3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Thanks Steve. Is that 15-20/1 Derby Day or the end of today?

Derby Day..

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Derby Day..

May get to 50-1 if it gets out that I like him

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

May get to 50-1 if it gets out that I like him

I'm not being sarcastic. What is it about this horse that people have liked?

I've never seen it for myself, and I view him as a horse that would clean up state bred money and pick up pieces in open company.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm not being sarcastic. What is it about this horse that people have liked?

I've never seen it for myself, and I view him as a horse that would clean up state bred money and pick up pieces in open company.

Value. Unless I am blown away in the next 2 weeks I see the winner coming out of Fla or Cal preps this year. You can make a case that he could be undefeated as a 3 year old and if you are giving me 15-20 to 1 then there are worse things for me to invest my money in. Of course I reserve the right to change my mind 50 times before they line them up.

[-BT-]

hopefully one of these will be a "golden ticket"


$5 win
Far Right 39-1
Upstart 18-1

$10 win
International Star 17-1
Materiality 12-1

$35 win
Carpe Diem 10-1


-bt-

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:


The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

this would be true, IF every listed horse were to make the gate. If you factor that in to the equation, there really are no good bets in this pool. The odds difference makes it worth waiting for Derby day in case your horse does not run.

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 FINAL ODDS

(No. Horse Trainer P1 P2 P3 P4)

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter (J.Carroll) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
3. Bold Conquest (S.Asmussen) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
4. Bolo (C.Gaines) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/34-1 28-1
5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1
6. Daredevil (T.Pletcher) 48-1/40-1/43-1 39-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1
8. Dubai Sky (W.Mott) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 23-1
9. El Kabeir (J.Terranova) 74-1/39-1/47-1 28-1
10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1
11. Far Right (R.Moquett) 3-5(f)/48-1/30-1 39-1
12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

13. Frosted (K.McLaughlin) 38-1/31-1/4-1(f) 40-1
14. International Star (M.Maker) 3-5(f)/44-1/22-1 17-1
15. Itsaknockout (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/30-1/30-1 53-1
16. Keen Ice (D.Romans) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/27-1 69-1
17. Madefromlucky (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 92-1
18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

19. Mr. Z (W.Lukas) 47-1/ 44-1/44-1 70-1
20. Mubtaahij (M.deKock) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 8-1
21. Prospect Park (C.Sise) 3/5(f)/35-1/26-1 18-1
22. Upstart (R.Violette) 53-1/12-1/15-1 18-1
23. War Story (T.Amoss) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/30-1 41-1
24. Field (all others) (n/a) 3-5/5-2/4-1 11-1

(f) – denotes field entry.

Win pool: $273,017
Exacta pool: $144,456
Total: $417,673
Four-pool aggregate: $1,523,175

[Fulla Sheets]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1

5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1

10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1

12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

Top 6 American horses for the derby: 3 trained by Pletcher, 2 trained by Baffert, and 1 owned by a former Baffert owner.

No problem here

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Fulla Sheets

Top 6 American horses for the derby: 3 trained by Pletcher, 2 trained by Baffert, and 1 owned by a former Baffert owner.

No problem here

Arnold Zetcher (Firing Line) isn't a former Baffert owner, he's a current Baffert owner. He's had horses with Callaghan for a long time.

Those other 5 horses do represent 5 different owners that are well established with their respective trainers in Zayat, Shah, WinStar, Let's Go and Steve Marshall (Black Rock). And to be fair, you're conveniently leaving out the next 3 choices in Upstart (18-1), Int'l Star (18-1) and Prospect Park (17-1), trained/owned by veteran horseman connections in Violette/Evans, Maker/Ramsey and Sise/Wygod.

No one is a bigger critic of the concentration of talent in too few hands, but bigger outfits are going to put potential Classic horses (read stallion prospects) in the hands of Pletcher and Baffert the same way they were being put in the hands of Zito and Lukas.

[Fulla Sheets]

The industry is just top heavy. The best horses are going to go to the owners with the deepest pockets, who will give those horses to the trainers with the highest win percentages. Its just the way it is, but it cant be good.

Zetcher choosing to give Firing Line to Callaghan rather than Baffert should be talked about. Good for him.

[Benny]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/teresage...-the-favorite/

[FATPIANO]

If Upstart is 15-1, I wil be all over him, he is genuine

[bare it all]

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No one is a bigger critic of the concentration of talent in too few hands, but bigger outfits are going to put potential Classic horses (read stallion prospects) in the hands of Pletcher and Baffert the same way they were being put in the hands of Zito and Lukas.

Why? In the past 15 years, Pletcher and Baffert have each won one Derby, despite being annually stocked with the priciest, best-bred talent on their respective coasts. The run of recent Derby winners belies the "need" to put potential Classic horses solely in their hands and has proven that a good horse can thrive when put in the hands of other capable trainers. (The Breeders' Cup annually reinforces the notion as well.)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Why? In the past 15 years, Pletcher and Baffert have each won one Derby, despite being annually stocked with the priciest, best-bred talent on their respective coasts. The run of recent Derby winners belies the "need" to put potential Classic horses solely in their hands and has proven that a good horse can thrive when put in the hands of other capable trainers. (The Breeders' Cup annually reinforces the notion as well.)

No argument from me. I'd like to see a wider spread of talent as much as you do. The 'why' part of the concentration gets back to the 'stallion prospect' aspect. And we have to acknowledge in this discussion that the top barns in question do 'make' stallions in the TC exercise process.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by bare it all

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

i think this is one of the reasons why it's called gambling instead of winning.
one has to expect stuff like this. hell, i had money on a sure win once-the jock fell off at the start. what are you gonna do?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No argument from me. I'd like to see a wider spread of talent as much as you do. The 'why' part of the concentration gets back to the 'stallion prospect' aspect. And we have to acknowledge in this discussion that the top barns in question do 'make' stallions in the TC exercise process.

sad but true

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by bare it all

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think this is one of the reasons why it's called gambling instead of winning.
one has to expect stuff like this. hell, i had money on a sure win once-the jock fell off at the start. what are you gonna do?

Danzig, as you note, with the Future Wager the chance that a horse won't be in the gate on Derby Day is a known factor, and would obviously be included in handicapping the bet. But that doesn't excuse withholding information about current conditions.

However, I don't see anything to indicate that the injury was "Detected Sunday" as the original poster wrote. Pletcher is quoted in the Courier-Journal as saying the injury was detected Monday, which was well after the close of betting for the Future Wager:

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...ured/70717866/

--Dunbar

[bare it all]

Dunbar -

I'm noting Sunday from a quote on Bloodhorse...

""He was walking a little short the day after the work," said Nick Sallusto, racing manager for majority owner Steve Marshall's Black Rock Thoroughbreds."

Perhaps they didn't do an xray or a scan on him until Monday and that's when it was over for his chances.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

are you saying that American Pharoah 5-1 and Dortmund 7-1 is not a good ROI?