Fixed Race at Fg Xmas Eve

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

B spencer Sorry for the foray into Thorograph and muddying the waters. Lets use Beyers:

Beyerwise Direct Splash is at best a 70 horse, with lousy form (your assessment that he improved dramatically in his last is mostly meritless, his time would not have beat $4000 claimers on the same card) and could not be expected to run his lifetime best given that form.

Three winners on the same card also won their last. High adventure (last race Beyer 88), Teuflesberg (86) and Nowand forever (97). All won impressively. Lets foolishly assume Beyerwise all regressed.

Direct Splash was faster than all of these. If he Beyered as low as 80 he improved roughly fifteen lengths. His win price dictates the owners, the exercise boy and the jock were all that were in on it. The win price caught my attention, the horses pp's and subsequent final time confirmed the fix.
STS I love the Fairgrounds and adore Louisiana Downs but hold disdain for Evangeline and Delta and bet them once or twice every decade or so. Similarly, I relish Keeneland and CD but do not care for Ellis or Latonia. My "circuit" would be the best midwest track running. I posted my successes because this will be my last post for a week or more (vacation) and all the flack I recieved questioning my hits. I have some very interesting theories on playing the pick 4 and would rather have shared them than defend myself even if it was my best year. One of my techniques I employ I have termed "bending" (the ticket) and it is as much statistical as it is handicapping. I hold a degree in finance from the university of Ky (13 yrs and they give you a diploma to get rid of you, gpa 2.08 thank you). and one of my professors in ststistics gave me a head start. "Bending" minimizes investment while maximizes payoffs!!

As far as What happened I do not know. But I can guarantee Sylvester will not be charged. Louisiana only has 4 million people and it would be hard to find twelve impartial jurors regarding this case out of such a small pool. LOL

Congrats to the pick 4 players in Arcadia last night, good solid analysis by all with a winner to boot. Nice work. Also over the last year, 99% of the horses that Wayne Lukas worked has had the same comments from everyone..." sharp early speed, dull finish" I do think "pegasus is a very nice colt and if he moves on will be a nice 3yo. Happy new year to all. Good cappin. BBB

The only "bending" I see from you is with regard to logic. You claim to always play horses with odds of between 40 and 100 to 1, yet just observing the PP's on this one "confirmed a fix". You have confirmed nothing about that race. You know nothing conclusive about what was done by the jockey. You are merely an internet poster engaging in wild speculation.

BTW, the more you explain your wagering techniques and successes the more unbelievable it becomes. You're in a hole, I would just stop digging. It sounds like interesting stuff but the successes ($1,800 > $32,000) are not believable to me.

[Cannon Shell]

Why fix a race and not bet on it? The horse paid $170!!! Which means virtually no money was bet through the pools. Try getting a bookmaker to pay you on a $170 winner more than 20-1. So are you suggesting they only were "fixing" the race for the purse? Makes no sense.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Why fix a race and not bet on it? The horse paid $170!!! Which means virtually no money was bet through the pools. Try getting a bookmaker to pay you on a $170 winner more than 20-1. So are you suggesting they only were "fixing" the race for the purse? Makes no sense.

" Makes no sense "

At least the rest of it is perfectly logical.

Hope the holidays found everyone happy and healthy but felt compelled to follow up on the dated thread...not to overkill the issue.


Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

Cannon: I would guess maybe $300, was bet to win on Direct Splash. Say $100 luck and $100 dumb money. That leaves $100 and I cannot account for that "player". Years ago we set up a horse, quite inadvertently, at Keeneland , told everybody and all their friends. In fact, we claimed him back, after losing him, at a huge premium. He won well clear, paid $58 and "everybody" had a ticket on him.

AP jim I play almost strictly pick 4 's. Odds of 40-1 to 200 -1 are normal for me and everyone else who plays in this method! Fifty to win, fifty to place is loser city. BBB

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Hope the holidays found everyone happy and healthy but felt compelled to follow up on the dated thread...not to overkill the issue.


Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

Cannon: I would guess maybe $300, was bet to win on Direct Splash. Say $100 luck and $100 dumb money. That leaves $100 and I cannot account for that "player". Years ago we set up a horse, quite inadvertently, at Keeneland , told everybody and all their friends. In fact, we claimed him back, after losing him, at a huge premium. He won well clear, paid $58 and "everybody" had a ticket on him.

AP jim I play almost strictly pick 4 's. Odds of 40-1 to 200 -1 are normal for me and everyone else who plays in this method! Fifty to win, fifty to place is loser city. BBB

Seems like an awful lot of trouble to cash a $100 bet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Hope the holidays found everyone happy and healthy but felt compelled to follow up on the dated thread...not to overkill the issue.


Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

Cannon: I would guess maybe $300, was bet to win on Direct Splash. Say $100 luck and $100 dumb money. That leaves $100 and I cannot account for that "player". Years ago we set up a horse, quite inadvertently, at Keeneland , told everybody and all their friends. In fact, we claimed him back, after losing him, at a huge premium. He won well clear, paid $58 and "everybody" had a ticket on him.

AP jim I play almost strictly pick 4 's. Odds of 40-1 to 200 -1 are normal for me and everyone else who plays in this method! Fifty to win, fifty to place is loser city. BBB

70 Beyer to 81 Beyer is NOT a 15 length improvement at 6F (or any distance, for that matter)... a lot closer to 5 lengths.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

70 Beyer to 81 Beyer is NOT a 15 length improvement at 6F (or any distance, for that matter)... a lot closer to 5 lengths.

In fact, it's four lengths.


However, when you make $18 for every dollar you bet accuracy is the last thing you are interested in.

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Hope the holidays found everyone happy and healthy but felt compelled to follow up on the dated thread...not to overkill the issue.


Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

Cannon: I would guess maybe $300, was bet to win on Direct Splash. Say $100 luck and $100 dumb money. That leaves $100 and I cannot account for that "player". Years ago we set up a horse, quite inadvertently, at Keeneland , told everybody and all their friends. In fact, we claimed him back, after losing him, at a huge premium. He won well clear, paid $58 and "everybody" had a ticket on him.

AP jim I play almost strictly pick 4 's. Odds of 40-1 to 200 -1 are normal for me and everyone else who plays in this method! Fifty to win, fifty to place is loser city. BBB

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

I disagree because your analysis of his improvement is 100% wrong. Wrong, as in not even up for discussion. Wrong, as in so wrong that there is not even a 1% chance that you are right. Wrong, as in even if I were 10 beers into the night I would still have a better analysis of it than you, which at one point in the thread, I think I actually did.

And don't worry about overkill on the thread, the wild conjecture and your surprisingly strong conviction about the whole thing all makes so little sense that it cannot possibly cease to be entertaining.

Coincidence is the simultaneous, accidental occurrence of events. When Direct Splash won Xmas eve coincidence was not in the house. Two events most agree on are:

Event 1) Direct Splash had a sudden, dramatic reversal of form.

Event 2) Sylvester Carmouche Jr. was the jockey.

Regarding the former it would take some very creative handicapping to explain his performance. A lifetime effort by 11 Beyer points in his 17th start after three x's!
The race was split (two races carded on the same day with identical conditions) and I estimate thousands of split races were run in North America at six furlongs last year. How many had a time difference of over a full second? I would guess less than a handful.

As for the latter, Mr. Carmouche has had a checkered career, including a ten year ban from the sport for fraud. In 2003, he fell from his mount one morning at Delta and sued a constuction company claiming one of their trucks caused a disturbance. The case was tossed when the company proved they did not have a truck within miles of the track. Having followed Louisiana racing for many years I would label Carmouche as a buzzer jock but that would be opinion. Likewise, I could relate some of the emails I recieved from some Nola people offering past firsthand knowledge, but that would be hearsay.

In conclusion people have their own ideas and thats great. My take is O.J. is guilty, the world is not flat, and he plugged the horse in. Any other explanation contains conclusions laced with naivety and/or highly questionable handicapping. Playing Sunday BBB

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

whatever dude.....did you have the horse..if not its poor handicapping on your part because you knew the guy rides dirty...according to you..

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

1. Regarding the former it would take some very creative handicapping to explain his performance. A lifetime effort by 11 Beyer points in his 17th start after three x's!


2. Any other explanation contains conclusions laced with naivety and/or highly questionable handicapping. Playing Sunday BBB

1. It's not "creative," just logical handicapping. It's redboarding for certain, but it was not the most shocking event we will ever see.

I will just refer you to my original post for something like the 6th time: http://www.derbytrail.com./forums/sh...4&postcount=15

2. You're implying that anyone else's conclusion is naive and highly questionable? You're pretty much all alone on this one, bud.

However that's better than sour grapes any day man. And that's basically all you've managed to convey in this thread, is that you didn't cash a ticket and it made you sad. Very sad. And sour. Like sour grapes.

[blackthroatedwind]

I can't speak for everyone but I find they are many less fixed races taking place when I'm in the midst of a winning streak.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't speak for everyone but I find they are many less fixed races taking place when I'm in the midst of a winning streak.

you can speak for me with that.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Hope the holidays found everyone happy and healthy but felt compelled to follow up on the dated thread...not to overkill the issue.


Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

Cannon: I would guess maybe $300, was bet to win on Direct Splash. Say $100 luck and $100 dumb money. That leaves $100 and I cannot account for that "player". Years ago we set up a horse, quite inadvertently, at Keeneland , told everybody and all their friends. In fact, we claimed him back, after losing him, at a huge premium. He won well clear, paid $58 and "everybody" had a ticket on him.

AP jim I play almost strictly pick 4 's. Odds of 40-1 to 200 -1 are normal for me and everyone else who plays in this method! Fifty to win, fifty to place is loser city. BBB

Here we go again, the thread that won't die. Why do you keep trying to have the definitive final word?

First of all, you can say all you want that someone plugged a horse, but it is still only wild speculation on your part. None of your evidence is remotely conclusive, in fact your only evidence is the horse running a greatly improved effort.

Who was the loser who said anything about 50 WP? I certainly didn't. You called the horse I played in that race a questionable choice at low odds. I pointed out that he was the fourth favorite in an eight horse field. You said those were low odds compared to your PK 4 plays which pay 40-200 to one. In my case you are referring to the win odds on my pick being low, but you compare that to the odds offered by a four race sequence. Of course 9/2 would be ridiculously low odds for such a sequence, however a fourth favorite at 9/2 would make a very nice contribution to a total pick 4 payoff in the odds range you are looking for.

My play on that race as i recall was tri's and or supers, which are also wagers that offer returns of high odds. I did not say that my play was to win which is what you imply when you say my horse was low odds at 9/2.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I believe I am the loser for making $50 win/place bets. One of those subtle shots that BBB throws in. We all can't hit like he does. We actually we can if we lie about it, seems to work...

Well i would never call someone a loser for making that kind of play.
It all depends on the situation and how you play.

There is not just one magic type of play that is the correct one for everyone.

[brianwspencer]

By the way -- Saucey Tiger, the runnerup, returned to the races yesterday and posted a win.

Turns out, he ran another 6 on the TG sheets in the race won by Direct Splash.

He had a four-wide trip which cost him, rough estimate, about four lengths. He got beat by a bit over a length by Direct Splash.

That indicates that Direct Splash, who ran on the rail on the lead likely ran something along the lines of a 6.5 or 7 on the TG, which is only an improvement of a little over a length as compared to his career top.

What does this tell us? That Direct Splash was entirely capable of running this number. As much as Bellsendboy would like to have us believe, he did not in fact, run a 0 or any number that would indicate an improvement of "15 lengths" over his career top.

Actually, he just ran what was slightly his career top.

Who needs a buzzer for that?

Once again, I will reiterate that at this point all rational thinkers connected to anything resembling reality can now close the case file on this one thanks to yours truly, the TG Research Kid.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

By the way -- Saucey Tiger, the runnerup, returned to the races yesterday and posted a win.

Turns out, he ran another 6 on the TG sheets in the race won by Direct Splash.

He had a four-wide trip which cost him, rough estimate, about four lengths. He got beat by a bit over a length by Direct Splash.

That indicates that Direct Splash, who ran on the rail on the lead likely ran something along the lines of a 6.5 or 7 on the TG, which is only an improvement of a little over a length as compared to his career top.

What does this tell us? That Direct Splash was entirely capable of running this number. As much as Bellsendboy would like to have us believe, he did not in fact, run a 0 or any number that would indicate an improvement of "15 lengths" over his career top.

Actually, he just ran what was slightly his career top.

Who needs a buzzer for that?

Once again, I will reiterate that at this point all rational thinkers connected to anything resembling reality can now close the case file on this one thanks to yours truly, the TG Research Kid.

there is a God...

[Danzig]

i love happy endings.

[ArlJim78]

Well for those who missed it, our boy Direct Splash made his return to racing Saturday at Delta Downs. He scratched out of a stakes race to run in a tough five furlong allowance race for LA breds.

He hopped up at the break and essentially had no chance at that point, spotting the field several lengths. He did motor up into contention and ran what I would call a respectable fourth considering the start.

It looks to me that he has maintained the sharp form that he displayed on Christmas Eve. Kudos to the connections for getting this guy turned around and racing competitively once again. Hopefully in his next start he'll receive better racing luck.