Summer Bird could be HOY

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

You are most wrong sir.

There are illogical cases, cases not well thought out, nonsensical cases, etc in which SB is the better horse.

There are also cases in which RA never beat SB, as well as cases in which SB actually did win the Haskell.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

80%

Seriously..I hope you are right.. Consider he has won the Travers Belmont JCGC second to Rachel in the Haskell. IF??? he wins the Classic those odds go way down. Saw him at Monmouth and he is a very nice looking sort, apparently Birdstones are now in favor, I think he gets 100 mares at 20k(advertised) as well. Again I really hope he comes back at 4 they all should. If the friggin industry had ballz they would encourage them racing at 4. Perhaps NTRA could/would/should offer prepaid insurance to race thru 4 instead of this win and your in BS.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Seriously..I hope you are right.. Consider he has won the Travers Belmont JCGC second to Rachel in the Haskell. IF??? he wins the Classic those odds go way down. Saw him at Monmouth and he is a very nice looking sort, apparently Birdstones are now in favor, I think he gets 100 mares at 20k(advertised) as well. Again I really hope he comes back at 4 they all should. If the friggin industry had ballz they would encourage them racing at 4. Perhaps NTRA could/would/should offer prepaid insurance to race thru 4 instead of this win and your in BS.

I have no info that says otherwise but havent heard a peep about anyone standing this horse. 2 years ago? He would have already been signed and sealed. Would be nice to see some of the better 3yos next year so we can have a good older horse division again.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

80%

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by philcski

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

Yeah I don't see how they could afford to rush anybody off to stud unless they were some royal blue blood too fragile to risk it horse. All the better for us.

From what I could see of him coming back to the winner's circle (check the Bloodhorse video, they've got 5+ minutes including the race) he sure has the look I've always liked, not the compact muscle-bound thing some go for. It's more old school which is fitting because his trainer's got that vibe for all his newness at this level. I want SB to keep going especially so that Tim Ice can have him for another year. I think if ever a guy deserved to have a horse like that come back, it's Tim. It'd be another opportunity to showcase handling a top horse and get some more owners involved with his operation.

As much as I like SB, and I like him a lot, I just don't see him getting HOY over The Anointed One aka Rachel. I see her letting Calvin put her wherever he wants to at whatever speed he needs to to beat SB, she's that tractable. That's part of what makes her so amazing, and they all know it. Tim's flat out said she deserved it hasn't he? I could've sworn he said it on At the Races, or certainly implied it.

[jballscalls]

Summer Bird has had an amazing year and most years would be a serious serious candidate for horse of the year. He just happened to run in the same year as a 3 year old filly who is 8 for 8 and beat boys 3 times in grade 1's.

He is probably the favorite for the place spot in the horse of the year balloting though, with Zenyatta in the show spot if she wins out.

[Round Pen]

I realize it will never happen But lets See RA and SB run Against each other Going a Mile and a 1/4 I don't think she can beat him.

IF you think the Synthetic surface is the only reason RA is staying away from the BC you are sadly mistaken. Although it is not the Main reason but the distance of the Classic was a concern

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

I realize it will never happen But lets See RA and SB run Against each other Going a Mile and a 1/4 I don't think she can beat him. IF you think the Synthetic surface is the only reason RA is staying away from the BC you are sadly mistaken. Although it is not the Main reason but the distance of the Classic was a concern

i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

Dr. J has been approached and is in most serious conversation with Gainesway and Stonewall. Many others have contacted him as well.

Only an injury would prevent Summer Bird from running as a 4 year old.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Dr. J has been approached and is in most serious conversation with Gainesway and Stonewall. Many others have contacted him as well.

Only an injury would prevent Summer Bird from running as a 4 year old.

Steve it is always an injury that keeps them from racing at 4..lol

You think if he wins the Classic he won't have a micro fraction 3 weeks later? lol

[CSC]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

Your post is the most spot on in this thread, it's a distortion to think RA is 10 lengths better than SB at this point of time had they both run yesterday. One horse is getting better with maturity and the other may be showing signs of tailing off, I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there, 8 weeks between races is more than enough time to have a fresh horse ready for the BC Classic especially for a trainer of Asmussen's capabilities. It's all conjecture what would have happened if she faced Summer Bird yesterday, my humble opinion I think she would have been up against it, Kent D was quoted there was more left in the tank if he needed it against QR and for Beyer backers it was only a 111 he ran yesterday, more than enough to give her a headache than the 107 she ran in the Woodward a race 1 furlong shorter.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there

Just for the sake of asking, why do you say that? Why is it hard to believe that he is sticking to what he said three months ago, before she "showed signs of tailing off?"

The man is keeping his word -- you doubting his intentions doesn't change that. He said he wasn't going to SA LONG before Summer Bird became this "monster" that he should be afraid of. Actually, didn't he say he wouldn't be going even before she waxed Summer Bird the first time around?

So what makes you think his thoughts are anything other than what he's stated since the very beginning?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

Your post is the most spot on in this thread, it's a distortion to think RA is 10 lengths better than SB at this point of time had they both run yesterday. One horse is getting better with maturity and the other may be showing signs of tailing off, I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there, 8 weeks between races is more than enough time to have a fresh horse ready for the BC Classic especially for a trainer of Asmussen's capabilities. It's all conjecture what would have happened if she faced Summer Bird yesterday, my humble opinion I think she would have been up against it, Kent D was quoted there was more left in the tank if he needed it against QR and for Beyer backers it was only a 111 he ran yesterday, more than enough to give her a headache than the 107 she ran in the Woodward a race 1 furlong shorter.

Jess wouldn't have run her at Santa Anita if they told him he was to die the day after the race. Regressing.. respectfully she went to 7 tracks faced colts twice then older..Kicked ass and took the balance of the year off when Zenyatta bailed on Beldame..PERIOD.. She is a filly have a heart she only beat Summer Bird by 7 you think he was closing the last 1/8th or dead tired from chasing a pace he couldn't possibly stay on to.. Also Ice thinking that his colt was short for the Haskell and didn't have enough bottom (Byk you can't possibly buy this??) Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Just for the sake of asking, why do you say that? Why is it hard to believe that he is sticking to what he said three months ago, before she "showed signs of tailing off?"

The man is keeping his word -- you doubting his intentions doesn't change that. He said he wasn't going to SA LONG before Summer Bird became this "monster" that he should be afraid of. Actually, didn't he say he wouldn't be going even before she waxed Summer Bird the first time around?

So what makes you think his thoughts are anything other than what he's stated since the very beginning?

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Jess wouldn't have run her at Santa Anita if they told him he was to die the day after the race. Regressing.. respectfully she went to 7 tracks faced colts twice then older..Kicked ass and took the balance of the year off when Zenyatta bailed on Beldame..PERIOD.. She is a filly have a heart she only beat Summer Bird by 7 you think he was closing the last 1/8th or dead tired from chasing a pace he couldn't possibly stay on to.. Also Ice thinking that his colt was short for the Haskell and didn't have enough bottom (Byk you can't possibly buy this??) Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

I know she wouldn't have beaten him by 7 yesterday if at all, I was the one that posted and had wished she would have run in the JCGC, if they couldn't meet in the BC. It's on dirt you know... Now that she hasn't, I guess she can always claim she has beaten SB in the Haskell as the final chapter.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

I know that this sort of statement has reached the level of "urban legend" by now, but can we please stop this "she set a ridiculous pace" nonsense? Yes, the fractions that she set were fast for a 3YO filly, but she was running in a Grade I race for older horses going 9F at Saratoga. In that historical context, her opening quarter was fast, but her first half and 6F splits were about "average" for such races at Saratoga this decade (and there were 9F races run by NY-breds such as Future Prospect and Fiddlers Afleet this year that were faster to the half).

2002 Whitney (Left Bank): 23.0, 45.4, 1:09.1

2003 Whitney (Medaglia D'oro): 23.2, 46.4, 1:10.2

2004 Whitney (Roses In May): 22.3, 45.1, 1:08.4

2005 Whitney (Commentator): 23.2, 46.2, 1:09.3 (Ironically, many of the same people who have tried to knock Commentator on this board by arguing that he got away with soft fractions in his match-up with Saint Liam are stating that Rachel Alexandra survived a suicidal pace.)

2006 Whitney (Invasor): 23.0, 47.0, 1:11.1

2006 Woodward (Premium Tap): 23.3, 47.1, 1:11.4

2007 Whitney (Lawyer Ron): 23.4, 47.1, 1:10.1

2007 Woodward (Lawyer Ron): 23.1, 46.2, 1:10.2

2008 Whitney (Commentator): 24.0, 47.3, 1:11.4

2008 Woodward (Curlin): 22.4, 46.1, 1:09.3

2009 Whitney (Bullsbay): 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.0

2009 Woodward (Rachel Alexandra): 22.4, 46.2, 1:10.2

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think at most he would would have reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

Do you remember last year?

Whether you want to blame Robby for a premature move or not, he insisted that Curlin wouldn't go out West, for the same reason. He gave in, even though he never wanted to go out there, and the horse lost to some turf horses from Europe.

Gee, I wonder why he wouldn't be jumping out of his pants to have another go round at it. I'm baffled. It must be the extra furlong....