5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by moses

As someone who bet Mo Donegal, I keep wondering - would Mo Donegal have won if Sonny Leon was riding him instead of Irad? At one point in time, those two horses were basically at the same spot on the track. They took different approaches/routes and we see what happened. Not sure Irad really gave him a shot to win.

I’m still in shock from that race.

Reverse is true too. Rich Strike also doesn't win with Irad riding him.

[OldDog]

BloodHorse reports that Rich Strike is the first Derby winner to have been claimed. Has any Derby winner ever come into the race off AE status?

[Dahoss]

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

Yeah and you can't fault the ride on Zandon. You make the decision to be close to the pace before the race and are already committed when the insane fractions are registered.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by jms62

Yeah and you can't fault the ride on Zandon. You make the decision to be close to the pace before the race and are already committed when the insane fractions are registered.

I thought the strategy was fine. They needed to be closer to epicenter if they had a chance to beat him. Unfortunately pace got moving faster than expected.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Yeah and you can't fault the ride on Zandon. You make the decision to be close to the pace before the race and are already committed when the insane fractions are registered.

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I thought the strategy was fine. They needed to be closer to epicenter if they had a chance to beat him. Unfortunately pace got moving faster than expected.

He finished less than a length behind Epicenter so it wasn’t a terrible strategy. But…and this is with hindsight obviously…but the race certainly looked like it would have a pretty strong early pace.

But again, hindsight. And who knows if he runs into any trouble if he sits further back.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

Yeah and you can't fault the ride on Zandon. You make the decision to be close to the pace before the race and are already committed when the insane fractions are registered.

Agreed, they had a plan and followed it. In retrospect, I think if they were not committed to being closer, than they probably win.

Then again, without the crazy early pace Epicenter probably wins by open lengths.

[Dahoss]

Also, anyone faulting Irad should watch the overhead view NBC had. He could not have followed the eventual winner.

Credit due to Sonny Leon. He rode a flawless Derby. You really see how brilliant it was on the overhead view.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

I thought Zozos ran really well also. 30 grand becomes 5 million in 9 months for the connections, somebody hit the horsey lottery.

[Konk]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Also, anyone faulting Irad should watch the overhead view NBC had. He could not have followed the eventual winner.

Credit due to Sonny Leon. He rode a flawless Derby. You really see how brilliant it was on the overhead view.

That overhead view should be required for any major track.
There is no excuse not to use the best modern technology.

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660

[Alabama Stakes]

I was surprised that Mo Donegal did not roll by everyone on the outside. Looked like Epicenter withstood the challenge of Zandon because he is a very good hoss. I thought that when the jock saw the winner inside of him late, he was thinking who thefuc is that ?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Konk

That overhead view should be required for any major track.
There is no excuse not to use the best modern technology.

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660

This is remarkably clueless. Who exactly is going to pay to have the blimp overhead every day? Do you know how much that costs?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is remarkably clueless. Who exactly is going to pay to have the blimp overhead every day? Do you know how much that costs?

While I don’t see it necessary for routine races only for big events like the derby this could be done easily with drones.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

While I don’t see it necessary for routine races only for big events like the derby this could be done easily with drones.

I'm not an expert or even know WTF I am talking about but thinking out loud that they can do it on the cheap with Drones. But probably lots of issues that I am not even considering.

[Hoblin]

Originally Posted by LITF

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Hoblin

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

[Alabama Stakes]

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

[Konk]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is remarkably clueless. Who exactly is going to pay to have the blimp overhead every day? Do you know how much that costs?

Uh, ever hear of drones
They have overhead views at Santa Anita, do they use a blimp?
Remarkably innovative of that track......

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

Yeah he really "freaked" in that 30k claimer.

It's like you're allergic to saying intelligent things.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Also, anyone faulting Irad should watch the overhead view NBC had. He could not have followed the eventual winner.

Credit due to Sonny Leon. He rode a flawless Derby. You really see how brilliant it was on the overhead view.

Not really faulting Irad but I do think he had an option to take the route Rich Strike did. Mo Donegal was ahead of Rich Strike when Rich Strike started moving, passed Mo on the outside then went back inside and started weaving through traffic. Mo made his move after that.

I’m not sure if Mo Donegal would have weaved through traffic or hit those holes the same way…because they opened and closed fairly quickly. It’s hindsight and oddly enough Irad ran into some traffic on the outside, iirc, when White Abarrio moved out. If he tried to go inside and got jammed up, people would probably be slamming him today.

Sonny Leon/Rich Strike had nothing to lose and just ran a great race and got a little luck to help out. I still can’t believe that happened.