5/6 (CD): Triple Crown Tracker

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy.. These horses were mediocrities at 2 FOR Baffert.. WITH Baffert. The records are right there to be absorbed. They had minor graded placements beaten open lengths by Cave Rock and Practical Move. Stop pretending they were the top juveniles on the West Coast last year. They weren't special to begin with. That's the point.

I don't understand your point it seems to discount 30 years of historical evidence.

[King Glorious]

Could part of the answer be that all trainers aren’t equal? Some do great because of the stock they get and some get the stock they get because they are great. I’m not saying either side of the argument is right or wrong because all of you make valid points. But in my mind, any expectation that the horses should perform at or near the same level with Yakteen as with Baffert is underestimating the abilities of Baffert. Or overestimating those of Yakteen. I don’t think with any other top level trainer, would you expect to see their horses improve with a switch to a lesser trainer. And I say Yakteen is lesser with all due respect because he is a more than capable horseman. He’s not Baffert though.

Find it interesting that Forte got a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup, a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and a 95 in the Florida Derby but I don’t hear any talk of regression.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Could part of the answer be that all trainers aren’t equal? Some do great because of the stock they get and some get the stock they get because they are great. I’m not saying either side of the argument is right or wrong because all of you make valid points. But in my mind, any expectation that the horses should perform at or near the same level with Yakteen as with Baffert is underestimating the abilities of Baffert. Or overestimating those of Yakteen. I don’t think with any other top level trainer, would you expect to see their horses improve with a switch to a lesser trainer. And I say Yakteen is lesser with all due respect because he is a more than capable horseman. He’s not Baffert though.

Find it interesting that Forte got a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup, a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, and a 95 in the Florida Derby but I don’t hear any talk of regression.

Everyone knows Forte has not run as fast a race as he had in BC. I am not of the opinion he has regressed and he will be a deserved favorite in KD. That said who wants him at 3/1?

[King Glorious]

I think he’s the favorite too and deserving. I was only using his figures to counter against using what some of the Baffert horses earned earlier and saying their lower numbers now are a possible sign of regression.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think he’s the favorite too and deserving. I was only using his figures to counter against using what some of the Baffert horses earned earlier and saying their lower numbers now are a possible sign of regression.

The point is none have improved which is not typical for Baffert stock

[cakes44]

Exclude all Wood horses as always. Include the Japanese horses. Dump all Yakteen horses.

Man, this is easy!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The point is none have improved which is not typical for Baffert stock

I don’t know why any improvement should be automatically expected.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don’t know why any improvement should be automatically expected.

I know you have watched the TC for the last three decades, so I know you have watched Bafferts colts improve. So I believe you understand the point. If you want to be rational or not, is up to you

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I know you have watched the TC for the last three decades, so I know you have watched Bafferts colts improve. So I believe you understand the point. If you want to be rational or not, is up to you

I have seen them improve. With Baffert continuing to train them. From what I’m reading, it seems that the expectation is that even though they have moved to a “lesser” trainer, they should improve just like his others have improved over the years. What I’m saying is that if the expectation is that Yakteen should improve them the same way Baffert does, there’s really no reason to send horses to Baffert. I don’t agree with that. Baffert has questionable methods and even that might be an understatement. But he’s still good at what he does and I don’t think it’s realistic to expect another trainer to just step in and do just as good a job.

[blackthroatedwind]

I have discussed Forte not running back to his BC pretty extensively.

The vast majority of discussion around the Derby isn't particularly informed and is biased by people's preconceptions.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Exclude all Wood horses as always. Include the Japanese horses. Dump all Yakteen horses.

Man, this is easy!

Taking the same opinion as pretty much everyone else is hardly a great road to winning.

Hit Show could be a very interesting play in the Derby. The Japanese horses will be dramatic underlays, and Practical Move will probably be an overlay.

[Kasept]

5/6 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Forte 190 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
2. Practical Move 160 (Yakteen/Vazquez)
3. Angel of Empire 154 (Cox/Prat)
4. Tapit Trice 150 (Pletcher/Saez)
5. Two Phil’s 123 (Rivelli/Loveberry)
6. Lord Miles 105 (Joseph/P. Lopez)
7. Derma Sotogake-JPN 100 (Otonashi/Lemaire)
8. Kingsbarns 100 (Pletcher/TBA)
9. Raise Cain 64 (Colebrook/Castellano)
10. Rocket Can 60 (Mott/Alvarado)

11. Hit Show 60 (Cox/Franco)
12. Confidence Game 57 (Desormeaux/Graham)
13. Verifying 54 (Cox/Gaffalione)
14. Sun Thunder 54 (McPeek/B. Hernandez-Geroux)
15. +Wild On Ice 50 (Marr/Tohill)
16. Mage 50 (Delgado/TBA)
17. Disarm 46 (Asmussen/Rosario)
18. Reincarnate 45 (Yakteen/Velazquez)
19. Jace’s Road 45 (Cox/Geroux)
20. Continuar-JPN (Yahagi/Sakai) JPN Auto-bid
------------------------------------------------------------
21. Skinner 45 (Shirreffs/Espinoza)
22. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/TBA)
23. Major Dude 40 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
24. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura)
25. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano)

[moses]

What is the symbol next to Wild On Ice? Gelding?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

What is the symbol next to Wild On Ice? Gelding?

Late ($6k) Triple Crown nominee.

[Kasept]

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Late ($6k) Triple Crown nominee.

I thought it meant guaranteed last place finisher, though Disarm getting enough points could throw that into jeopardy:-)

[moses]

Almost two weeks out, is it odd that Kingsbarns, Mage, and Blazing Sevens don’t have jockeys listed? Are they waiting on possible defections before making anything official? Would love to see Carmouche get a mount if possible. Maybe on Kingsbarns.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Almost two weeks out, is it odd that Kingsbarns, Mage, and Blazing Sevens don’t have jockeys listed? Are they waiting on possible defections before making anything official? Would love to see Carmouche get a mount if possible. Maybe on Kingsbarns.

Pletcher typically waits with an extraneous horse in case someone drops out and he can get an A list rider. Not sure why Delgado is waiting. Blazing Sevens is uncertain/doubtful.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Pletcher typically waits with an extraneous horse in case someone drops out and he can get an A list rider. Not sure why Delgado is waiting. Blazing Sevens is uncertain/doubtful.

Thanks Steve.

[Kasept]

Blazing Sevens officially passing Derby; Jace's Road back in, Skinner on deck awaiting word on Sun Thunder (expected Wednesday)..