George Washington coming now? - Page 2

#21 10-16-2007, 11:47 PM

Seems the wrong track to take this group on.

I think this will be a great race.
Invasor's bad luck has made this interesting.
I will be very excited to get to see this one.

Thunder Gulch · #22 10-17-2007, 10:51 AM

I bought into GW last year to throw him in my exotics, but not again. Danehill's just don't run on the dirt.

King Glorious · #23 10-17-2007, 10:59 AM

There is not a single horse in the Classic that I look at that I don't think has several huge question marks.

Curlin-IMO, the top 3yo this year. Just ran a huge race to beat Lawyer Ron. I think it's reasonable to wonder how much that might have taken out of him having to run so hard and also, keep in mind that he didn't look that great at Monmouth before. I know it was off of the layoff but it still must be considered.

Lawyer Ron-Obviously the top older male this year. As with Curlin, just ran a huge race to run second in the JCGC and one must wonder how much it might have taken out of him. He's also put up three straight 114+ figures and it's not easy to put up four straight for any horse. Don't like the fact that he lost to a horse that he should have beaten when last seen at Monmouth. Also, the expected strategy of letting him roll early might compromise his chances if he gets in a duel with Hard Spun up front.

Street Sense-Is he any better now than he was last year at this time? In last year's BC Juvenile, he ran a 108 figure. His last three have been 105/108/107. This coming after a 111/110 in the Derby and Preakness. He's obviously a good horse and has to be respected but I kind of get the feeling that he's not gotten any better this year. I thought he was being asked in his last and should have beaten Hard Spun but instead, when the real running started, Hard Spun put him away.

Any Given Saturday-Looked like he was ready to take the leap to the head of the class after the Dwyer and Haskell but then took three steps back in the Brooklyn. That was a very disappointing effort and it has to make anyone wonder which horse we'll see in the Classic. Even if it's the Haskell horse, that was a 113 effort; good enough to possibly win this but hardly something that should scare anyone away.

Hard Spun-Has a career high of 109 and I don't think anyone seriously believes that in a truly run race with a legit pace, he has a chance of sticking around at the finish. Lawyer Ron could be right up there with him, compromising the chances of both horses.

Tiago-Was all out to beat Awesome Gem with a 106 figure. While that figure was a career high and came on the heels of a 103 in the Swaps, neither of those figures suggest he's anywhere near the top group. I also think that his efforts in the Derby and Belmont show that same thing and make you wonder if he's just this year's version of Brother Derek; good in California but not so good outside of the state.

With a number of question marks surrounding each of the leading contenders and the prospect that even if they do run their best race, none of them are world beaters, I think now is the perfect time to send a horse like GW to the Classic. No, I do not expect him to win the race. I think that at best, he's looking at third or fourth. But I think it's worth taking a shot. They've got nothing to lose in trying this. His position in the breeding world as a world class miler is set. That would not change even if he were to win the Mile. Another loss in the Classic will not hurt that but I believe that a top five showing here could only enhance his reputation and I don't believe that is an unrealistic goal. I would feel a little different about this if I thought they were passing up a chance to win the Mile by sending him to the Classic but since they already have Excellent Art there, a horse that very well could go off favored, they are in a good position to take this kind of risk.

ArlJim78 · #24 10-17-2007, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

There is not a single horse in the Classic that I look at that I don't think has several huge question marks.

Curlin-IMO, the top 3yo this year. Just ran a huge race to beat Lawyer Ron. I think it's reasonable to wonder how much that might have taken out of him having to run so hard and also, keep in mind that he didn't look that great at Monmouth before. I know it was off of the layoff but it still must be considered.

Lawyer Ron-Obviously the top older male this year. As with Curlin, just ran a huge race to run second in the JCGC and one must wonder how much it might have taken out of him. He's also put up three straight 114+ figures and it's not easy to put up four straight for any horse. Don't like the fact that he lost to a horse that he should have beaten when last seen at Monmouth. Also, the expected strategy of letting him roll early might compromise his chances if he gets in a duel with Hard Spun up front.

Street Sense-Is he any better now than he was last year at this time? In last year's BC Juvenile, he ran a 108 figure. His last three have been 105/108/107. This coming after a 111/110 in the Derby and Preakness. He's obviously a good horse and has to be respected but I kind of get the feeling that he's not gotten any better this year. I thought he was being asked in his last and should have beaten Hard Spun but instead, when the real running started, Hard Spun put him away.

Any Given Saturday-Looked like he was ready to take the leap to the head of the class after the Dwyer and Haskell but then took three steps back in the Brooklyn. That was a very disappointing effort and it has to make anyone wonder which horse we'll see in the Classic. Even if it's the Haskell horse, that was a 113 effort; good enough to possibly win this but hardly something that should scare anyone away.

Hard Spun-Has a career high of 109 and I don't think anyone seriously believes that in a truly run race with a legit pace, he has a chance of sticking around at the finish. Lawyer Ron could be right up there with him, compromising the chances of both horses.

Tiago-Was all out to beat Awesome Gem with a 106 figure. While that figure was a career high and came on the heels of a 103 in the Swaps, neither of those figures suggest he's anywhere near the top group. I also think that his efforts in the Derby and Belmont show that same thing and make you wonder if he's just this year's version of Brother Derek; good in California but not so good outside of the state.

With a number of question marks surrounding each of the leading contenders and the prospect that even if they do run their best race, none of them are world beaters, I think now is the perfect time to send a horse like GW to the Classic. No, I do not expect him to win the race. I think that at best, he's looking at third or fourth. But I think it's worth taking a shot. They've got nothing to lose in trying this. His position in the breeding world as a world class miler is set. That would not change even if he were to win the Mile. Another loss in the Classic will not hurt that but I believe that a top five showing here could only enhance his reputation and I don't believe that is an unrealistic goal. I would feel a little different about this if I thought they were passing up a chance to win the Mile by sending him to the Classic but since they already have Excellent Art there, a horse that very well could go off favored, they are in a good position to take this kind of risk.

none have more questions than George Washington. he'll be up the track.

King Glorious · #25 10-17-2007, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

none have more questions than George Washington. he'll be up the track.

LOL. I suppose that you are right about the first part and could very well be right about the second part. But even if he is, what have they lost? Last year, he was up the track too. But he was far ahead of such horses as Lava Man, Lawyer Ron, Perfect Drift, Sun King, Suave and Flower Alley.

Where would he have to finish, in your opinion, to justify having made this attempt? IMO, a 5-6 in the Classic would be better than a 2-3 in the Mile and a top four in the Classic would trump a Mile win as far as accomplishing what they want to accomplish with him.

Cannon Shell · #26 10-17-2007, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

LOL. I suppose that you are right about the first part and could very well be right about the second part. But even if he is, what have they lost? Last year, he was up the track too. But he was far ahead of such horses as Lava Man, Lawyer Ron, Perfect Drift, Sun King, Suave and Flower Alley.

Where would he have to finish, in your opinion, to justify having made this attempt? IMO, a 5-6 in the Classic would be better than a 2-3 in the Mile and a top four in the Classic would trump a Mile win as far as accomplishing what they want to accomplish with him.

How is finishing 5th or 6th in any race a positive? You think finishing 4th in the classic would be better than winning the mile? I dont understand the logic?

philcski · #27 10-17-2007, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

There is not a single horse in the Classic that I look at that I don't think has several huge question marks.

Curlin-IMO, the top 3yo this year. Just ran a huge race to beat Lawyer Ron. I think it's reasonable to wonder how much that might have taken out of him having to run so hard and also, keep in mind that he didn't look that great at Monmouth before. I know it was off of the layoff but it still must be considered.

Lawyer Ron-Obviously the top older male this year. As with Curlin, just ran a huge race to run second in the JCGC and one must wonder how much it might have taken out of him. He's also put up three straight 114+ figures and it's not easy to put up four straight for any horse. Don't like the fact that he lost to a horse that he should have beaten when last seen at Monmouth. Also, the expected strategy of letting him roll early might compromise his chances if he gets in a duel with Hard Spun up front.

Street Sense-Is he any better now than he was last year at this time? In last year's BC Juvenile, he ran a 108 figure. His last three have been 105/108/107. This coming after a 111/110 in the Derby and Preakness. He's obviously a good horse and has to be respected but I kind of get the feeling that he's not gotten any better this year. I thought he was being asked in his last and should have beaten Hard Spun but instead, when the real running started, Hard Spun put him away.

Any Given Saturday-Looked like he was ready to take the leap to the head of the class after the Dwyer and Haskell but then took three steps back in the Brooklyn. That was a very disappointing effort and it has to make anyone wonder which horse we'll see in the Classic. Even if it's the Haskell horse, that was a 113 effort; good enough to possibly win this but hardly something that should scare anyone away.

Hard Spun-Has a career high of 109 and I don't think anyone seriously believes that in a truly run race with a legit pace, he has a chance of sticking around at the finish. Lawyer Ron could be right up there with him, compromising the chances of both horses.

Tiago-Was all out to beat Awesome Gem with a 106 figure. While that figure was a career high and came on the heels of a 103 in the Swaps, neither of those figures suggest he's anywhere near the top group. I also think that his efforts in the Derby and Belmont show that same thing and make you wonder if he's just this year's version of Brother Derek; good in California but not so good outside of the state.

With a number of question marks surrounding each of the leading contenders and the prospect that even if they do run their best race, none of them are world beaters, I think now is the perfect time to send a horse like GW to the Classic. No, I do not expect him to win the race. I think that at best, he's looking at third or fourth. But I think it's worth taking a shot. They've got nothing to lose in trying this. His position in the breeding world as a world class miler is set. That would not change even if he were to win the Mile. Another loss in the Classic will not hurt that but I believe that a top five showing here could only enhance his reputation and I don't believe that is an unrealistic goal. I would feel a little different about this if I thought they were passing up a chance to win the Mile by sending him to the Classic but since they already have Excellent Art there, a horse that very well could go off favored, they are in a good position to take this kind of risk.

KG, I think you're reading too much into the Beyers published. The fact of the matter is they're wrong these days; Lawyer Ron ran MUCH faster than the published numbers at Saratoga then came back to a more "normal" level at Belmont (which was adjusted UPWARDS.)

About the only thing I agree on speed figure wise is Tiago probably isn't fast enough to win unless he improves 4-5 lengths. Very likely candidate to finish 3rd or 4th.

King Glorious · #28 10-17-2007, 11:57 AM

They are sending over the possible favorite for the Mile in Excellent Art. That's probably a big factor in the decision. The second is that they have made it no secret that they would love to have a Danehill runner that has some success on the dirt. Why do you think they brought Dylan Thomas over for the JCGC last year? What do you think they ran Oratorio in the Classic a couple of years ago? Both of those runners would have had very good chances in the grass races but instead, they were run on dirt. The Coolmore operation looks at the bigger picture instead of just trying to win a trophy. They aren't in the racing for the purse of winning the Mile. They are going to try again with him in the shed and even if he didn't win, imagine if he finished in front of Street Sense or Curlin and it could be mentioned on his resume that he was not only one of the top grass milers in the world but also versatile enough to beat out an American classic winner on the dirt? Sometimes, there are bigger pictures than just trying to find the best spot to win.

blackthroatedwind · #29 10-17-2007, 12:03 PM

You seem to be confused......George Washington already failed in the shed.

Perhaps you are suggesting a win in the Classic will give him the confidence he needs with the ladies?

By the way, while you are certainly entitled to think every member of the Classic field has holes, as all horses do, to suggest that ALL members of the field will show their supposed weaknesses in this one race is near impossible.

Cannon Shell · #30 10-17-2007, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

They are sending over the possible favorite for the Mile in Excellent Art. That's probably a big factor in the decision. The second is that they have made it no secret that they would love to have a Danehill runner that has some success on the dirt. Why do you think they brought Dylan Thomas over for the JCGC last year? What do you think they ran Oratorio in the Classic a couple of years ago? Both of those runners would have had very good chances in the grass races but instead, they were run on dirt. The Coolmore operation looks at the bigger picture instead of just trying to win a trophy. They aren't in the racing for the purse of winning the Mile. They are going to try again with him in the shed and even if he didn't win, imagine if he finished in front of Street Sense or Curlin and it could be mentioned on his resume that he was not only one of the top grass milers in the world but also versatile enough to beat out an American classic winner on the dirt? Sometimes, there are bigger pictures than just trying to find the best spot to win.

I'm guessing that finishing ahead of SS or Curlin while finishing 5th will not be an incentive for anyone to breed to him especially with his problems. He is still by Danehill who has had so little dirt success that any son of his will always be looked at with questions until the horse in question proves otherwise.

King Glorious · #31 10-17-2007, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You seem to be confused......George Washington already failed in the shed.

Perhaps you are suggesting a win in the Classic will give him the confidence he needs with the ladies?

By the way, while you are certainly entitled to think every member of the Classic field has holes, as all horses do, to suggest that ALL members of the field will show their supposed weaknesses in this one race is near impossible.

I'm not suggesting that they all would. But out of those six, it's conceivable that any combination of one or more could. I remember last year going through this same conversation and if anyone would have posted that GW would end up finishing ahead of Lava Man, Sun King, Perfect Drift and Lawyer Ron then, I imagine that the response would have been pretty much the same as it is now.

What I am still asking of anyone is what they have to lose by trying it? I think several questions should be asked.

1-What would be gained by winning the Mile?
2-What would be lost by losing the Mile?
3-What would be gained by winning the Classic?
4-What would be lost by losing the Classic?

IMO, the answers are:
1-nothing
2-stature
3-stature (and it wouldn't even take a win)
4-nothing

miraja2 · #32 10-17-2007, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benevolus

He is the only returning horse from last year's classic and appears to be the only older horse (other than Lawyer Ron) who is going to run.

The most interesting thing though is these guys don't just enter horses for fun. They must think he can atleast hit the board. His chances are significantly higher than some of the horses that have come from overseas and run big races ($200 payout one year I believe). The only thing I don't like about him is he probably will be overbet because of his name recognition and being the only european in there. It wouldn't shock me at all if he won. I can't say I am overly impressed with anything in the race.

Lawyer Ron- looked average over Monmouth track
Curlin- Not getting by the filly makes me wonder
Street Sense- Not that tough outside Churchill
Hard Spun- Don't think he wants the distance (although GW might not either)
AGS- great effort at Monmouth, but last was slow
Tiago-has to beat a top horse somewhere

GW- probably won't like the distance, but it would be no shock to me with this field.

For what it is worth, he isn't the "only horse returning from last year's Classic." Lawyer Ron ran last year too.
Furthermore, I fail to see how the fact that he ran in the race last year makes him at all interesting this year. If Flower Alley suddenly came out of retirement and entered the Classic, would he be even more interesting interesting because this would be his third straight year? I don't think so.
I hope GW goes. He would be the definition of a toss.

Cannon Shell · #33 10-17-2007, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not suggesting that they all would. But out of those six, it's conceivable that any combination of one or more could. I remember last year going through this same conversation and if anyone would have posted that GW would end up finishing ahead of Lava Man, Sun King, Perfect Drift and Lawyer Ron then, I imagine that the response would have been pretty much the same as it is now.

What I am still asking of anyone is what they have to lose by trying it? I think several questions should be asked.

1-What would be gained by winning the Mile?
2-What would be lost by losing the Mile?
3-What would be gained by winning the Classic?
4-What would be lost by losing the Classic?

IMO, the answers are:
1-nothing
2-stature
3-stature (and it wouldn't even take a win)
4-nothing

So winning the BC mile means nothing? GW has done SO much that winning the BC mile is no big deal? The truth is that he probably cant win either race based upon his form this year and the dirt is a built in excuse.

ArlJim78 · #34 10-17-2007, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

LOL. I suppose that you are right about the first part and could very well be right about the second part. But even if he is, what have they lost? Last year, he was up the track too. But he was far ahead of such horses as Lava Man, Lawyer Ron, Perfect Drift, Sun King, Suave and Flower Alley.

Where would he have to finish, in your opinion, to justify having made this attempt? IMO, a 5-6 in the Classic would be better than a 2-3 in the Mile and a top four in the Classic would trump a Mile win as far as accomplishing what they want to accomplish with him.

i don't question the decision to run him in the classic, not all connections would make the same decision but its their call to make. i'm just predicting that it will be a back of the pack finish. and as far as the list of horses that he finished in front of last year, we now know that Lawyer Ron was at his low point in that race, and not at all what he is capable of, and the others are no great shakes by any means, even the immortal LavaMan. on the flip side he was beaten by Giacomo and Brother Derek last year, so what does that tell you? he is not as prepared this year, not in the same form as last, running on a surface that he hasn't performed well on, and shipping in from Europe to boot.

King Glorious · #35 10-17-2007, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

So winning the BC mile means nothing? GW has done SO much that winning the BC mile is no big deal? The truth is that he probably cant win either race based upon his form this year and the dirt is a built in excuse.

I think for a horse like GW who's already won a 2000 Guineas and the QE II, winning the Mile wouldn't be that important. I think it's far more important for a horse like Excellent Art to win it because he doesn't have that career defining world class win on his record.

Of course winning the Mile would be a big deal but I don't think it would be a bigger deal to them than the possibility of standing a Danehill that was able to have some dirt success and in this case, I don't think that success has to necessarily come in a win. A good showing, possibly beating some of America's best dirt horses, would go a long way.

King Glorious · #36 10-17-2007, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i don't question the decision to run him in the classic, not all connections would make the same decision but its their call to make. i'm just predicting that it will be a back of the pack finish. and as far as the list of horses that he finished in front of last year, we now know that Lawyer Ron was at his low point in that race, and not at all what he is capable of, and the others are no great shakes by any means, even the immortal LavaMan. on the flip side he was beaten by Giacomo and Brother Derek last year, so what does that tell you? he is not as prepared this year, not in the same form as last, running on a surface that he hasn't performed well on, and shipping in from Europe to boot.

There is no question that the deck is stacked against him and it's more than likely that he finishes closer to the back of the field than the front. I get that. But I also can totally understand the decision to try it and I think if I was in their position, I would try it too. If GW's position as a world class miler wasn't already secured and if they didn't have Excellent Art for the Mile, I would say that would be the race for him. My argument is not in favor of his chances of winning or running big here. My argument was in response to the question of why.

Cannon Shell · #37 10-17-2007, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think for a horse like GW who's already won a 2000 Guineas and the QE II, winning the Mile wouldn't be that important. I think it's far more important for a horse like Excellent Art to win it because he doesn't have that career defining world class win on his record.

Of course winning the Mile would be a big deal but I don't think it would be a bigger deal to them than the possibility of standing a Danehill that was able to have some dirt success and in this case, I don't think that success has to necessarily come in a win. A good showing, possibly beating some of America's best dirt horses, would go a long way.

The fact that they have the other horse in the mile seems to be the only logical reason to run him in the classic.\

I have yet to see a horse who didn't win or finish a close second like G Causeway get any stallion value out of the race. Finishing a distant 4th and beating SS or Curlin will just be considered a fluke anyway. I guess he needs a miracle to revive his stud career anyway.

Pedigree Ann · #38 10-17-2007, 12:42 PM

The BC folks said that the new BC Mile wouldn't affect the Classic, but I think we can all see that it has. Hard Spun and Lawyer Ron like to be forwardly placed but (this year for the most part) neither absolutely needs to be in front going fast. If those two go to the front and canter along together in :24 and :49, you can go cash your exacta.

NoChanceToDance · #39 10-17-2007, 01:29 PM

I agree with what KG is saying here. Winning the mile wouldn't be a big deal for GW and the Coolmore team. He has rpved (if not this year) that he is a top horse over a mile on Turf. Besides they already own the winner of this year's race...... Excellent Art.

However, if GW was to race in the mile and was soundly beaten (distinct possibilityof that happening) people would be very disappointed. Getting beaten (i.e. not hitting the board) in the mile would be a terrible for both horse and operation. He isn't completely useless in the breeding shed, and i have a funny feeling that they will give him another go again.

Running in the classic is a gain/not lose situation. Everyone is writing off his chances. If he finishes last they can say he just didn't act on the dirt, and no one will really mind as he isn't expected to do well. If he goes and wins or hits the board (both would be a big shock to nearly everyone) that would be some achievment and many will forget about his below average runs that he has had so far this season.

Coolmore might as well throw cautiuon at the wind by running him the Classic. I don't think he has a chance, but what do they have to lose with him on dirt? Nothing.

I cannot have Street Sense on my mind for this race and i will be laying him heavily come BC day. Like KG, i don't believe he is any better than he was last year. Although his last run was just a "prep" i was very disappointed with that. Hard Spun did him easily, i don't care about the easy lead he got, he still managed to pull away from him when Street Sense was being asked some serious questions, whereas Pino didn't have to get as serious on Hard Spun.

AeWingnut · #40 10-17-2007, 01:39 PM

I remember GW was completely washed out last year. He kept wondering why they weren't walking over to the grass course. He's a complete toss.
I will be shocked and poor if he gets in the superfecta