5/1 (CD): 147th Kentucky Derby

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

[Hoblin]

Originally Posted by moses

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

The interesting thing is that in the race prior to the pick-5, Gamine is the 1/5 favorite in the 20-cent pick-6.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

Colonel Liam is the most likely winner on Friday and Saturday? Let's bet $1000, I'll take another horse, and you can have Colonel Liam. If the both win, or they both lose, no bet. But if one wins and the other loses, the loser pays.

I'll take Gamine.

You're on.

[theguarantee]

Fair enough Andy. I’m going to walk back my statement. Still think Colonel Liam is an extremely likely winner and will be the horse I pass all my multis through...touché though, you are correct

[pucknut]

Andy
Do you like Liam in the race, if not , where are you leaning.
Gamine is on paper a free square

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

I will likely be leaning heavily on him as well and spread a bit in Races 9, 10, and 12.

I keep trying to make a case against Gamine and I'm not sure there is much of one. The one question I have is whether lack of lasix will impact her at all if she were to be pressured but I'm not sure anyone in this race can pressure her in any meaningful way. I may fire off a small Pick 3 or something where I use Bell's the One but I don't really want to commit any large amount of money on betting against Gamine.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

I will likely be leaning heavily on him as well and spread a bit in Races 9, 10, and 12.

I keep trying to make a case against Gamine and I'm not sure there is much of one. The one question I have is whether lack of lasix will impact her at all if she were to be pressured but I'm not sure anyone in this race can pressure her in any meaningful way. I may fire off a small Pick 3 or something where I use Bell's the One but I don't really want to commit any large amount of money on betting against Gamine.

No lasix didn’t seem to bother her in her comeback race.

She’s probably my least favorite horse in training but the only question mark is her lone okay effort last year was at Churchill but that was more a two turn thing than her not liking it there IMO

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

No lasix didn’t seem to bother her in her comeback race.

She’s probably my least favorite horse in training but the only question mark is her lone okay effort last year was at Churchill but that was more a two turn thing than her not liking it there IMO

Agreed on all that. She is probably unbeatable around one turn.

My lasix comment is admittedly a reach but she got a soft pace in her most recent race so I wonder if she’d struggle more if anyone could pressure her. On lasix, it didn’t seem to matter. But either way, I don’t see anyone really pressing her so it’s probably a moot point.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Andy
Do you like Liam in the race, if not , where are you leaning.
Gamine is on paper a free square

I don’t have my pps in front of me but am leaning to Domestic Spending and Count Again. Colonel Liam can surely win but this is a MUCH tougher spot and he’s coming off consecutive soft trips.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by cakes44

They usually have the race going on in the background with some stupid interview going on or the announcers blabbing about hats or something if I remember correctly...though admittedly I am generally pretty loaded by that time.

Nice!!

[richard burch]

Exacta 14 with 4/6/13/ 19 / 20


Long Shot - 19 Soup and Sandwich

Good luck to all!

[King Glorious]

Anyone remember back in the day when we were kids and we got in trouble at school and had to write standards on the board?

I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN
I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN
I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN

...and you can pretty much single any horse by Tapit in the 4th spot in the superfecta, especially if it's gray and owned by Godolphin...

5 times in the last 9 years if you count Tacitus (who was technically moved up to 3rd).

[richard burch]

Great stretch drive...congrats to BB and all...

[Dahoss]

How good was Domestic Spending yesterday? Should be fun to see him the rest of the year

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

How good was Domestic Spending yesterday? Should be fun to see him the rest of the year

He was huge, and Liam gets another cupcake trip. Liam is an excellent horse that said he was not close to the best horse in that race. Digital Age had a weird trip. I thought JC was reacting it's like he never had a plan. I think he ran better than it looked as well.

[Dahoss]

I didn’t like his chances anyway, but it would appear as though Rosario fell asleep in the gate aboard Rock Your World. His foot was out of the stirrup when the gates opened and while all of the other jocks were pumping to get position his hands were down. He then got bumped, costing him any chance, but it would appear he had no chance from the start.

https://twitter.com/A_Evers/status/1388933579678359552

[Dahoss]

Rosario’s foot was out of the left stirrup a good 1/16th of a mile into the race. It’s actually amazing he stayed on.

[Dahoss]

I just read Rosario said RYW lost a shoe at the start. LMAO. No mention of his foot not being where it needed to be at the start.

What a game!