Two at Toga (2024)

[theguarantee]

Best Value Race 7 #8 Critical Threat
Best Bet Race 10 #3 Heart of the Night

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value Race 7 #8 Critical Threat
Best Bet Race 10 #3 Heart of the Night

[theguarantee]

Thanks jms and casp. Guess I bet the wrong De Paz in the last although I wonder if Heart of the Njght got out he wins....cant complain on the ride by Manny though, rode a perfect race just got unlucky.

[theguarantee]

Bet: $56.00
Returned: $109.80

[jms62]

Originally Posted by casp0555

Was worried about you haven't seen you post in a bit hope you fared ok in that weather.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 9: #3 Belouni 4/1 - Been waiting for this one to move forward and seems recently to be coming to hand. Might need another step forward tobeat Major Dude today but think there's a good chance he's sitting on a big effort.

Best Value Race 10 #7 De Regreso 6/1 - Not a huge believer in Oversubscribed yet. Feels like Manama Gold is going to take a lot of money today. Think this one can sit the right trip today and get first run.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Lakeside Getaway 10/1 - Excited to bet this one in here today. I thought the last race was quite good and she may have just gotten a little tired late. She very slowly was coming around and note after they laid her off she's had a tremendously steady work pattern that seems to indicate the last was no fluke and she's improved as a four year old. That number makes her about as good as anyone in here besides Firsttimeinforever but its fair to wonder if she's going a little off form given her last couple. If Lakeside improves second off the layoff as I expect and Firsttime doesnt get back to her better efforts I think she's a very likely winner today and should be a very nice price to find out.
Best Value: Race 3 #12 Sandrone 12/1 - Perhaps he's just not good enough and the outside post could be a problem but after a couple scratches I think Frankie can come running out of there and stalk or maybe try to tuck behind Royal King. This one clearly has issues staying on the track so I like how hes coming in today with a little additional time since the last trying to target a race like this at the Spa (vs the 2023 spacing).

Good luck

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by jms62

Was worried about you haven't seen you post in a bit hope you fared ok in that weather.

Hey Jim...house and fam okay, no power for 8 days, we had plenty generator power, AC, hot food, and coffee. There were many that had way less than us, never seen the amount of trees down that fell during Beryl.
Now playing catch up...hopefully I will get to watch more Toga...good luck!!

[theguarantee]

Sandrone lost all chance stumbling at the start but probably wasn't good enough anyway.
Lakeside Getaway got a great ride from Lezcano and was simply second best paying $9.20 to place.

Bet: $72.00
Returned: $119.00

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 6 - #2 I'm Just Kiddin 5/1
Has a race that can beat these if ready.
Best Value: Race 5 - #7 Funny Uncle 10/1
Surprised they haven't tried turf since the debut...find it interesting Maker claims and stretches out gets some improvement with Jose aboard. He stays and now they switch to turf at a realistic class level.

[theguarantee]

Funny Uncle got it done with a furious late rally unfortunately the morning line was cut in half, still got $13.60/$7.80

Bet: $80.00
Returned: $140.40

Best Bet: Race 3 # 1/1A entry 9/2
Best Value: Race 9 #6 Freedom Speaks 15/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 - #1 Accretive 5/1
Think he figures to trip out from the rail today and think we will get close to if not all or more of the generous ML despite the connections.
Best Value: Race 8 - #6 Surveillance 6/1
Think is best at 5.5 and certainly seems to handle turf. Getting similar vibes to Funny Uncle today.

[theguarantee]

Traveling today so wanted to post now. Might come back with changes and/or some analysis if I get time.

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Navy Seal 5/1
Best Value: Race 12 - #8 Princess Summer 15/1
Cant resist another Maker claim going to the turf with Jose up

[theguarantee]

Bet: $104.00
Returned: $168.10

Still can't believe neither half of the entry got up Thursday.
Accretive did what he does a lot and was just second best Friday. Surveillance ran to the money he took and Jose gave another excellent ride.
Thought Navy Seal was home free yesterday, some run from WestHollywood. Was pretty excited to bet Princess Summer and she offered nothing.

Best Bet: Race 7 #8 No Nay Hudson 6/1 - I think Wards horses have really been ready to run this meet despite what his win percentage shows. Liked the way he was coming along last year and he should get a great trip with Prat today. Not many of these are big on passing horses and hes the only one who likes to with any tactical speed besides perhaps Nobals of course.

Best Value: Race 10 #6 Shpilkes 12/1 - This is not typically my kind of horse, shipping up from Parx...anyway I was searching this field high and wide because I think Laurel Valley will be overbet today with the obvious running line/win by Gem Mint Ten yesterday. And I just find the other logicals to be very meh. Tried even making Manny Penny, Dolly's Bank or Kingdom on Paws but couldn't do it. Twos a Crowd is a wiseguy horse that I just couldn't really make personally. Left me looking at Shphilkes who many will dismiss setting a very slow pace winning a neck vs a weak field and Parx...and they'll probably be right...but I do wonder if that low Beyer means much given the pace...and I like how much this horse dug in and fought late. The 84 Beyer he ran on the turf last May would make him a legit contender. He ran some other decent races a ways back before going totally off form...hoping the switch back to turf has him rounding back into form and its some very dirtied up form to be sure.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #6 Dark Devil 9/2
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Poca Mucha 15/1

[theguarantee]

Pica Mucha got quite a setup but proved much the best paying 22.60/7.50

Dark Devil had a strange trip looking dead onnthe turn then was really resurgent in the street paying 4.68 to places clearly second best.

Bet: $112.00
Returned: $202.80

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #15 welcome back babe 5/2
Best Value: Race 8 #10 Baldizar 6/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Zverev 4/1- A little obvious in here but its a tricky race where lots could take money, long been high on this one, Cherie has been firing, flattered by West Hollywood...not sure we will get it but 4/1 seems generous.
Best Value: Race 6 #3 Harvard 10/1 - Atras may have found something switching to the turf.

Good luck

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 4 #5 Mim 20/1 - Going to be totally overlooked in here but I think actually should've been moved back to dirt already. Its a ways back but whats wrong with the dirt mile in December vs these?

Will come back with another later.

[theguarantee]

Last five picks have been some of the worst all meet. Hopefully can turn it back around.

Best Bet: Race 8 #1 Emery 5/2 - If they go for Ways and Meand as much as I expect might get all of the ML here and I just think Emery is really on the improve. The last was a little disappointing for most and maybe that will keep enough money off her but she can really finish up the way the good Cox horses do.