5/2 (CD): 141st Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 Graded Stakes Undercard

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by philcski

Wow, how good is that 4th race?

Isnt Carve going to get a honey of a trip behind Bradster and Rocket Time? almost Famous has a bit a of a look second off bench

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

Got ya, and I totally agree on all counts.

A couple of early races were super fast early for the level, but all in all even if the track was playing a bit "fast," it was definitely not as fast as you'd often expect from a track on a big day. Maybe a few lengths faster than normal, but still slow in relation to what you see in some other places.

[TouchOfGrey]

Pletcher's Stanford 50/50 for Derby

[ateamstupid]

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

OK, I now have to move the X I had through Stanford in to Frammento's column.

[knickslions2]

Frammento is a good superfecta add on. Stanford was going to be pace factor for sure and probably finish near last.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

and AP moves to the winless post 17...........

[pmayjr]

who gets the mount? Nakatani?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

Lavender, with dark blue numbers/letters

[Port Conway Lane]

Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double payout per dollar from #7 in first leg
American Pharoah28
Dortmund40
Frosted86
Carpe Diem91
Firing Line95
Mubtaahij110
Materiality117
Upstart148
International Star195
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Materiality
Upstart
International Star
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of double money for his odds

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by robfla

MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of double money for his odds

Yeah, I guess he's the wiseguy horse.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
Materiality
Upstart
International Star
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.

where can I find these double prices? thanks

[Port Conway Lane]

Any ADW should have them. I use twinspires.
Here is a link to current derby odds, little help at this time with the small pool.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...erby-live-odds

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Any ADW should have them. I use twinspires.
Here is a link to current derby odds, little help at this time with the small pool.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-...erby-live-odds

Wow, some interesting odds there so far.

[outofthebox]

Competitive edge sparkling mile..Quality colt..Met mile?

[Dunbar]

With 7.3 million in the win pool, AP is 3.3-1. Dort is 4.4-1.

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

Mark Casse is unstoppable today.

[Danzig]

Win bets on frosted, carpet diem, mubtaahij, used frammento, Danzig moon, upstart, war story and far right underneath. Seems like a long shot always hits the board, so figured I'd give it a whirl.