Derby Trail Probables/Possibles - Page 2

Kasept · #21 03-26-2021, 10:38 AM

Prevalence confirmed for Wood..

Kasept · #22 03-27-2021, 02:47 PM

8 expected for Santa Anita Derby..

Medina Spirit (Baffert/J. Velazquez)
Roman Centurian (S .Callaghan/J. Hernandez)
Dream Shake (Eurton)
Defunded (Baffert)
Ottothelegend (Asmussen)
Parnelli (Shirreffs)
Rock Your World (Sadler)
The Great One (O'Neill)

Kasept · #23 03-28-2021, 08:41 AM

1. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill) 110
2. Like the King (Wesley Ward) 104
3. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher) 102
4. Rebel’s Romance-IRE (Charlie Appleby) 100
5. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey) 60
6. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen) 66
7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox) 52
8. Concert Tour (Bob Baffert) 50
9. Helium (Mark Casse) 50
10. Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens) 50
11. Essential Quality (Brad Cox) 40
-- Panadol (Salem bin Ghad)40
12. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse) 40
13. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher) 40
14. Proxy (Mike Stidham) 34
15. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert) 34
16. O Besos (Greg Foley) 25
17. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver) 22
-- New Treasure-IRE (John Gosden) 20
18. Hozier (Bob Baffert)
19. JPN Road to Derby
20. EUR Road to Derby
---------------------------------------------
21. Drain the Clock (Saffie Joseph Jr.) 20
22. Crowded Trade (Chad Brown) 20
---------------------------------------------
-- Hockey Dad (Doug O'Neill) 20
23. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro) 18
24. Spielberg (Bob Baffert) 17
25. Rombauer (Michael McCarthy) 14
26. Nova Rags (Bill Mott) 14
27. Capo Kane (Harold Wyner) 12
28. Papetu (Antonio Sano) 11

cakes44 · #24 03-28-2021, 11:20 AM

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

RolloTomasi · #25 03-28-2021, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

Yep; the Santa Anita Derby is equally as atrocious as this weekend's preps.

That said, Rock Your World is an x-factor of interest. Has a million dollar pedigree that goes back several generations. Most of the family accomplishments are on turf but there's definitely some dirt in there (Candy Ride, Olympio, Olympic Charmer, Herecomesthebride).

Ottothelegend has a very strong, versatile pedigree as well, but he's way behind the eight ball.

moses · #26 03-28-2021, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yep; the Santa Anita Derby is equally as atrocious as this weekend's preps.

That said, Rock Your World is an x-factor of interest. Has a million dollar pedigree that goes back several generations. Most of the family accomplishments are on turf but there's definitely some dirt in there (Candy Ride, Olympio, Olympic Charmer, Herecomesthebride).

Ottothelegend has a very strong, versatile pedigree as well, but he's way behind the eight ball.

Dream Shake ran a big race in his maiden breaker, respectable 2-turn debut in the San Felipe, and has solid pedigree. The race doesn’t look great on paper with most of the top CA horses either off the trail or shipped out but maybe it won’t be so bad.

RolloTomasi · #27 03-28-2021, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Dream Shake ran a big race in his maiden breaker, respectable 2-turn debut in the San Felipe, and has solid pedigree. The race doesn’t look great on paper with most of the top CA horses either off the trail or shipped out but maybe it won’t be so bad.

Horse has talent but at risk of burning out quickly. Too much too soon. Now they are starting to overdo it even more by bullet working him since the San Felipe where he pulled himself into 2nd under restraint but was empty at the 3/8s pole.

The added ground is likely to negate whatever separation he had from Roman Centurian and The Great One.

When racing was actually structured with a decent population of horses in CA, Dream Shake would have sprinted once or twice more before stretching out in the Affirmed-Swaps double at Hollywood.

blackthroatedwind · #28 03-28-2021, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

If there was ever a year for a foreign horse to win it...

If Essential Quality doesn’t make it for some reason or doesn’t fire, this group is something else.

What has Essential Quality actually done on the racetrack to separate himself from quite a few other contenders? He’s gotten one perfect trip after another and run figures that put him very much in the mix but hardly a significant favorite. Perhaps he will show real improvement on Saturday, but call me skeptical.

moses · #29 03-29-2021, 10:32 AM

Tarantino is apparently pointing to the Bluegrass after running this weekend in the Jeff Ruby.

moses · #30 03-29-2021, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What has Essential Quality actually done on the racetrack to separate himself from quite a few other contenders? He’s gotten one perfect trip after another and run figures that put him very much in the mix but hardly a significant favorite. Perhaps he will show real improvement on Saturday, but call me skeptical.

Curious to see the odds for the Blue Grass. I thought Highly Motivated ran pretty well in the Gotham considering the bit of trouble he had and coming off a layoff. It'll be his first time around two turns but I think he can beat Essential Quality.

By the way, are my eyes playing tricks on me? The chart says Highly Motivated was back 2.5 lengths at the top of the stretch and finished 1.75 lengths behind. It looks like he made up much more than 3/4 of a length.

Kasept · #31 03-29-2021, 03:48 PM

Proxy a Derby unlikely per Stidham on ATR today..

moses · #32 03-29-2021, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Proxy a Derby unlikely per Stidham on ATR today..

Being a half to Micheline, I’m going to keep an eye out to see if he ends up on turf some time in the future.

Kasept · #33 03-29-2021, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Being a half to Micheline, I’m going to keep an eye out to see if he ends up on turf some time in the future.

Was discussed too.

moses · #34 03-29-2021, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Was discussed too.

I'll have to give it a listen. I've been working from home for a year now and it's amazing how much less free time I have than I used to.

Kasept · #35 03-30-2021, 06:35 AM

Addition of PRX-based Super Ninety Nine gelding MARKET MAVEN brings Wood field to to 10..

Weyburn (J. Jerkens/T. McCarthy)
Risk Taking (C. Brown/E. Cancel)
Crowded Trade (C. Brown)
Prevalence (Walsh/Gaffalione)
Brooklyn Strong (D. Velazquez)
Candy Man Rocket (Mott)
Bourbonic (Pletcher)
Dynamic One (Pletcher)
Market Maven (Pearce)

blackthroatedwind · #36 03-30-2021, 09:54 AM

It was announced yesterday that Nicky the Vest isn’t running

FATPIANO · #37 03-31-2021, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Proxy a Derby unlikely per Stidham on ATR today..

Kasept · #38 03-31-2021, 10:03 AM

9 horses made eligible to Triple Crown w/ $6,000 late payment:

Back Ring Luck
Carrothers
Helium
Hockey Dad
It's My House
Maythehorsebwithu
Panadol
Tiz Mandate
Weyburn

Kasept · #39 03-31-2021, 11:16 AM

The Shadwell NY-bred Panadol (Flatter) appears to be Derby-intended..

blackthroatedwind · #40 03-31-2021, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Shadwell NY-bred Panadol (Flatter) appears to be Derby-intended..

Anyone know who he is?