Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 03-15-2018, 10:13 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,248
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by taxicab View Post
So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ?
Wasn't the Derby Future Wager this past weekend a referendum on the topic?

This was how the betting closed among the three:

Justify 6.20-1
Bolt 7.10-1
McKenzie 9.40-1
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 03-15-2018, 11:36 PM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Wasn't the Derby Future Wager this past weekend a referendum on the topic?

This was how the betting closed among the three:

Justify 6.20-1
Bolt 7.10-1
McKenzie 9.40-1
This is a good point.
I was aware of the Derby finals for pool two when I posted.
I'm basing my opinion on how I've seen the public bet over the years in a certain situation.
And yes, I think it's a fair point to say that if the public likes Justify in the Derby future 2.........they would make him the chalk @ SA.
But I also think the Derby futures speculators are assuming Justify cruises in his final Derby prep.........he may very well,but with his two race resume I just don't think he'd do it as the chalk if Bolt/McKinzie were in the same race.
I'll add on here....
I'm pretty sure Justify isn't going to FLA.........but I wonder if he'd be favored against that bunch over the Gulfstream oval ?
More: I can see Justify rolling in his final Derby prep...........but I believe in the Derby his lack of seasoning will catch up with him.
And I'll be curious how Mr. White(I think he still makes the ML @ SA)sorts out his line.....
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 03-16-2018, 02:23 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,248
Default

Though not involved in the ownership directly, Justify breeder John Gunther tweeting that Arkansas Derby is the target..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 03-18-2018, 06:15 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,248
Default

Louisiana Derby

1) Bravazo 7-2 - Gary Stevens
2) Noble Indy 7-2 - John Velazquez
3) Marmello 50-1 - Jack Gilligan
4) Givemeaminit 20-1 - Javier Castellano
5) Retirement Fund 12-1 - Shaun Bridgmohan
6) Hyndford 8-1 - Joe Bravo
7) Snapper Sinclair 9-2 - Jose Ortiz
8) Lone Sailor 20-1 - James Graham
9) My Boy Jack 5-2 - Kent Desormeaux
10) Dark Templar 12-1 - Florent Geroux
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 03-18-2018, 06:29 PM
casp0555's Avatar
casp0555 casp0555 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Humble,Texas
Posts: 18,884
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Louisiana Derby

1) Bravazo 7-2 - Gary Stevens
2) Noble Indy 7-2 - John Velazquez
3) Marmello 50-1 - Jack Gilligan
4) Givemeaminit 20-1 - Javier Castellano
5) Retirement Fund 12-1 - Shaun Bridgmohan
6) Hyndford 8-1 - Joe Bravo
7) Snapper Sinclair 9-2 - Jose Ortiz
8) Lone Sailor 20-1 - James Graham
9) My Boy Jack 5-2 - Kent Desormeaux
10) Dark Templar 12-1 - Florent Geroux
mixing him in a little hope the 8-1 holds up
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 03-18-2018, 07:39 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,248
Default

Solomini to the Wood per Zayats..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 03-18-2018, 08:25 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by casp0555 View Post
mixing him in a little hope the 8-1 holds up
I think you get all of that.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 03-21-2018, 06:36 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,248
Default

At least 19 want to run Sunday.. First preference is graded stakes earnings; Second is highest lifetime earnings.

3/25/18 ~ Sunland Derby (1 1/8M) Sunland Park (50-20-10-5)

1. All Out Blitz, Martin Garcia
2. Dark Vader, Stewart Elliott
3. New York Central, Ricardo Santana, Jr.
4. Hollywood Star, Robby Albarado
5. Peace, Drayden Van Dyke
6. Shane Zain, Terry Thompson
7. Prince Lucky, John Velazquez
8. Seven Trumpets, Luis Contreras
9. Choo Choo, Mario Gutierrez
10. Dream Baby Dream, Alfredo Juarez, Jr.
11. Runaway Ghost, Tracy Hebert
12. Fortified Effort, Ry Eikleberry

Excluded from field: Restoring Hope, Hyndford, Trigger Warning, Trooper, Sphene and Bocefus.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 03-21-2018 at 04:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 03-21-2018, 08:03 AM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,744
Default

3/25/18 ~ Sunland Derby (1 1/8M) Sunland Park (50-20-10-5)

Peace(Mandella)


Mandella seems to have a lot of faith in this one. Especially going off of two weeks.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 03-21-2018, 07:17 PM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

Just one man’s take but I went from very uninspired about the Kentucky Derby to frothing out of the mouth for it to come.

Seemingly overnight.

I don’t know if it has anything (or all) to do with Justify’s emergence to the scene or if it was the stretch drive between Bolt & McKinzie. Just seems with each passing weekend lately, i’ve grown more fond for this crop as a whole.

All i know is that all of a sudden, I caught a major case of the Derby Fever. It’s on a much smaller scale than the type that owners of hopeless longshot’s sometimes catch.

My top 5 as of today’s snow day:

1) Good Magic
2) Bolt D’Oro
3) McKinzie
4) Justify
5) Greyvitos
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital"

- Nathan Israel
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 03-22-2018, 08:10 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

"9. Solomini Bob Baffert 14 $616,000"

A typo--it should be 34 points.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 03-25-2018, 02:21 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,935
Default

You can always count on some dreck to fill up the field.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 03-26-2018, 01:00 PM
XIIPointStables XIIPointStables is offline
Washington Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 858
Default

Any word on Nero for Baffert?
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 03-26-2018, 01:38 PM
joeydb's Avatar
joeydb joeydb is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Southeastern PA
Posts: 3,044
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by richard burch View Post
Good thread...easy to track the contenders as races are finished. Not really seeing a standout horse out of these so far but it's early.
I agree - this is a good format for tracking the Derby contenders. Good job Steve.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 03-26-2018, 03:29 PM
declansharbor's Avatar
declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Exit 30
Posts: 6,357
Default

End of March and one of the favorites for 5/5 has yet to run in a race that has Derby Points attached to it.

Has to be a first, no?
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital"

- Nathan Israel
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 03-26-2018, 11:08 PM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
FL Derby steadily filling.. 9 now expected.

Audible (Pletcher)
Catholic Boy (Thomas)
Promises Fulfilled (Romans)
Storm Runner (Romans)
Strike Power (Hennig)
Tip Sheet (Gold)
Mississippi (Casse)
Millionaire Runner (Mejia)
Speed Franco (Delgado)

I imagine the folks at Keenland will be watching this race quite closely.
It might not be a reach to think that Promises Fulfilled & Mississippi fill in 2/3rds of the trifecta Saturday.
Suddenly the connections of Audible/Catholic Boy/Strike Power might be eyeballing the Lexington Stakes{now worth more Derby points}.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 03-27-2018, 03:30 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by XIIPointStables View Post
Any word on Nero for Baffert?
Hopefully the goal is the Woody Stephens.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 03-27-2018, 08:26 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,248
Default

Back to 10!

FL Derby

Audible (Pletcher)
Catholic Boy (Thomas)
Promises Fulfilled (Romans)
Storm Runner (Romans)
Strike Power (Hennig)
Tip Sheet (Gold)
Mississippi (Casse)
Millionaire Runner (Mejia)
Speed Franco (Delgado)
Hofburg (Mott)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 03-27-2018, 08:28 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,935
Default

I believe Speed Franco is out. Hard to believe, as he looked great on paper.

Odd move by Mott rushing Hofburg. Hard to believe Juddmonte is pushing him but I guess anything is possible. Good horse but unlikely to get a major piece here.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 03-27-2018, 11:57 PM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

Mississippi.........he's the mystery horse to me.
I've always thought he's wildly talented...........just haven't seen much of him.
Considering how lightly raced he is,the FLA Derby sure is a tough spot for him.
I just don't see Casse ever run his horses where they don't belong,he must have something with this Colt.
Giant ownership line don't ya know.
Noble Indy flattered him.
Storm Runner didn't.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:45 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.