Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[wac]

just read the story on drf about the leg infection and not getting to CD when they wanted. That would concern me if i was gonna bet on him. Seems like at this stage of game there can be NO issues at all. Opinions??

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by wac

just read the story on drf about the leg infection and not getting to CD when they wanted. That would concern me if i was gonna bet on him. Seems like at this stage of game there can be NO issues at all. Opinions??

Not good news....

http://www.drf.com/news/aqueduct-alpha-staying-home-now

[Perrault Robbed]

I forecast Bodemeister winning the Preakness and running 2nd to Princess Arabella in the Belmont.

Considering the odds I am hearing, he is the first horse I throw out of the Derby. In my opinion, Baffert is short a race with this horse. He let him roll in the Ark Derby because there was little pace and he needed money to get in the Derby. I think this field is much better than the ones which Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown were able to rate, pounce and win. The fact of the matter is the horse has never rated. He did look a lot more comfortable when the hood came off but he was on an easy lead. Twice he has been on loose leads and romped; twice he has had a horse in front of him and he lost. I think he will come out of the Derby a much better horse than going in. If he makes the lead and wins a la Winning Colors, War Emblem, Spend a Buck, then so be it, but I find that scenario highly, highly unlikely. I might throw him in a Pick 3 or a Pick 4 if he were 15-1 or so, but as a co-favorite or so, no thanks.

Obviously my comment on top reflects my opinion of the Oaks. IMHO, she is very,very, special. I think Baffert has been sitting with pocket aces since day one with this filly, and he has been blowing hard about Eden's Moon all spring to take attention away from this claasy miss.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Perrault Robbed

I forecast Bodemeister winning the Preakness and running 2nd to Princess Arabella in the Belmont.

Considering the odds I am hearing, he is the first horse I throw out of the Derby. In my opinion, Baffert is short a race with this horse. He let him roll in the Ark Derby because there was little pace and he needed money to get in the Derby. I think this field is much better than the ones which Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown were able to rate, pounce and win. The fact of the matter is the horse has never rated. He did look a lot more comfortable when the hood came off but he was on an easy lead. Twice he has been on loose leads and romped; twice he has had a horse in front of him and he lost. I think he will come out of the Derby a much better horse than going in. If he makes the lead and wins a la Winning Colors, War Emblem, Spend a Buck, then so be it, but I find that scenario highly, highly unlikely. I might throw him in a Pick 3 or a Pick 4 if he were 15-1 or so, but as a co-favorite or so, no thanks.

Obviously my comment on top reflects my opinion of the Oaks. IMHO, she is very,very, special. I think Baffert has been sitting with pocket aces since day one with this filly, and he has been blowing hard about Eden's Moon all spring to take attention away from this claasy miss.

Mamma Kimbo is no slouch.

[Perrault Robbed]

I must admit that the thing with Princess A was for me like some Luck moment when Nolte's horse was running down the lane to violin music; however, the music started playing in the post parade rather than during the race. She looked more like your typical Drysdale mare back in the day than a Baffert. Edens Moon looks like something Baffert would train. When Arabella stepped on the track, I just sat back (she was like 3-5) and said I want to see what this girl can do cause it could be spectacular. HRTV immediately went off over her, particularly Pincay, Jr., to all of America.

Now, I was within 3 feet of Mamma Kimbo in the paddock when she broke her maiden, and there was a reason she was 6-1 or so in the midst of Baffert's historic streak. She was not an overly impressive athlete. She did run a lightning fast time that day however, and her Fantasy win was extremely impressive. You are right; she is no slouch, but it is rich man/poor man come May 4th for me.

If I am correct, but I might be mistaken, Arabella's attempt is something of a figures versus eye test scenario. I am not sure her figures have been all that good her last couple of races; however, i think they were both just public workouts for her. What do you do with a public workout that is getting a race figure? Her gallop out in the 7f allowance win was tremendous.
If you look at the works going into that race, she was verey lightly worked going into that race. The Oaks in New Mexico was a joke. We will see. As we all know, sometimes you get knocked the ____ out.

[Indian Charlie]

Visually speaking, Arabella is no Phone Trick.

[pucknut]

alpha and bodiemeister my top two
subject to further health words on both

[tywizard]

Any recommendations on how you hedge when you have some decent future pool tickets alive? I have liked Gemologist since last year and feel like I have secured some decent value relative to derby day odds. I have no reason at this point to jump ship but just curious how to approach. In df pool 2 I have an exacta box with gemologist tci and dullahan so I can't help but route for that finish.

[Clip-Clop]

Hansen
Gemologist
Daddy Nose Best
Alpha
Dullahan

The Wood returns to glory!

Originally Posted by tywizard

Any recommendations on how you hedge when you have some decent future pool tickets alive? I have liked Gemologist since last year and feel like I have secured some decent value relative to derby day odds. I have no reason at this point to jump ship but just curious how to approach. In df pool 2 I have an exacta box with gemologist tci and dullahan so I can't help but route for that finish.

The only way Gem loses is if Bode is a freak which I don't think he is.

blogspot.com/

[blackthroatedwind]

There's nothing like a first time guest that uses someone else's house to promote himself.

Only 18 days until the Derby is over!

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's nothing like a first time guest that uses someone else's house to promote himself.

Only 18 days until the Derby is over!

Hmmm, looks familiar. How long until he unleashes a string of obscenities?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Hmmm, looks familiar. How long until he unleashes a string of obscenities?

I'm guessing he doesn't get a chance.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's nothing like a first time guest that uses someone else's house to promote himself.

Only 18 days until the Derby is over!

Right around this time every year, you remind me of that guy at the concert who hates all the popluar songs his favorite band plays.

Of course, I always hated Wonderwall.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Right around this time every year, you remind me of that guy at the concert who hates all the popluar songs his favorite band plays.

Of course, I always hated Wonderwall.

You're just jealous because I'm going to the Furthur concert today.

I really hope they don't play Casey Jones.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're just jealous because I'm going to the Furthur concert today.

I really hope they don't play Casey Jones.

Grateful Dead, Nassau Colisuem, May 14th, 1980.....What did they close with?

No way you get this.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Grateful Dead, Nassau Colisuem, May 14th, 1980.....What did they close with?

No way you get this.

That was a few days after my second show.

I'll guess...US Blues or Don't Ease Me In.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That was a few days after my second show.

I'll guess...US Blues or Don't Ease Me In.

Un-God-Damn-Real.

[worms12]

I enjoyed throwing some money in the futures. I have win bets in Pool 1&2
for TCI, and exacta box in pool 2 with CC,TCI, and Rags.

[FATPIANO]

In January, I told my brother that Gemologist will be an undefeated Triple Crown Winner. Well here it is 17 days to go, and I stand by what I said in January..............Gemologist will not be denied...........When he wins The Derby and is still undefeated, you all will jump on the bandwagon. Go Gem Go..