More relatively meidocre performances by our turf and synthetic horses in Dubai

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Considering the way they ran in the 1 1/2m turf race, there should really be no doubt that Little Mike goes to the Dubai Sheema Classic.

American based horses are 59-0-3-0 in Dubai World Cup races at greater than six furlongs on either turf or tapeta.

And honestly, I was shocked that they've performed that well. It feels like they're like 0 for 400 and The Tin Man was the only one top 3.

It's not like we only send bad horses either. Half of those horses are like a freaking who's who of some of our best turf and synthetic horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Record of American horses on World Cup day.

Dubai World Cup on dirt: 48-9-9-7
Dubai World Cup on Syn: 8-0-0-0 (Royal Delta and Game On Dude finished 9th and 12th as our lone two starters last year)

Godolphin Mile dirt: 26-5-3-2
Godolphin Mile syn: 7-0-0-0

Golden Shaheen Sprint dirt: 39-9-8-5
Golden Shaheen Sprint Syn: 6-1-1-1

UAE Derby Dirt: 16-4-3-2
UAE Derby SYN: 1-0-0-0

All dirt races: 129-27-23-16
All SYN races: 22-1-1-1
All Turf races: 43-0-3-0

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

American based horses are 59-0-3-0 in Dubai World Cup races at greater than six furlongs on either turf or tapeta.

And honestly, I was shocked that they've performed that well. It feels like they're like 0 for 400 and The Tin Man was the only one top 3.

It's not like we only send bad horses either. Half of those horses are like a freaking who's who of some of our best turf and synthetic horses.

The Tin Man, Hard Buck and who else came second?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by brockguy

The Tin Man, Hard Buck and who else came second?

Whilly.

He won back to back Stakes at Santa Anita, including the Gr 2 San Marcos in his prior start.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Whilly.

He won back to back Stakes at Santa Anita, including the Gr 2 San Marcos in his prior start.

Thanks - you would have thought with some of the (extremely) bizarre results we see on World Cup night that a US horse hasn't fluked a win on turf or on Tapeta in the Godolphin Mile or World Cup.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Thanks - you would have thought with some of the (extremely) bizarre results we see on World Cup night that a US horse hasn't fluked a win on turf or on Tapeta in the Godolphin Mile or World Cup.

Animal Kingdom might be the right kind of horse to run well for us. He handles all surfaces and his trainer (like Gio Ponti's trainer) has a European background. I still would bet against him though.

If it was still 10 furlongs on dirt at Nad Al Sheba ... horses like Game On Dude and Fort Larned would probably light up anything you can find in Europe. I'd have loved to be in your country if they ever met up with Frankel in a dirt race. As great as Frankel definitely was, you probably could have made a killing of a lifetime going around and fading him in such a hypothetical match-up.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Animal Kingdom might be the right kind of horse to run well for us. He handles all surfaces and his trainer (like Gio Ponti's trainer) has a European background. I still would bet against him though.

If it was still 10 furlongs on dirt at Nad Al Sheba ... horses like Game On Dude and Fort Larned would probably light up anything you can find in Europe. I'd have loved to be in your country if they ever met up with Frankel in a dirt race. As great as Frankel definitely was, you probably could have made a killing of a lifetime going around and fading him in such a hypothetical match-up.

I fully agree with you on that - Frankel, as good as he was is bred not to run a lick on dirt and would have been a huge play against on dirt. Seeing how well Dylan Thomas ran on dirt permanently convinced me on that...

The thing I love about the Breeders Cup is that I pretty much have the choice between the Pari Mutuel (generally Euro horses) and Betfair (pretty much all US horses) so it just helps so much in making a profit. In last years Breeders Cup Classic for example 11 of the 12 horses (To Honor and Serve the exception) went off a higher price on the Betfair starting price than the Pari Mutuel.

[Dahoss]

Just want to add I've enjoyed reading this conversation. Some sharp guys discussing racing.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

UAE Derby Dirt: 16-4-3-2
UAE Derby SYN: 1-0-0-0

This is a fairly liberal interpretation of "American horses" - I'd often consider ONLY horses that were regularly stabled in the US and just shipped over with the expressed consent of running on the World Cup card. By that estimate, I don't think any US horse has ever won the UAE Derby, some of those Godolphin winners counted as winners here likely shipped over well in advance of their performances.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Thanks - you would have thought with some of the (extremely) bizarre results we see on World Cup night that a US horse hasn't fluked a win on turf or on Tapeta in the Godolphin Mile or World Cup.

The home team has won every edition of the Godolphin Mile and likely will again this year - they specifically go after some of these synth loving types that have no value elsewhere. Most American horses to run in the race are square-pegged to a round hole for it, cause they wouldn't make the DWC.

[PatCummings]

The better question - why would ANYONE be interested in backing US horses in Dubai at short prices. Here are the odds of US runners on World Cup night the last three years - with one win to their credit. ROI would be $0.43

3-2
9-2 - Kinsale King $11.40
8-1
10-1
4-1
3-1
3-1
7-1
9-2
16-1
9-1
20-1
7-2
23-1
2-1
10-1
9-1
5-1
4-1
12-1
4-1
7-2
8-1
2-1
9-2
7-2

The bolded were odds from just 2012...clearly no one is learning.

[cmorioles]

It could even be argued the lone winner was a massive underlay.

[brockguy]

Pat, interesting to see.

For comparison, here are both Betfair SP prices and Industry (Bookmakers) odds for those US horses last year -

World Cup (we had our own issues here as So You Think was punted off the boards into 5/4!)
Royal Delta - 7.46/1 - 10/1
Game on Dude - 10.67/1 - 8/1

Golden Shaheen
Giant Ryan - 22.09/1 - 16/1
The Factor - 6.7/1 - 4/1

Al Quoz Sprint
Regally Ready - 21.81/1 - 20/1

UAE Derby
Lucky Chappy - 10.71/1 - 11/1

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

This is a fairly liberal interpretation of "American horses" -

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I don't think any US horse has ever won the UAE Derby,

We've been over this before Pat ... and look, I understand that you have to try and be a shill for Dubai.

No US horse has ever won the UAE Derby?

#1: Express Tour: Every single one of his 4 career start before he won the UAE Derby was at Calder. Every single start after he won the UAE Derby was made in the United States.

You are the only person in the world with an IQ over 100 who thinks Express Tour wasn't a US horse.

#2: Essence Of Dubai: ALL of his races at age 2 came in the United States. He broke his maiden at Hollywood. Was 3rd in the Best Pal. Won the Norfolk. Raced in the Breeders Cup.

#3: Discreet Cat: He won his debut at Saratoga for trainer Stanley Hough in jaw dropping fashion. Sure, the Arabs shelled out seven figures for him, but he's an American horse.

#4: Regal Ransom: He also broke his maiden at Saratoga and he competed in the Norfolk Stakes. He came from the Calder 2-year-old in training sale.

All four of these horses raced exclusively in the USA as 2-year-olds and were based here the whole year. That means, going into the UAE Derby, March of their 3yo season, they're considered American horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

The home team has won every edition of the Godolphin Mile and likely will again this year - they specifically go after some of these synth loving types that have no value elsewhere. Most American horses to run in the race are square-pegged to a round hole for it, cause they wouldn't make the DWC.

Godolphin Mile winning American horses:

* Grey Memo: Trained by Warren Stute -- 52 of his 54 career starts came in the United States. He twice shipped to Dubai, once winning the Godolphin Mile and once 2nd in the Godolphin Mile.

* Spring At Last: Trained by Doug O'Neill, he made 12 of his 13 career starts in the USA. His only start outside of the USA was a Godolphin Mile win.

* Diamond Stripes: Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. 15 of his 16 career starts came in the United States. Only race outside of the USA was his Godolphin Mile win.

* Two Step Salsa: All 8 of his first 8 career starts came in the USA in 2008. He won the Godolphin Mile in March of 2009.

* Festival Of Light: Raced exclusive in the United States as a 3-year-old. Won the Godolphin Mile at age 4.


That is five editions of the Godolphin Mile won by horses who were primarily US based and US raced horses.

[Alabama Stakes]

so basically don't bet American hosses in Dubai ?
these stats are eye opening to say the least.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

so basically don't bet American hosses in Dubai ?
these stats are eye opening to say the least.

Unless they reinstall dirt... in which case, bet them strongly, and especially sprinting where the ROI was incredible.

[brockguy]

Pat, stupid question but the tote pools that US customers bet into, they also include money from South Africa and a few other countries right?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

We've been over this before Pat ... and look, I understand that you have to try and be a shill for Dubai.

No US horse has ever won the UAE Derby?

#1: Express Tour: Every single one of his 4 career start before he won the UAE Derby was at Calder. Every single start after he won the UAE Derby was made in the United States.

You are the only person in the world with an IQ over 100 who thinks Express Tour wasn't a US horse.

#2: Essence Of Dubai: ALL of his races at age 2 came in the United States. He broke his maiden at Hollywood. Was 3rd in the Best Pal. Won the Norfolk. Raced in the Breeders Cup.

#3: Discreet Cat: He won his debut at Saratoga for trainer Stanley Hough in jaw dropping fashion. Sure, the Arabs shelled out seven figures for him, but he's an American horse.

#4: Regal Ransom: He also broke his maiden at Saratoga and he competed in the Norfolk Stakes. He came from the Calder 2-year-old in training sale.

All four of these horses raced exclusively in the USA as 2-year-olds and were based here the whole year. That means, going into the UAE Derby, March of their 3yo season, they're considered American horses.

I guess my thought is that these are horses did all of their preparation in the UAE and were not shipped from America the week before the race, and put back on a plane to the US right after. Those are what I view as "American horses" to run in Dubai. You can call me a shill for Dubai racing, but if anything, I think I'm actually being quite critical of the records.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Godolphin Mile winning American horses:

* Grey Memo: Trained by Warren Stute -- 52 of his 54 career starts came in the United States. He twice shipped to Dubai, once winning the Godolphin Mile and once 2nd in the Godolphin Mile.

* Spring At Last: Trained by Doug O'Neill, he made 12 of his 13 career starts in the USA. His only start outside of the USA was a Godolphin Mile win.

* Diamond Stripes: Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. 15 of his 16 career starts came in the United States. Only race outside of the USA was his Godolphin Mile win.

* Two Step Salsa: All 8 of his first 8 career starts came in the USA in 2008. He won the Godolphin Mile in March of 2009.

* Festival Of Light: Raced exclusive in the United States as a 3-year-old. Won the Godolphin Mile at age 4.


That is five editions of the Godolphin Mile won by horses who were primarily US based and US raced horses.

I was speaking specifically of Godolphin Miles run on Tapeta at Meydan, on the all-weather, apologies for not making that clearer. I thought the "synth-loving" comment would have made that clear.