the 4th at Aqueduct and three above 10-1 horses ran first or second. The exacta won by a minor amount.

Yes, the first race was a nice exacta hit, if it wasnt for that, it would have been REAL close, especially with that $108 horse in the 4th

[Antitrust32]

I look forward to examining the next 250 place payouts Dunbar tracks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Yes, the first race was a nice exacta hit, if it wasnt for that, it would have been REAL close, especially with that $108 horse in the 4th

This is an absurd mentality. What does " if " mean? If some of those ridiculous big priced horses at Gulfstream hadn't won, or had run second to the favorite, the exacta would have been substantially higher. " IF " is absurd to use.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is an absurd mentality. What does " if " mean? If some of those ridiculous big priced horses at Gulfstream hadn't won, or had run second to the favorite, the exacta would have been substantially higher. " IF " is absurd to use.

I agree that I thought the exacta pool would win by much more, and Gulfstream was pretty much out of the ordinary for awhile there. It will be interesting to see what the next 250 results are.

Just pointing out how close of a race it was and evaluating the final strides...

[blackthroatedwind]

There is no need to wait for future results. You can just as easily use past results.

The reason the exacta is better is for a variety of reasons. One, the breakage hurts the place payoffs enough to raise the takeout to at least a couple points higher than the 15 or 16%. Another is that favorites are overbet in place pools for the most part and as they finish first or second around 50% of the time they will artificially deflate place payoffs on the other horse. But, the biggest reason is that with exactas you are effectively making a parlay of two different results, one horse to win and another to place, with a takout of roughly 20%. It's not wholly dissimilar to making a football parlay on the point spread AND the over/under while only paying the vig for one bet. So, even though the exacta takout is, say, 20% vs. 15% for place, you are effectively ( though not exactly ) lowering it to 10% on each outcome. Now, when you add on the actual increase that breakage brings to the place takeout you have a substantially better mathematical proposition.

The truth of this contest is that an aberational result which caused place bets to appear the better bet would have sent a TERRIBLE message to people. This idea that place betting is a sound strategy is flat out wrong and yet another reason people have trouble making money betting horses. The idea is to find ways to maximize one's profits or returns. Place and show betting, simply put, minimizes returns. Place and show bettors are suckers and losers at the windows.