3/30 (GP): Florida Derby Day

[Alabama Stakes]

I wonder how they will bet the big race ?

[theguarantee]

Seems like everyone is against Social Paranoia. On paper I was going to be against him, then re-watching his replays I didn't find a ton to dislike. Ran OK facing decent on dirt, but whatever. When switched to the turf he ran pretty well with only the very solid Forty Under and Somelikeithotbrown defeating him with mild trips...off since September but it's Pletcher at Gulfstream...what am I missing?

Also, if anyone has any take on any of the firsters in there it'd be very welcome...I personally really like Freedom's Flight. Overbold has a big of longshot appeal. Clear Blue Sky if drawing in is worth consideration. Those + Pletcher and the firsters are my considerations but would prefer to narrow.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I wonder how they will bet the big race ?

I still think Hidden Scroll will be pretty short. For every detractor there are 3 people who still think he's special. I think his odds will be "-to 5" ...

Feels like Bourbon War will take more money than Code of Honor is just my sense...I wanted to talk myself into Code of Honor for that reason but I just kept re-watching that race feeling like Code of Honor got the all-time trip and that, square as this thought is, Bourbon War will relish the added ground.

I feel like Bourbon War will be more 2-1 or 5-2 and Code of Honor could drift. Maximum Security of course will basically make or break everyone's odds and I have no real guess as to where he ends up.

Just my take.

[RHT2004]

Humbling day so far.
Gulf 10th
Big double
6,8 with 3,5
Prices on the 6,8 are way way way 2 big.

[Alabama Stakes]

My head spinning too.
Alive to 1-2-3-4 onto Harvey Wallbanger for the miracle get out

[ElPrado]

Thank you, blinkers on in the 8th.

[moses]

Man...I give up.

[knickslions2]

Lights out after the first quarter. Derby going to be very tough pick

[Alabama Stakes]

Javier rode poorly those last 2 races.

[moses]

Bodexpress now with 40 Derby points. Such a weird situation. The Lexington is going to be interesting. Might see a horse or two steal some points and get into the Derby that way.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Bodexpress now with 40 Derby points. Such a weird situation. The Lexington is going to be interesting. Might see a horse or two steal some points and get into the Derby that way.

The Lexington is only 20 points to the winner now.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Lexington is only 20 points to the winner now.

I know - but if you’re a horse like Anothertwistafate, Country House, Sueno, or Mucho Gusto, maybe that gets you into the top 20. Some of those horses could get bumped down depending on what happens next weekend. Mucho Gusto is listed as possible for it on HRN.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by moses

I know - but if you’re a horse like Anothertwistafate, Country House, Sueno, or Mucho Gusto, maybe that gets you into the top 20. Some of those horses could get bumped down depending on what happens next weekend. Mucho Gusto is listed as possible for it on HRN.

Mucho Gusto is a sprinter. Been saying that for months.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Mucho Gusto is a sprinter. Been saying that for months.

You can't fault him for caving late after that ridiculous pace at Sunland (and he did battle back far a brief spell at the top of the lane). He settled well when stalking the pacesetter in the Robert Lewis, rallied smartly on the far turn, and pulled clear emphatically down the stretch. He also pulled clear of the rest and finished up well when runner up in the Los Al Futurity after setting a modest tempo.

Where he probably falls down is his class level. Improbable tore him a new one in the latter race. Despite that, if I was convinced he would be taken off the engine in the Kentucky Derby, I think he could have a live longshot look.

That said, I would love to see him in the Allen Jerkens at 7 furlongs (or the Malibu at the end of the year). In general, horses that can handle a middle distance have an advantage over true sprinters in extended sprints.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You can't fault him for caving late after that ridiculous pace at Sunland (and he did battle back far a brief spell at the top of the lane). He settled well when stalking the pacesetter in the Robert Lewis, rallied smartly on the far turn, and pulled clear emphatically down the stretch. He also pulled clear of the rest and finished up well when runner up in the Los Al Futurity after setting a modest tempo.

Where he probably falls down is his class level. Improbable tore him a new one in the latter race. Despite that, if I was convinced he would be taken off the engine in the Kentucky Derby, I think he could have a live longshot look.

That said, I would love to see him in the Allen Jerkens at 7 furlongs (or the Malibu at the end of the year). In general, horses that can handle a middle distance have an advantage over true sprinters in extended sprints.

This is all fair. I just always love these fast horses, who feel a bit distance challenged turning back. A horse like Country House could also be a beast at 7f. He needs pace and he'd get it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

This is all fair. I just always love these fast horses, who feel a bit distance challenged turning back.

Yep, McKinzie is a perfect example. If he gets collared at short odds in the Big Cap, he might be an enticing price in the Met Mile.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

This is all fair. I just always love these fast horses, who feel a bit distance challenged turning back. A horse like Country House could also be a beast at 7f. He needs pace and he'd get it.

You are dramatically overrating Country House. He's just not that good.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Mucho Gusto is a sprinter. Been saying that for months.

You may be right. I think he can win at longer distances but sprints may suit him.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are dramatically overrating Country House. He's just not that good.

The thing with Country House - to me - is that he isn’t that good right now, but I feel like he’s still scratching the surface of his potential. But I guess at some point I should look at what he’s actually done and not what I think he is capable of.

[richard burch]

Disappointed in Harvey Banger but I would run him in the Belmont. I was hoping that I wouldn't have to pick a B.Baffert runner in the derby but it looks like I'll be picking a B.Baffert runner in the derby.